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Convective / Storm Discussion - 5th August onwards 2013

Jane Louise

By Jane Louise
in Storms & Severe Weather

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

Interesting shower starting in Cornwall, is intensifying and heading towards Newton Poppleford. This could be interesting.

Nice one ^Showers really cranking up in places now, active looking area just offshore near Skegness at the mo.

Yes, a very intense shower about 10 miles ENE of Skegness, at the moment! :D

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Skeggy Winter Storm Contributor

Skeggy Winter Storm

Posted
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Heat thundersnow heatwaves and freezing fog
  • Location: Skegness,lincolnshire
Posted

Had this invade us in skeg earlier no thunder but some torrential rain

post-18162-0-06129400-1376591773_thumb.j

post-18162-0-02883500-1376591822_thumb.j

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

Had this invade us in skeg earlier no thunder but some torrential rain

Lovely photos, Skeggy summer! :D

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cheese Veteran

cheese

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
Posted

Had this invade us in skeg earlier no thunder but some torrential rain

God has finally unleashed his wrath on Skegness. Posted Image

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weatherobsuk Veteran

weatherobsuk

Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
Posted

Lights been flickering here a few times the past half an hour, nothing outside to note other than the usual cloud and rain however. A world-away from this afternoons weather of mid-level cumulus and t-shirt temps.

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nitro_deluxe Contributor

nitro_deluxe

Posted
Posted

Interesting shower starting in Cornwall, is intensifying and heading towards Newton Poppleford. This could be interesting.Yes, a very intense shower about 10 miles ENE of Skegness, at the moment! :D

Aye typical..it even gave a few sferics out at sea, what a waste! :)Rain steadily falling, warm rain at that.
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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

Aye typical..it even gave a few sferics out at sea, what a waste! Posted Image

Rain steadily falling, warm rain at that.

Yeah it's dissipated into drizzly rain. Can I ask? What does 'sferics' mean? :D

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted (edited) · Hidden
Hidden

Lightning William, stuff of dreams hehe...

Oh right, oh yes...

But, surely. You must be reffering to the old shower that was 10 miles ENE of Skegness, not the shower over Cornwall...Posted Image

Edited by William Grimsley
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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

Lightning William, stuff of dreams hehe...

Oh right, oh yes...

 

 

 

But, surely. You must be reffering to the old shower that was 10 miles ENE of Skegness, not the shower over Cornwall...Posted Image

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

No forecasts out from the 'big guns' today yet, but GFS throws this up in the middle of the Home Counties later:

 

Posted Image

 

Is it on to something?

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Coast
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

NMM liking that thought too:

 

post-6667-0-63354100-1376636975_thumb.pn post-6667-0-95866600-1376636976_thumb.pn

 

post-6667-0-16821000-1376636974_thumb.pn post-6667-0-87197100-1376636977_thumb.pn

 

 

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted (edited)

Forecast Skew T is OK, it may kick off a little storm although the 'K index' isn't great:

 

Posted Image

Edited by Coast
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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

Valid: 16/08/2013 0830z to 17/08/2013 0600zHeadline: THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

post-1052-0-73626800-1376639567_thumb.jp

 

SynopsisUpper trough slides in from the west through today, ahead of the trough a split cold front will continue to slide southeastwards across England and Wales, the trailing surface cold front clears SE England this evening.

 

... S/SE ENGLAND, S MIDLANDS & E ANGLIA ...

 

Upper cold front and associated dynamic uplift of mid-upper level moisture producing rainfall will continue to spread and clear SE across S/SE England through the morning. Behind the upper front, a shallow layer of surface moisture will still exist ahead of the trailing surface cold front. Where cloud breaks and insolation occur in this zone between fronts, temps of 21-24C and drier air aloft overunning the moist surface layer will allow sufficient CAPE (300-500 j/kg) for surface based convection to develop near or ahead of surface cold front. Therefore, isolated thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon/early evening in the above areas, perhaps focused into lines along convergence associated with the surface front. Intense rainfall is possible with any cells, with a risk of localised flooding, along with hail and gusty winds.

 

... EIRE ...

