Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[UV-RAY]

But it will be November on Friday and the countdown to winter will be well underway

Almost trolling there Gav, did you take these probability maps as gospel for summer when they were forecasting above average rains for July?

[Ian Brown]

I think it is quite a strong call by the METO given some of the fence sitting we have seen in the past. This won't be making the front page of the Mail or Express tomorrow !

[UV-RAY]

I think it is quite a strong call by the METO given some of the fence sitting we have seen in the past. This won't be making the front page of the Mail or Express tomorrow !

Ian look at this summers probability forecasts, that also didn't make the Express or Mails headline and just as well really as it was way off base.

[bobbydog]

I think it is quite a strong call by the METO given some of the fence sitting we have seen in the past. This won't be making the front page of the Mail or Express tomorrow !

 

but its not really a forecast ian. its an interpretation of their long range probability maps.

[Ian Brown]

but its not really a forecast ian. its an interpretation of their long range probability maps.

Yes but it is as far as they will go at this stage. As some of the US guys are saying, teleconnections do favour a +ve NAO. And although you can't sum up 62 days weather with one chart, we know that that means topplers at best.

[AderynCoch]

At least with a proper zonal setup we should be spared a repeat of the dreadful November 2011 with its relentless southerly winds.

 

It also looks as though we're going to get more of a westerly flow in the near future rather than a southwesterly one, so it shouldn't be quite as mild as it has been.

Edited October 28, 2013 by AderynCoch

[NorthernRab]

Yes but it is as far as they will go at this stage. As some of the US guys are saying, teleconnections do favour a +ve NAO. And although you can't sum up 62 days weather with one chart, we know that that means topplers at best.

 

I wonder why that's the case? Could it be that confidence is fairly low at this stage and their forecast may change considerably? As such, is it not more sensible to limit any conclusions we draw from this and perhaps suggest that coldies don't have anything particularly substantive to worry about at the moment? 

 

Just a thought.

[Don]

Looks like the met office are going for a mild winter,  though as you would expect even in milder winters occasional cold spells can't be ruled out

 

For November-December-January above-average temperatures are considered more likely than below, though this signal is likely strongly influenced by the expected mild November. Overall the probability that the UK-mean temperature for November-December-January will be in the warmest of our five categories is close to 30% and the probability that it will fall into the coldest category is approximately 15% (the 1981-2010 probability for each of these categories is 20%).

 

Tropical stratospheric conditions, meanwhile, are now in a strong westerly Quasi-Biennial Oscillation phase, which has an established link to autumn and winter time conditions over northwestern Europe, favouring positive North Atlantic Oscillation.

 

Latest computer model forecasts indeed favour westerly or southwesterly atmospheric flow over northwestern Europe, including the UK. At this time of year this is typically associated with milder-, wetter- and stormier-than-average conditions

 

In fact the forecast indicates a high probability of a milder November than that of last year. This is likely to be associated with lower-than-average incidence of overnight frost. Forecast curves for November-December-January indicate above-average temperatures more likely than below-average. However, even during milder winters occasional colder outbreaks can still occur more especially in December and January.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2821728

 

A disappointing update although not really surprising especially after their long range model update last week.  However, it does state that the period is likely to be strongly influenced by the expected mild November which could suggest an increase in chances of colder weather in December and January.  However, this isn't mentioned as such.  It sounds like they expect the strong westerly QBO to override any -NAO signal given from the May SST profile.  Although this forecast doesn't cover February, if it came off as predicted, we would probably be looking at a Winter typical to those that dominated much of the 90's and 00's.  That said, their contingency forecast pointed towards a cool Summer, so although that doesn't mean this forecast is likely to be wrong, it shows there is still hope for coldies!

[syed2878]

@summer sun. What a grim reading your post makes. U made an old man verry unhappy. Lol. I hope the met r far from the mark.

[UV-RAY]

Yes but it is as far as they will go at this stage. As some of the US guys are saying, teleconnections do favour a +ve NAO. And although you can't sum up 62 days weather with one chart, we know that that means topplers at best.

Oh no not the US guys again, are these the same elusive US guys from last year you mentioned and are they some secret covert weather enthusiast.

[Mr Frost]

But it will be November on Friday and the countdown to winter will be well underway

 

 

I know you love nothing more in life than mild temperatures but you are surely having a laugh with this post?

 

If there are cold weather lovers fretting about long range charts and information then you need to get a grip, it is only October 28th! 

Folk on here are talking as if it is February 28th, 2014!

 

Stay patient and relax, look at long term forecasts as a bit of a laugh. I do when I have a browse of the CFS 1 month or 9 month charts. (Whether it shows zonal or a big Easterly) 

 

We live in the UK not Scandinavia, Northerly topplers are our bread and butter. If we get a sustained few days or week of cold and snow then fantastic. 

 

What will be will be...NO-ONE can tell us what the Weather is going to be like in a months time. 

I am excited for December 1st to arrive and Winter to begin...bring on some snow for us all in December, January, February or March. (Even for Gavin and Ian) 

[cyclonic happiness]

what proof have you that Mt Etna errupted after the sunpots increased? Sure it has occurred but there is absolutely no link that you have shown. Are you telling us that the increase in suspot activity is directly related to the storm just passed?

