Model Output Discussion 18z 28/07/13

[Frosty.]

Why doesn't Gibby post his summaries himself anymore? They really are superb.

Yes but imho he could have been a bit kinder about the ecm 0z, next week would be a slowly improving story with a window of fine and warmer weather spreading from northwest to southeast during the second half of the week as the residual trough finally clears to the southeast allowing a slight pressure rise before the next trough slides southeast by the end of the week, I didn't get that impression from his ecm summary!

Edited September 6, 2013 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

I think some people were having a go at him earlier in the year for some stupid reason and he's not come back since

 

I have sent him an e-mail to see if he's coming back I shall report back when I get a reply

Which is a great shame, SS, as his summary was always the first place I looked each morning, for a clear and balanced summary of what the models were actually saying...

 

After all, we all know what we'd like them to be saying...

[Captain Shortwave]

24hrs on and things look considerably different across the model suite, with little if any sign of the high pressure dominance touted by both ECM and GFS for next week.  Both the big two now suggest a fairly cool and rather mixed pattern, with winds generally predominating from between west and north.  This is not to say we won't see some decent weather at times across the south in particular, but the summery charts allued to by ANYWEATHER are now conspicuous by their absence, pretty much as expected by many.

And in 24 hours time they could show something completely different again. I would say who could give any confidence in the models showing a cut off low to our east now, when we had good model agreement for cut off lows to our south and slap bang over the UK which have both been binned by the models over the past few days.

Snowking's post really sums it up, the MJO signal alone shows we have no definite direction to where our weather will be going. The best forecast you could say is that it won't be a hot as yesterday, but that's just stating the obvious 

[SomeLikeItHot]

Which is a great shame, SS, as his summary was always the first place I looked each morning, for a clear and balanced summary of what the models were actually saying... After all, we all know what we'd like them to be saying...

Agreed. His summaries were the best regular reports on this forum because he summarised all the main models and ensembles in a balanced way. If I was in a hurry and didn't have time to browse all the models myself you could count on the twice day summary from Gibby to give you a picture of what was going on. Hopefully he comes back.

[johnholmes]

Yes but he's wrong about the ecm 0z, next week would be a slowly improving story with a window of fine and warmer weather spreading from northwest to southeast during the second half of the week as the residual trough finally clears to the southeast allowing a slight pressure rise before the next trough slides southeast by the end of the week, I didn't get that impression from his ecm summary!

in your view frosty, myself I have no idea as I have not looked but for folks reading his and your summary it reads rather confusing, you cannot both be right in your ECM summation?

 

this is the link to the free Net Wx chart area and shows how the ECMWF run at 00z out to T+240 shows

Judge for yourselves?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=

Edited September 6, 2013 by johnholmes

[shedhead]

And in 24 hours time they could show something completely different again. I would say who could give any confidence in the models showing a cut off low to our east now, when we had good model agreement for cut off lows to our south and slap bang over the UK which have both been binned by the models over the past few days.

Snowking's post really sums it up, the MJO signal alone shows we have no definite direction to where our weather will be going. The best forecast you could say is that it won't be a hot as yesterday, but that's just stating the obvious 

I agree there is no definative pattern for next week, but to my mind we are looking at degrees of unsettled, rather than will it be unsettled or settled.  Overall I'd have the chance of an unsettled week at 70%, with the chance of a very unsettled or settled one at 20% and 10% respectively. Clearly the local picture will vary, but your location could end up seeing some of the worst of what's on offer, whilst my temporary base in W Dorset does quite well....relatively of course...

Edited September 6, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

Which is a great shame, SS, as his summary was always the first place I looked each morning, for a clear and balanced summary of what the models were actually saying...

 

After all, we all know what we'd like them to be saying...

Yes he is sorely missed, he is a first class poster but I think he could have airbrushed his ecm summary a bit to show the improvement between the first trough departing and the next trough incoming.

[shedhead]

Which is a great shame, SS, as his summary was always the first place I looked each morning, for a clear and balanced summary of what the models were actually saying...

 

After all, we all know what we'd like them to be saying...

Well it's up to you and the rest of the moderating team to ensure people are not made to feel like that Pete.  I'm sure there are plenty of other Gibby's out there who would like to contribute, but still feel unable or unwilling to do so. 

[Frosty.]

in your view frosty, myself I have no idea as I have not looked but for folks reading his and your summary it reads rather confusing, you cannot both be right in your ECM summation?

Sorry yes it's just my opinion that the ecm 00z improves as next week goes on, which it does if you follow the departing residual energy from the initial trough, it does improve for a time, I suppose i'm nit picking really.

[Frosty.]

in your view frosty, myself I have no idea as I have not looked but for folks reading his and your summary it reads rather confusing, you cannot both be right in your ECM summation?

 

this is the link to the free Net Wx chart area and shows how the ECMWF run at 00z out to T+240 shows

Judge for yourselves?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecm;sess=

I posted charts John which in my opinion show a slow improvement between the 2 troughs.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

GFS 06Z still keeping the theme of LP to the East of the UK.

 

 

 

No sign of high pressure moving over the UK before midweek at the very very very earliest.

 

Some showers or longers spells of rain for most.

The unsettled / cooler spell continues.

 

To me it just looks like the Azores is drifting back to its home.