 

A few scattered thunderstorms appear likely across ROI/N Ireland this afternoon as steep lapse rates beneath passing upper trough generate sufficiently strong convection with surface heating.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

Edited by Nick F
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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

Valid: 16/08/2013 0830z to 17/08/2013 0600z

Headline: THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

Posted Imageconvmap_160813.jpg

 

Synopsis

Upper trough slides in from the west through today, ahead of the trough a split cold front will continue to slide southeastwards across England and Wales, the trailing surface cold front clears SE England this evening.

 

... S/SE ENGLAND, S MIDLANDS & E ANGLIA ...

 

Upper cold front and associated dynamic uplift of mid-upper level moisture producing rainfall will continue to spread and clear SE across S/SE England through the morning. Behind the upper front, a shallow layer of surface moisture will still exist ahead of the trailing surface cold front. Where cloud breaks and insolation occur in this zone between fronts, temps of 21-24C and drier air aloft overunning the moist surface layer will allow sufficient CAPE (300-500 j/kg) for surface based convection to develop near or ahead of surface cold front. Therefore, isolated thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon/early evening in the above areas, perhaps focused into lines along convergence associated with the surface front. Intense rainfall is possible with any cells, with a risk of localised flooding, along with hail and gusty winds.

 

... EIRE ...

 

A few scattered thunderstorms appear likely across ROI/N Ireland this afternoon as steep lapse rates beneath passing upper trough generate sufficiently strong convection with surface heating.

 

Issued by: Nick Finnis

It looks like I'm right on the edge of that zone covering E SW England, Midlands, E England and SE England. So, I might be in for a chance of seeing some shower activity later this afternoon.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Netweather and this thread seem to be out on their own with potential for today. Do the others know something we don't or are they all on holiday?

 

Warning of rain out for the areas under consideration:

 

 

Issued at: 
1054 on Fri 16 Aug 2013
 
Valid from: 
1305 on Fri 16 Aug 2013
 
Valid to: 
2100 on Fri 16 Aug 2013
 
Following the clearance of this morning's rain, isolated but very heavy, thundery downpours may develop this afternoon across parts of central and eastern England and as far south as parts of London. The public should be aware of the risk of very localised disruption due to surface water flooding, especially if such a downpour were to hit urban areas, or occur during the busy evening period. As often happens in such situations many places should miss the worst. 
A cold front will move slowly eastwards across the area this afternoon and evening. With the presence of warm moist air near the front, isolated very heavy downpours may develop, triggered by rising temperatures through this afternoon. However, the situation will remain very finely-balanced and so the extent of shower or thunderstorm development remains uncertain. 

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=ee&from=rss&sn=90ABAD13-1527-7BD3-E87C-8674C9C104DA_1_EE&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1376607600

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Line of convection now between Oxford and The Wash - marking the trailing surface cold front, no sferics as of yet though.

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted

Line of convection now between Oxford and The Wash - marking the trailing surface cold front, no sferics as of yet though.

 

Indeed, I spotted that too. Local forecast suggested the area effected firstly would be parts of Berkshire and Oxfordshire before transferring East and clearing the London area by about 4pm. I think they've got that wrong as I have intermittent sunshine now and the West Berkshire area appears not to be in the area of risk.

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TheToastPeople Enthusiast

TheToastPeople

Posted
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Fire tornado
  • Location: Bedford Bedfordshire
Posted

That line of convection went over here about 15 mins ago, had 1.8mm and it got pretty dark and cold. Suns back out now, hope this sparks something later this afternoon!

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

The Met Office have gone OTT again. Only a few heavy showers in the warning area giving nothing more than local surface water.

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Sprites Seasoned

Sprites

Posted
  • Location: South East UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/squalls/hoar-frost/mist
  • Location: South East UK
Posted

18mm here in around 23mins, only heard one sferic on the radio.

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Guest William Grimsley

Guest William Grimsley

Posted
Posted

Yeah I can vouch for that, not seen rain like it in ages. Ended up falling for about 45 minutes so wouldn't be surprised if we got almost an inch from it!

Yeah, I bet. Easily maybe 1 1/2 inches if 18.0 mm of rainfall fell in 23 minutes that would be 36.0 mm of rainfall fell in 45 minutes!

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