Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Dancerwithwings]

Ah, Keats.

Not sure he had the M25 in mind though.

Can't be M25 not enough traffic

[Captain Shortwave]

Better effort from the Azores high on this latest GFS run

 

Still, sucks to be me 

Much better from the UKMO too, the settled/unsettled merry-go-round continues

Edited September 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

14th to 22nd shows a return to warmer and drier conditions

 

[Methuselah]

Better effort from the Azores high on this latest GFS run

 

Still, sucks to be me 

Good to see that only one small corner of the UK would miss out on the sunshine...Oh, no, wait a Goddam minute there boy...it's the Triangle of Doom!   

Edited September 6, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue
a 'see change'!

[Summer Sun]

Positive steps from GFS this afternoon but the low over Iceland still wants to push the high south by the looks of it, how far south remains unclear at the moment

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is back where it was a few days ago with high pressure making a return

 

 

 

GFS has the high heading south and breaking up

 

 

Edited September 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Good to see that only one small corner of the UK would miss out on the sunshine...Oh, no, wait a Goddam minute there boy...it's the Triangle of Doom!   

Well someone had to say 

 

Patiently waiting for some rain!

Well you cursed us all Pete

 

Moving on, the UKMO at day 5 now looks good for just about everyone

Edited September 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[The PIT]

Got to admit I'm not been too impressed with the differences between GFS models runs this week. For Saturday the afternoon run has always had the rain further east than the morning run so Saturday here has been going from dry to wet here every day. So this morning had it dry now the 12 oz has a wet afternoon. We're now 24hrs away which is silly.  Apart from that it's looking like an autumnal week coming up with some impressive cool night in the mix at times.

[Summer Sun]

Temperatures heading towards the mid 20's for the south coast once again later next week according to GFS

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO following GFS at t144 with the high heading south

 

 

GFS

 

 

Longer term GFS brings the high back in

 

[Summer Sun]

High pressure moving into Greenland on this run in FI

 

 

Doesn't hang around too long though

 

Edited September 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

I think this chart sums up where we are at the moment

 

Soooo.... wasn't every model going for low pressure to our east at this time during the morning runs?

Again one cannot trust any model output at the moment as all of them are handling this situation very poorly. Once again too much energy was dug south to our east next week. Weaken that energy and the outlook becomes more settled as high pressure is encouraged to build back in.

Edited September 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

A decent early autumn run from the Gfs 12z operational this evening, that pesky shallow trough is pushed aside by an advancing atlantic ridge by midweek and the second half of the week brings a drier, warmer and sunnier spell, especially further southeast once the lingering residue of showery instability is shunted away from the uk into mainland europe, thereafter the most unsettled weather tends to brush across the northern third of the uk with the southern half of the uk not affected much at all, pressure remains that crucial bit higher across the south with the longest fine and pleasantly warm spells and just the occasional unsettled interruption although on this run, it does become windy at times as the isobars tighten up due to low pressure pushing east from iceland and high pressure to the south of the uk, during FI there is more evidence of a more generally settled and warm spell with light winds but we are now into the season of increasing fog risk overnight but daytime maximum temps would bounce back into the low 20's celsius which is absolutely nothing to be sniffed at as we head towards mid september, not bad at all the further south you are.

[Frosty.]

A noticeable improvement in the GEFS 12z mean, especially around the T+120-144 hours range, the lingering influence of the spoiler shallow trough is brushed aside more convincingly with a nicer look to the charts during the second half of next week, further ahead, it's better the further south you are and there are increasing signs of a more prolonged fine and warm spell by mid september or during the last few weeks of the month which is also what the met office are now mentioning, it doesn't look as though the PFJ is going to be going south of the uk for a long while yet.

Edited September 6, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

ECM follows GFS and UKMO

 

[Summer Sun]

After getting pushed south at t144 the high responds by forcing its way northwards again at t168

 

 

North south split at t216

 

Edited September 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

So cross model agreement for an unsettled next week to cross model agreement for a settled next week in 12 hours. Couldn't make it up really 

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends with a north south split

 

 

so tonight ECM has sort of returned to what it was showing a few days back when it was looking settled into FI

[summer blizzard]

So cross model agreement for an unsettled next week to cross model agreement for a settled next week in 12 hours. Couldn't make it up really 

 

Dry but cool, not all that much has changed for most of the UK bar a little more sunshine and less likelyhood of showers.

 

[Frosty.]

So cross model agreement for an unsettled next week to cross model agreement for a settled next week in 12 hours. Couldn't make it up really 

Yes I wonder what the 00z will be showing..

[ANYWEATHER]

And for those who say ecm is the superior model take a look at this:----  

[Frank Trough]

Dry but cool, not all that much has changed for most of the UK bar a little more sunshine and less likelyhood of showers.

 

 

did you see the ECM this morning? i think quite it's quite a big shift. High pressure far more prominant for the south in tonight's output generally. It's not the first time this summer the models have over-egged low pressure to our east, is it?

 

Is there an ECM archive? (i should know that).

 

but there is so much chopping and changing i just don't think it's worth bothering with output after t+96 at the moment.

 

one thing i am happy about is that sunday is much better than progged now after i stopped looking earlier in the week! fishing back on!

[Frank Trough]

And for those who say ecm is the superior model take a look at this:----  

 

it is superior. Statistically that cannot be argued. It beggars belief that people still post stuff like this.

 

Sure it has off days, but ALL the models have struggled recently. It's still the best and most likely to verify.

[Cloud 10]

NAEFS still banging the drum for a settled last third of September with notable +ve anomalies over and to the east of the UK,which ties in with the met office long range update.

 

[Frosty.]

It's very good to see the huge improvement in the Ecm 12z  tonight and it has a good chance of happening because there has also been a significant improvement in the GEFS mean as today has gone on, the 12z gefs is considerably more settled looking than the previous runs  so all we need now is the Ecm 12z ensemble mean to join the growing support for a much better outlook than how things looked first thing this morning, this is one of the reasons I love model watching so much, there are dramatic twists and turns, it's GREAT.