Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[UV-RAY]

Thanks C, such a pattern could of course be indicative of mid-latitude HP around the UK with low pressure over Europe. That would fit with the QBO profile, and the concern for cold fans in the UK is that HLB may not be achievable this winter.other than perhaps occasional ridging Northward.

That's what a few of the long range models are predicting and one which seems quite feasible. A lot will depend on the strat profile if we are to see any mid Atlantic high ridge northwards.

Edited October 28, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[bobbydog]

although I agree with you that its not the only factor, I believe its one of the main factors in controlling our weather, also has anyone noticed since the sunspots have risen Mount Etna has erupted, surely IF the sun has an effect on volcanos it must have an effect on out very delicate weather system

 

my dog has been farting a lot today. it must be the sun-spots......

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

my dog has been farting a lot today. it must be the sun-spots......

 

That's odd! So has mine 

 

What you been feeding him/her?

 

I knew I shouldn't have given mine them sausages last night!

Edited October 28, 2013 by Essex Easterly.

[johnholmes]

although I agree with you that its not the only factor, I believe its one of the main factors in controlling our weather, also has anyone noticed since the sunspots have risen Mount Etna has erupted, surely IF the sun has an effect on volcanos it must have an effect on out very delicate weather system

 

what proof have you that Mt Etna errupted after the sunpots increased? Sure it has occurred but there is absolutely no link that you have shown. Are you telling us that the increase in suspot activity is directly related to the storm just passed?

[fluid dynamic]

my dog has been farting a lot today. it must be the sun-spots......

The explanation is that the low atmospheric pressure has increased the differential between his guts and the atmosphere. I rest my case, no further questions

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the met office are going for a mild winter,  though as you would expect even in milder winters occasional cold spells can't be ruled out

 

For November-December-January above-average temperatures are considered more likely than below, though this signal is likely strongly influenced by the expected mild November. Overall the probability that the UK-mean temperature for November-December-January will be in the warmest of our five categories is close to 30% and the probability that it will fall into the coldest category is approximately 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

 

Tropical stratospheric conditions, meanwhile, are now in a strong westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase, which has an established link to autumn and winter time conditions over northwestern Europe, favouring positive North Atlantic Oscillation.

 

Latest computer model forecasts indeed favour westerly or southwesterly atmospheric flow over northwestern Europe, including the UK. At this time of year this is typically associated with milder-, wetter- and stormier-than-average conditions

 

In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost. Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milder winters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2821728

Edited October 28, 2013 by Summer Sun

[carinthian]

Thanks C, such a pattern could of course be indicative of mid-latitude HP around the UK with low pressure over Europe. That would fit with the QBO profile, and the concern for cold fans in the UK is that HLB may not be achievable this winter.other than perhaps occasional ridging Northward.

 

Yes Ian, thats what I read into the forecast. Would be initially good for us regarding snowfall in Central Eastern Europe with the latitudinal Atlantic flow deflected poleward and then sent southwards. They have a strong signal that long term Northern blocking seems unlikely as was the case last winter and early spring. However, thats still a long way off and we have still i/3rd of the Autumn season to get through.

C

[Ian Brown]

Thanks SS, yes that is certainly a coming off the fence (for the METO) for what will be the first two thirds of winter. The mild November is of course a no brainer given the well established uber zonal pattern – but clearly they see this pattern continuing broadly for December and January.

 

I believe the May SST profile indicated –NAO conditions being more prevalent for the winter but obviously the MET are happy with the long range models as they see them now. December is usually zonal anyway and we could see a well established PV over Greenland by the end of November.

[Boro Snow]

what a truly horrible post gav you have just ruined my day 

[UV-RAY]

Means ansotuletly nothing and if this is like any other of their long range press releases then it's probably wise to stock up on grit right now. Another barbecue summer catastrophe awaits me thinks.

[smithyweather]

Thanks SS, yes that is certainly a coming off the fence (for the METO) for what will be the first two thirds of winter. The mild November is of course a no brainer given the well established uber zonal pattern – but clearly they see this pattern continuing broadly for December and January.

 

I believe the May SST profile indicated –NAO conditions being more prevalent for the winter but obviously the MET are happy with the long range models as they see them now. December is usually zonal anyway and we could see a well established PV over Greenland by the end of November.

Not really, anything can happen. It may only be a no brainier because that is what you want. You can't really say what the weather is going to be like 3 or 4 weeks in advance with any great deal of confidence.

And lets be honest, their models are not exactly that great. Looking at the video that Gavin on the other weather forum made-quite a few of the models forecast us to have a cooler than average winter and late autumn, I think them and only one other model out of 5 or 6 forecast mild. 

Edited October 28, 2013 by smithyweather

[Ian Brown]

Not really, anything can happen. It may only be a no brainier because that is what you want. You can't really say what the weather is going to be like 3 or 4 weeks in advance.

 

With the zonality we have established, you can be reasonably confident of the next 10 days. Not the day to day set-up by days 8 or 9 but of the general broad pattern - and the METO have indicated that the current pattern is in place till the end of November as per their 16-30 dayer issued today.

