Convective / Storm Discussion - 5th August onwards 2013

[Harry]

I think you've answered that thoroughly H! Remember the TT index is only a guide to be used with other indicators and experience - it has it's followers and non-followers.

 

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=spotterglossary4

 

When its had oranges and reds so far this year its often led to decent storms I tend to find it useful in conjunction with MLCAPE charts!

[nitro_deluxe]

Showers beginning to kick off now, mainly E Mids across to E Anglia - will Nottingham see a show? Lincs too in firing line later.

[Convective]

 

Main risk today looks North Eastern Wales into parts of North West England later on.

[Allseasons-Si]

 

Main risk today looks North Eastern Wales into parts of North West England later on.

Eh!,you shure C,i was just contemplating heading into lincolnshire,now i am torn

[Convective]

Eh!,you shure C,i was just contemplating heading into lincolnshire,now i am torn

 

For later on into the evening I would say it looks good up Wales/ NW England but as for before then, it's a hard one! Anywhere Midlands northwards!

[Allseasons-Si]

For later on into the evening I would say it looks good up Wales/ NW England but as for before then, it's a hard one! Anywhere Midlands northwards!

There is a horizontal line of heavyish ppn in the midlands at the mo,twiddling thumbs on what to do

 

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0

 

i will sit and wait for the first sferic lol.

Edited August 22, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Chris.R]

Convective, I hope you are right.

[Allseasons-Si]

Convective, I hope you are right.

Who said the northwesterners don't post anymore 

 

convective,youv'e done it now lol.

[ChezWeather]

Showers beginning to kick off now, mainly E Mids across to E Anglia - will Nottingham see a show? Lincs too in firing line later.

Notts has been the storm capital of 2013 so far. 

[Guest William Grimsley]

TT index looks at storm strength - I looked up on google the following chart which aids the chart interpretation

 

44 Convection not likely

44-50 Likely thunderstorms

51-52 Isolated severe storms

53-56 Widely scattered severe

56 Scattered severe storms

 

The purples on the chart indicate values way down in the 30s - therefore, convection is unlikely in areas shaded white/purple/blue.

 

On this sort of chart ideally you want to be under yellows/oranges/reds....rather confusingly, on a CAPE chart, purple indicates extremely high convective potential....isnt it all confusing

 

Coast I'm sure will have a much better grasp of a TT chart than me

Thanks very much for your explanation, Harry. That really helps.

[Coast]

Anywhere Midlands northwards!

 

I'll say Midlands South and Eastwards (not to be difficult, just a hunch based on this mornings charts) 

[Guest William Grimsley]

There is a horizontal line of heavyish ppn in the midlands at the mo,twiddling thumbs on what to do

 

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0

 

i will sit and wait for the first sferic lol.

Nothing much yet. Just some normal showers.

[Allseasons-Si]

Nothing much yet. Just some normal showers.

I reckon within a hour or so things should start to electrify.

[Guest William Grimsley]

I reckon within a hour or so things should start to electrify.

Yeah nothing for Newton Poppleford Weather or SW England, though.

Sunday Evening looks interesting for SW England...

Thoughts?

 

[Eye to the sky]

Slinging it down here in Derby,feeling very muggy too,nothing electrical as yet though.

[nitro_deluxe]

Notts has been the storm capital of 2013 so far. 

Certainly has had it's fair share...Newark, Lincoln places to be, again the A46 providing useful access for any chasers first cracks of thunder any minute now...

Discreet area of showers Welshpool too, wouldn't be at all surprised to see more develop north and east of here, these unlikely to be electrified though but locally heavy.

[Guest William Grimsley]

first cracks of thunder any minute now...

Nothing as yet...

[nitro_deluxe]

Nothing as yet...

Very hit and miss today, as always lol. Storms do like to congregate in the Notts Lincs area a fair bit, they must prefer the flatter landscape

[Guest William Grimsley]

Very hit and miss today, as always lol. Storms do like to congregate in the Notts Lincs area a fair bit, they must prefer the flatter landscape

Yeah, as always. Yeah lucky them, yeah must be that LOL

 

Main risk today looks North Eastern Wales into parts of North West England later on.

I really wish that chart was correct as then we would have a chance of seeing some showers, today.

[nitro_deluxe]

Still think there'll be some better chances in the next few weeks including the SW...any transition between seasons can be a bumpy one? Throw in a heat spike and hopefully more get to see a show or two or three or four lol.

Can't believe just how quick August has flown by!

[ChezWeather]

Looks like a nice cell developing west of Peterborough! 

 

Still dry here, feeling very humid 

Edited August 22, 2013 by ChezzieStorms

[nitro_deluxe]

Saturday also looking good, chance of more widespread thundery rain and showers. All eyes

[Coast]

Dew points and humidity are quite high this afternoon in the areas under consideration, another ingredient ticked, but will it kick off in the next couple of hours?

 

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Still think there'll be some better chances in the next few weeks including the SW...

I hope so...

[Allseasons-Si]

Discreet area of showers Welshpool too,

Yes,keeping an eye or two on that area,is this a developing area that convective was ona bout maybe,we shall see.

 

still sat twiddling lol.

Edited August 22, 2013 by allseasons-si