Everything is linked to everything else though, one way or another. And seeing as the sun created the Earth and dominates it in every way possible, why not sunspots and volcanoes? :-)

[Ian Brown]

Oh no not the US guys again, are these the same elusive US guys from last year you mentioned and are they some secret covert weather enthusiast.

 

No SI, Im in touch with a couple of highly respected guys who were on the now defunct Eastern US forum.

 

One is particularly bullish about a flat Northern Hemispheric pattern. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Everything is linked to everything else though, one way or another. And seeing as the sun created the Earth and dominates it in every way possible, why not sunspots and volcanoes? :-)

Asking for evidence is neither accepting nor disregarding an idea!

[MPG]

Forget all the Metoffice talk and weather predictions, it will be what it will be....interesting Meto thoughts here:

 

http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2012/05/06/met-office-forecasting-produces-another-epic-failure/

 

http://autonomousmind.wordpress.com/2011/01/28/the-met-office-winter-forecast-lie-is-finally-nailed/

 

As for the even larger teapot....lol

[Ian Brown]

A disappointing update although not really surprising especially after their long range model update last week.  However, it does state that the period is likely to be strongly influenced by the expected mild November which could suggest an increase in chances of colder weather in December and January.  However, this isn't mentioned as such.  It sounds like they expect the strong westerly QBO to override any -NAO signal given from the May SST profile.  Although this forecast doesn't cover February, if it came off as predicted, we would probably be looking at a Winter typical to those that dominated much of the 90's and 00's.  That said, their contingency forecast pointed towards a cool Summer, so although that doesn't mean this forecast is likely to be wrong, it shows there is still hope for coldies!

 

Yes as I said earlier, November, certainly the first two thirds, is 'in the bag' for the Atlantic and that will see double to mid-teen figures and little in the way of frost due to the mobility of the pattern and the W/SW airmass.

 

I was running thru some archives the other day and I hope for the sake of the forum and Carinthians skiing resort that we don't see another 88/89 or 89/90. Absolute zonality.

[Captain Shortwave]

To be honest the GFS is saying zonal for the foreseeable and if anything the ECM is even more zonal by the start of week 2 

Hopefully our fortunes will change in a couple of weeks time

Edited October 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[smithyweather]

No it's not in the bag.

[Weather-history]

This won't be making the front page of the Mail or Express tomorrow !

No because it will be either Diana or the weather just gone on the front page but I can see how Mail and Express could embellish it by saying "very wet and stormy winter coming! Frequent devastating gales and flood warns Met Office"

[Buriedundersnow]

Everything is linked to everything else though, one way or another. And seeing as the sun created the Earth and dominates it in every way possible, why not sunspots and volcanoes? :-)

 

 

yeah it seems some people on here forget without the sun we wouldn't have any weather and be one big ball of ice and people who put down the suns affects on us need to rethink things a little.

 

same as we here all this the suns affects have lag times well all I can say to that is @*&^%$  the sun directly affects our weather every day as we see the heat of the days sun trigger thunderstorms and such and if you believe in the butterfly affect then that sun setting off afternoon storms is bount to have a larger overall affect on our climate

[johnholmes]

No it's not in the bag.

 

I doubt it is 'in the bag' but the first 2 weeks look set to be zonal rather than meridional or can you show something that disproves that?

[UV-RAY]

No SI, Im in touch with a couple of highly respected guys who were on the now defunct Eastern US forum.

 

One is particularly bullish about a flat Northern Hemispheric pattern. 

Thank you Ian, I'm not disputing that they could be wrong as  with a west based QBO that generally is  the sort of pattern we would see, but there are exceptions if I recall, 1947 was a west based QBO as were a few other winters that had some notable cold spells in them.

[BornFromTheVoid]

yeah it seems some people on here forget without the sun we wouldn't have any weather and be one big ball of ice and people who put down the suns affects on us need to rethink things a little.

 

same as we here all this the suns affects have lag times well all I can say to that is @*&^%$  the sun directly affects our weather every day as we see the heat of the days sun trigger thunderstorms and such and if you believe in the butterfly affect then that sun setting off afternoon storms is bount to have a larger overall affect on our climate

 

Actually, without our atmosphere (mainly the greenhouse gasses) the Earth would be a ball of ice anyway!

 

Nobody is disputing that the sun has an integral role in our weather and climate, but claiming that it's slight variations are the cause of every and any little thing, without presenting any evidence, is pointless.

[NorthernRab]

No SI, Im in touch with a couple of highly respected guys who were on the now defunct Eastern US forum.

 

One is particularly bullish about a flat Northern Hemispheric pattern. 

 

Oh please. Either let it be known who they are or stop referring to them.

[Buriedundersnow]

To be honest the GFS is saying zonal for the foreseeable and if anything the ECM is even more zonal by the start of week 2 

Hopefully our fortunes will change in a couple of weeks time

 

yes looks very zonal but as we all know things can change in the models in a hurry and out of the blue and it woudnt take much from that chart to leave us in a very different position and in a much colder airmass