Convective / Storm Discussion - 5th August onwards 2013

[Emz by the Thames]

So it's look the met have seen somethign that isn't there. Oh dear.

I have literally lost count of the amount of times that has happened this year.

 

We may be in luck later. Just hit 26.c here and so muggy.  Call me a psychosomatic hippy if you like but I've got a 'weather headache' - the type I only get if it's going to thunder later. I'm going to look a right fool when we get zilch in the way of thunder later!!

Edited August 23, 2013 by Team Squirrel

[Costa Del Fal]

Well there is already thunder happening!

Where? Nothing recently.

 

Whilst every situation is different it seems a few have not learnt from past events. Very rarely does this set up deliver imo.

[Harsh Climate]

Very funny but Im sorry, there is nothing that shows me there will be Thunder. You will 90% be likely disappointed.  Very isolated rumbles I wont exclude but it seems some like yourself are expecting proper storms. Its not happening.

 

Someone will have egg on their face come 9pm tonight 

[TonyH]

My instinct dictates thunder for areas east of here pm!

Where? Nothing recently.

 

Whilst every situation is different it seems a few have not learnt from past events. Very rarely does this set up deliver imo.

Try reading the thread sferics Irish Sea recently

[Guest William Grimsley]

Its kicking off with those bursts near Anglesy 'sfericing'!

Lovely!

[Methuselah]

My instinct dictates thunder for areas east of here pm!

Sounds like your 'instinct' and my wishful-thinking are in tune then, Tony? 

[Evening thunder]

I don't know whether there will be much thundery activity tonight/tomorrow, but I think some could be getting a little ahead of themselves.. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some mid level instability and storms in places (further east than my location though). The Met Office/BBC must be seeing some potential to talk about it, although it could more be a story of rain than frequent lightning activity. Surely it would be better wait until after the event to try and knock a forecast? I have seen some good storms when the GFS CAPE charts on Netweather show next to nothing, especially elevated storms.

 

I seem to hold a different opinion, and think they are more or less forecasting what they actually expect to happen.. although this is subject to different interpretations by BBC forecasters and also the public who hear the forecasts. 

Though as far as I can tell the Met Office forecasts on their website and warnings just say 'thundery' downpours rather than 'thunderstorms'.. if heavy/torrential downpours occur in places with perhaps a few sefrics thrown in, they will have been right.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Someone will have egg on their face come 9pm tonight 

Hehe!

[Guest William Grimsley]

I don't know whether there will be much thundery activity tonight/tomorrow, but I think some could be getting a little ahead of themselves.. I wouldn't be surprised if there was some mid level instability and storms in places (further east than my location though). The Met Office/BBC must be seeing some potential to talk about it, although it could more be a story of rain than frequent lightning activity. Surely it would be better wait until after the event to try and knock a forecast? I have seen some good storms when the GFS CAPE charts on Netweather show next to nothing, especially elevated storms.

 

I seem to hold a different opinion, and think they are more or less forecasting what they actually expect to happen.. although this is subject to different interpretations by BBC forecasters and also the public who hear the forecasts. 

Though as far as I can tell the Met Office forecasts on their website and warnings just say 'thundery' downpours rather than 'thunderstorms'.. if heavy/torrential downpours occur in places with perhaps a few sefrics thrown in, they will have been right.

Well done, Sam. You're correct.

Very rarely does this set up deliver imo.

What does 'imo' mean?

Try reading the thread sferics Irish Sea recently

Hehe!

[Harsh Climate]

Nice bbc forecast. Starting to see the odd scud cloud, always a good indicater for storms.

[Guest William Grimsley]

Nice bbc forecast. Starting to see the odd scud cloud, always a good indicater for storms.

I'm seeing loads of scud clouds at Newton Poppleford Weather.

[cheese]

Heavy showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely late this afternoon and this evening across parts of northern England and southeast Scotland.The public should be aware of the potential for localised torrential downpours, accompanied by thunder and lightning, bringing the risk of surface water flooding and some disruption, for example to travel.

[Guest William Grimsley]

I think the lightning strikes over the Irish Sea are inaccurate. There actually being plotted outside of the showery rain.

 

Newton Poppleford Weather, is still seeing quite a few altocumulus and now castellanus clouds especially in the S and W.

[Norfolk Sheep]

Philip Avery had his concerned look and spoke in hushed tones on the BBC news weather just now   Oo er missus

[TonyH]

I think the lightning strikes over the Irish Sea are inaccurate. There actually being plotted outside of the showery rain.

 

Newton Poppleford Weather, is still seeing quite a few altocumulus and now castellanus clouds especially in the S and W.

They will be accurate William they just tend to appear after the rain blobs have passed, they could relate to the heavy echoes to their east.

Edited August 23, 2013 by TonyH

[Biggin]

Here at Coney Hall Weather, its getting hazier, if thats a word. Not as warm as I was expecting it to be.

Edited August 23, 2013 by Biggin

[Methuselah]

Philip Avery had his concerned look and spoke in hushed tones on the BBC news weather just now   Oo er missus

Bugger all storms, then! 

[Chris.R]

there have been no sferics in the last 15 minutes, for sure.

[A.J]

thick altocumulous castellanus cloud sheet here now, with just the odd chink of sunshine....25C and very muggy but currrently dry.....a nice discrete cell has popped up around 15 miles to my east between Hungerford & Newbury.............as far as the bbq goes, the gazeebo is currently being erected in the back garden, bbq pit covered with a huge fosters parasol that I've knicked from a pub, so whatever the weather this evening, we're good to go, hell, the rain will help the excess beer stay cool!

[Coast]

Philip Avery had his concerned look and spoke in hushed tones on the BBC news weather just now 

 

Why? 

[Cheshire Freeze]

thick altocumulous castellanus cloud sheet here now, with just the odd chink of sunshine....25C and very muggy but currrently dry.....a nice discrete cell has popped up around 15 miles to my east between Hungerford & Newbury.............as far as the bbq goes, the gazeebo is currently being erected in the back garden, bbq pit covered with a huge fosters parasol that I've knicked from a pub, so whatever the weather this evening, we're good to go, hell, the rain will help the excess beer stay cool!

 

Living the high life AJ

 

Just out of curiosity, how the hell do you take a parasol from a pub un-noticed  Did you pretend it was an umbrella your missus brought with you before leaving the house lol.

Edited August 23, 2013 by CreweCold

[Coast]

What does 'imo' mean?

 

Investigative Meteorological Organisations....

 

 

 

 

 

Or it could be In My Opinion? :winky: 

[TwisterGirl81]

Sorry If I moan but why oh why is the southeast that always get the best thunderstorms, we've had one in Exeter this year with some rain and a few flashes *sigh*  It's very rare to get a good old fashioned thunderstorm here

 

You lucky so and so's!

[Coast]

Sorry If I moan but why oh why is the southeast that always get the best thunderstorms, we've had one in Exeter this year with some rain and a few flashes *sigh*  It's very rare to get a good old fashioned thunderstorm here

 

You lucky so and so's!

 

Erm we don't have any currently and there is a low prospect of us getting any for a while + it's been relatively quiet all year here too TG81?

[Bogman]

Sorry If I moan but why oh why is the southeast that always get the best thunderstorms, we've had one in Exeter this year with some rain and a few flashes *sigh*  It's very rare to get a good old fashioned thunderstorm here

 

You lucky so and so's!

 

 

I've also had one this year, and that was for 5 minutes. You want storms, go to America. Just spent two wonderful weeks in Florida having every type of storm imaginable chucked at me. Best holiday I've had in ages.