Edited September 6, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[A.J]

Well it's up to you and the rest of the moderating team to ensure people are not made to feel like that Pete.  I'm sure there are plenty of other Gibby's out there who would like to contribute, but still feel unable or unwilling to do so. 

we certainly try our best thanks Shedhead, however sadly we are not all seeing deities with the power to turn seasoned troll like posters into respected contributors. The best attribute members can have is the attribute of self-moderation, the art of thinking before opening one's mouth.......it would certainly make all web forums a happy experience for all

 

and with that, back to the model output discussion

[Frosty.]

GFS 06Z still keeping the theme of LP to the East of the UK.

 

gfs-0-96.png

 

gfs-0-120.png

 

No sign of high pressure moving over the UK before midweek at the very very very earliest.

 

Some showers or longers spells of rain for most.

The unsettled / cooler spell continues.

yes the 6z next week indicates sunny periods and scattered heavy showers, feeling pleasantly warm in the sunshine..not so bad really?

[Captain Shortwave]

 

This chart is screaming undercut, a completely pointless undercut.

....which means the Azores high will be over us by the end of high resolution because it's the GFS 

Edited September 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

 

This chart is screaming undercut, a completely pointless undercut.

....which means the Azores high will be over us by the end of high resolution because it's the GFS 

It's not looking good for the triangle of doom is it captain.

[Captain Shortwave]

It's not looking good for the triangle of doom is it captain.

At least FI looks nice 

[UV-RAY]

GFS 06Z still keeping the theme of LP to the East of the UK.

 

gfs-0-96.png

 

gfs-0-120.png

 

No sign of high pressure moving over the UK before midweek at the very very very earliest.

 

Some showers or longers spells of rain for most.

The unsettled / cooler spell continues.

 

To me it just looks like the Azores is drifting back to its home.

IMO that's exactly how I think this will pan out, the Azores high never really getting a foothold leaving us in a cool unsettled regime.

[Summer Sun]

00z Ensembles once again don't look too bad at all with a steady rise above average from the 15th onwards.

 

 

Before the rise next week continues with below average uppers with the exception of the Aberdeen ensemble with they stay very close to average

Edited September 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The ECM 00Z mean also shows LP firmly anchored to East of UK. Mean supporting the op run.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z operational run indicates sunny periods and some showers, next monday looks more showery than sunday, sunday looks reasonable compared to tomorrow, tuesday looks very unsettled but then it becomes mainly dry with sunny spells and just the odd shower with temperatures slowly recovering back to average in the south but progressively cooler further north but it will feel pleasant in the sunny spells, rain spreads in from the northwest by the end of the week.. this is early autumn and the conditions next week look par for the course, during FI there is a large scandi high forming which has a few tries at settling our weather down, something to watch on future runs because it has been hinted at recently, all in all it's not bad at all, not a washout by any means, yes there will be a shallow trough slowly slipping away southeastwards with a slight build of pressure following southeastwards before the next trough, which skirts across the north at the end of next week.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean shows an improvement in our weather from midweek as a weak atlantic ridge topples southeastwards across the uk, chasing away the remains of the filling shallow trough which brings a mix of sunny periods and sharp showers during monday & tuesday, a more settled few days during the second half of next week with sunny spells and light winds with temperatures recovering to around 20 celsius or possibly into the low 70's F later in the week, the end of next week looks more unsettled but mostly across the north of the uk since the low is further north, pressure remains a bit higher to the south with more in the way of dry and bright weather. The further outlook shows a north/south split, the north of the BI, cumbria, northumberland, n.ireland and scotland in a more mobile zonal, broadly westerly pattern with spells of rain interspersed by sunshine and showers and temperatures around average for mid september, the further south you are, the trend is towards a more benign weather pattern with sunny spells and lighter winds and temperatures into the low 20's celsius but with cool nights and a growing risk of fog.

Edited September 6, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Interestingly the met office are going for a settled end to September in today's update pleasant by day but close to or slightly cooler than average at night

 

Sep 21st to Oct 5th

 

There are indications of rather more settled weather across many parts of the United Kingdom towards the end of September. As a result, it is likely to be drier than average in most areas. On the whole, daytime temperatures are likely to be around average, and perhaps a little above at times. Night-time temperatures should be close or slightly below average for the time of year. Any clear nights could allow mist and fog to develop in places. The weather may start to turn more unsettled during the first few days of October, particularly in the north, so there may be a greater chance of rain affecting some parts of the UK.

[Yarmy]

Interestingly the met office are going for a settled end to September in today's update pleasant by day but close to or slightly cooler than average at night

 

Sep 21st to Oct 5th

 

There are indications of rather more settled weather across many parts of the United Kingdom towards the end of September. As a result, it is likely to be drier than average in most areas. On the whole, daytime temperatures are likely to be around average, and perhaps a little above at times. Night-time temperatures should be close or slightly below average for the time of year. Any clear nights could allow mist and fog to develop in places. The weather may start to turn more unsettled during the first few days of October, particularly in the north, so there may be a greater chance of rain affecting some parts of the UK.

 

 

Sounds like absolutely perfect September weather to me.

[Dancerwithwings]

With daytime temps perhaps a little above average and Night-time temps below average maybe plenty of inversion and maybe this,

 

[Yarmy]

With daytime temps perhaps a little above average and Night-time temps below average maybe plenty of inversion and maybe this,

 

 

 

Ah, Keats.

Not sure he had the M25 in mind though.