Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Buriedundersnow]

for all you snow lovers out there...just thought id let you know that it is snowing heavily in Calgary today

 

post some pics

[Summer Sun]

post some pics

 

http://www.cbc.ca/calgary/webcam/cgy_roofcam.jpg

[cheeky_monkey]

post some pics

[Buriedundersnow]

heres the winter model round up from gavsweathervids quite a mixed bag just depends what models your gonna trust

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ritNKVo2F5k#t=1123

[Conor Sherwin]

 

post some pics

 

wheres that ??

[kippure]

for all you snow lovers out there...just thought id let you know that it is snowing heavily in Calgary today

 

[Conor Sherwin]

 

weres that 

[NorthYorksWeather]

weres that 

 

Its in Alberta Canada Conor!

[smithyweather]

It's a bit too slushy for my liking. 

[johnholmes]

It's a bit too slushy for my liking. 

patience lad, CM sees 'real' snow and in considerable depth from any time now for 5 months!

[Conor Sherwin]

Its in Alberta Canada Conor!

ok thanks what advantages dose it have 4 the uk and ireland 4 snow ???

[Summer Sun]

ok thanks what advantages dose it have 4 the uk and ireland 4 snow ???

 

Not a lot I would imagine they get snow like that every year

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Maybe we should get used to cold winters..

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/posts/Real-risk-of-a-Maunder-minimum-Little-Ice-Age-says-leading-scientist

[cyclonic happiness]

Not a lot I would imagine they get snow like that every year

It's not 'proper' snow though is it? It can't be, otherwise Canada would grind to a halt and people would panic buy when the first inch falls.

 

No...they shall never get 'proper' snow like wot we get ere in the UK! :-P

[Ian Brown]

It's a bit too slushy for my liking. 

Lol, you may not even see that this winter !

[irishlad69]

hi all,  am new on here, have been reading over the past couple of weeks and its good to see a forum that actually discusses the weather and not slagging other people off in regards to the weather, I believe that unless the sunspot number decreases rapidly we will be having a very warm and wet winter, which In my case is bad news as I am a severe cold lover

[RCT]

hi all,  am new on here, have been reading over the past couple of weeks and its good to see a forum that actually discusses the weather and not slagging other people off in regards to the weather, I believe that unless the sunspot number decreases rapidly we will be having a very warm and wet winter, which In my case is bad news as I am a severe cold lover

The weather isn't just controlled by sunspots there are many factors to consider. 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

I'm sure someone mentioned once the storm has passed it's meant to get milder?

 

All the temperature has done here is climb! It's over 15 degrees again!   

 

When's it gonna end 

[Buriedundersnow]

The weather isn't just controlled by sunspots there are many factors to consider. 

 

its been proven though that during periods of low solar activity it does have affects on our weather and probably a greater affect than other factors as it seems to line up pretty well with really cold periods.

[UV-RAY]

I think what we haven't taken much notice of over the years is the UV output which has only recently surfaced as being an important factor regarding  pressure patterns around the NH. I've an article by Joanna Haigh on this somewhere in my files, I'll try and locate it and download a link.

 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/solar-variability

Edited October 28, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[carinthian]

Hi for what is worth ,we have our winter forecast for resort : The source of information have a 60 %  successful accuracy rate over the past 2 years for seasonal forecasts in our region.

This winter forecast follows a continuation of the run of warm Autumns:

Generally, it says December will be the coldest month of the winter with northerly incursions, which would suggest more of a blocking over the UK. January around average temperatures with colder incursions from the east ( itself not unusually for this location ). Milder Atlantic winds to push in earlier in than normal and hints at above average temperatures for the end of February and into March ( which would suggest tropical maritime weather type )

So based on this forecast, we can expect some substantial snowfall in December ,which hopefully should last the drier month of January and into the peak ski-ing season in February .

Obviously, this is not a forecast for the United Kingdom but would indicate some colder blocking set up here in December and into January before becoming milder during February ?

Anyway, what will be, will be !

C

[smithyweather]

Lol, you may not even see that this winter !

Think I will to be honest. Only a few cm's. I don't live in st ives

[Don]

Lol, you may not even see that this winter !

 

Well, pre-2009 I would certainly have considered myself to be lucky to see that much snow in Winter!

[irishlad69]

The weather isn't just controlled by sunspots there are many factors to consider. 

although I agree with you that its not the only factor, I believe its one of the main factors in controlling our weather, also has anyone noticed since the sunspots have risen Mount Etna has erupted, surely IF the sun has an effect on volcanos it must have an effect on out very delicate weather system

[Ian Brown]

Hi for what is worth ,we have our winter forecast for resort : The source of information have a 60 %  successful accuracy rate over the past 2 years for seasonal forecasts in our region.

This winter forecast follows a continuation of the run of warm Autumns:

Generally, it says December will be the coldest month of the winter with northerly incursions, which would suggest more of a blocking over the UK. January around average temperatures with colder incursions from the east ( itself not unusually for this location ). Milder Atlantic winds to push in earlier in than normal and hints at above average temperatures for the end of February and into March ( which would suggest tropical maritime weather type )

So based on this forecast, we can expect some substantial snowfall in December ,which hopefully should last the drier month of January and into the peak ski-ing season in February .

Obviously, this is not a forecast for the United Kingdom but would indicate some colder blocking set up here in December and into January before becoming milder during February ?

Anyway, what will be, will be !

C

 

Thanks C, such a pattern could of course be indicative of mid-latitude HP around the UK with low pressure over Europe. That would fit with the QBO profile, and the concern for cold fans in the UK is that HLB may not be achievable this winter.other than perhaps occasional ridging Northward.