[smithyweather]

With the zonality we have established, you can be reasonably confident of the next 10 days. Not the day to day set-up by days 8 or 9 but of the general broad pattern - and the METO have indicated that the current pattern is in place till the end of November as per their 16-30 dayer issued today.

 

So basically the Met Office control the weather then and their 16-30 day forecasts are always right?

 

Not really.

 

If you watch his videos theres one of them with a temp graph for November and it seems to suggest temps dropping alot into the Middle of November. Looking back at the October chart it was pretty accurate. 

[UV-RAY]

With the zonality we have established, you can be reasonably confident of the next 10 days. Not the day to day set-up by days 8 or 9 but of the general broad pattern - and the METO have indicated that the current pattern is in place till the end of November as per their 16-30 dayer issued today.

quite agree the next 10-15 days look like a continuation but to use the 16-30 day forecast as a god given is stretching it a bit as we all know how they can switch in an instant. I'm not suggesting they will but the chances of them changing are at least 50/50 . Edited October 28, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Ian Brown]

So basically the Met Office control the weather then and their 16-30 day forecasts are always right?

 

Not really.

 

If you watch his videos theres one of them with a temp graph for November and it seems to suggest temps dropping alot into the Middle of November. Looking back at the October chart it was pretty accurate. 

 

 

They are not always right with these and they can change, but for the moment they are not seeing anything that indicates a change from the zonal barrage.

[Weather-history]

 

I believe the May SST profile indicated –NAO conditions being more prevalent for the winter

Never have been convinced by this. Why would SSTs in a specific period of time in a year would have some kind of influence 6 months later?

[Captain Shortwave]

quite agree the next 10-15 days look like a continuation but to use the 16-30 day forecast as a god given is stretching it a bit as we all know how they can switch in an instant. I'm not suggesting they will but the chances of them changing are at least 50/50 .

Indeed, though I feel for the time being we will be looking for northerly topplers rather than high latitude blocking. ECM showed one this morning and the UKMO is trying to turn the jet more NW/SE which would bring cooler conditions.

[bobbydog]

Means ansotuletly nothing and if this is like any other of their long range press releases then it's probably wise to stock up on grit right now. Another barbecue summer catastrophe awaits me thinks.

 you could be right. winter is still a long way off. to be fair to the meto though, they are going on current indicators, which they would have done back in 2009 (the bbq summer) they will be fully aware that things could change in a relatively short time and will adjust their forecast accordingly

 

sound-bites are always a useful tool to those who like to pillory people and organisations in the public eye

[throwoff]

Still can go either way.

 

It is STILL October!

[UV-RAY]

you could be right. winter is still a long way off. to be fair to the meto though, they are going on current indicators, which they would have done back in 2009 (the bbq summer) they will be fully aware that things could change in a relatively short time and will adjust their forecast accordingly sound-bites are always a useful tool to those who like to pillory people and organisations in the public eye

Indeed bd and least we forget they are probabilities not a forecast.

[irishlad69]

what proof have you that Mt Etna errupted after the sunpots increased? Sure it has occurred but there is absolutely no link that you have shown. Are you telling us that the increase in suspot activity is directly related to the storm just passed?

 

maybe I will just keep my comments to myself,  I thought this forum was different, maybe not

[Summer Sun]

Still can go either way.

 

It is STILL October!

 

But it will be November on Friday and the countdown to winter will be well underway

Edited October 28, 2013 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

maybe I will just keep my comments to myself,  I thought this forum was different, maybe not

 

Nothing wrong with looking for evidence, irishlad69. Better to have our assumptions challenged than to slip into the mindset of believing things without evidence!

[throwoff]

Nothing wrong with looking for evidence, irishlad69. Better to have our assumptions challenged than to slip into the mindset of believing things without evidence!

 

I call that 'Madden-ing'

[bobbydog]

Looks like the met office are going for a mild winter,  though as you would expect even in milder winters occasional cold spells can't be ruled out

 

For November-December-January above-average temperatures are considered more likely than below, though this signal is likely strongly influenced by the expected mild November. Overall the probability that the UK-mean temperature for November-December-January will be in the warmest of our five categories is close to 30% and the probability that it will fall into the coldest category is approximately 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

 

Tropical stratospheric conditions, meanwhile, are now in a strong westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase, which has an established link to autumn and winter time conditions over northwestern Europe, favouring positive North Atlantic Oscillation.

 

Latest computer model forecasts indeed favour westerly or southwesterly atmospheric flow over northwestern Europe, including the UK. At this time of year this is typically associated with milder-, wetter- and stormier-than-average conditions

 

In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost. Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milder winters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2821728

 

i should just point out gavin, that this is for the period nov-dec-jan. it states that the forecast for this period will be "strongly influenced by the expected mild november" it does not say that december and january will be mild.

 

also- "At this time of year this is typically associated with milder-, wetter- and stormier-than-average conditions" it is not suggesting the whole winter.

 

the last sentence is slightly misleading- "However, even during milder winters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January." not necessarily this particular winter, especially considering the forecast period includes the last month of autumn

 

just to re-iterate- this is not a winter forecast, it is a computer model average temperature prediction for the next 3 months, including the last month of autumn which is expected to be well above average. therefore december and january could be below average and this forecast would still be correct