Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Summer Sun]

 

 

Yes absolutely dyer, chose a school far away to increase chances of getting time off due to dumpings and it was the biggest let down of all time.

 

 

Yes didn't 09/10 and 10/11 start off very stormy with flooding in early November?

 

Cumbria got it really bad in November 09

 

In the 24 hours ending at 0900 on 20th, 253.0 mm of rainfall was measured at Seathwaite in Cumbria. 316.4mm was recorded here between 0000 and 2359 on 19th November, the highest UK total for any 24-hour period

 

Almost all areas recorded well above average rainfall, with many having well over twice the normal amount.

 

November 2010 will be remembered more for the heavy snow and bitter temperatures which arrived during the second half of the month which of course started that 5 or 6 week freeze.

 

November 2010 opened up with some very warm weather in parts 19.0°C was recorded at St James's Park (London) on 4th. on the 30th Balmoral had 58cm of snow which is just short of 2ft

[Eugene]

Everyone is going on about mild winters and cold winters, it's most likely to be near average which if it isn't too wet will do me just fine.

[Weather-history]

That gave snow here. Rain turned to snow that Friday evening and we had a covering. Edited September 9, 2013 by Weather-history

[Jax]

Everyone is going on about mild winters and cold winters, it's most likely to be near average which if it isn't too wet will do me just fine.

You mean that "normal" weathery type stuff?

 

 

Yeah, I am OK with that

[UV-RAY]

You mean that "normal" weathery type stuff?

 

 

Yeah, I am OK with that

One man's normal is another man's abnormal, more so on a weather forum.

[cheeky_monkey]

Just a hand full of charts to show what the winter of 88 / 89 was like for those like me who were not around at that time

 

These are just random charts but as you can see the dominant feature that winter was low pressure over Greenland and high pressure over a lot of Europe though the UK and europe did get some more lively weather in the February

 

 

January 89

 

 

February 89

 

ah February 1989 i remember this very very well..but for a completely different reason not suitable for a family audience

[Jax]

One man's normal is another man's abnormal, more so on a weather forum.

Yup, thats the stuff.

[picog]

If it's cold weather you like, the warmth is getting rather too close for comfort this winter according to CFSv2. Feb looks half decent with a warm Greenland, but December looking poor right now.

Edited September 9, 2013 by picog

[Summer Sun]

The latest met office contingency planners forecast favours an above average autumn this year it doesn't cover December yet but some may find this an interesting read http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2783989

[Weather-history]

This winter will mark the 200th anniversary of the famous winter of 1813-14.

[Gaz1985]

This winter will mark the 200th anniversary of the famous winter of 1813-14.

 

My memories of that Winter are a bit rusty 

Edited September 9, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Downburst]

The latest met office contingency planners forecast favours an above average autumn this year it doesn't cover December yet but some may find this an interesting read http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2783989

A very important report this. I've always been fascinated with probability and from my own point of view I start with expecting an average winter, rather than looking for a default extreme constantly, and then look for input that will deviate from the mean. It think as the met report suggests there is no clear expectation of a input to change the mean yet. Obviously there will be different weather types in reality, not every day being average, but depending on how long your view is in discussing winter at the moment we can expect average at this point unless I'm missing something very obvious. Not very insightful I know. Still there is some hope for a colder end to November if northern Europe is favoured for High pressure, so perhaps a nice frosty end to Autumn, on occasion which most people enjoy.

[Tim Bland]

The latest met office contingency planners forecast favours an above average autumn this year it doesn't cover December yet but some may find this an interesting read http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75389-met-office-contingency-planners-forecasts/?p=2783989

Also talks about blocking being prevelant and possibility of colder spells towards the end of the period (Nov) whichever way you want to interpret it though they are still firmly on the fence.

[Gaz1985]

Also talks about blocking being prevelant and possibility of colder spells towards the end of the period (Nov) whichever way you want to interpret it though they are still firmly on the fence.

 

Reminds me of that time last February when a lot of the charts were going for the mother of all easterlys but the Met Office sat on the fence right until it was supposed to happen. Most people in here thought we was going to get a January 1987 style freeze but it didn't happen. 

[cheeky_monkey]

As of 31st August...Environment Canada are going for an above normal temperature wise winter across much of Canada.

[Summer Sun]

Here is the 4 monthly El Nino forecast updated in August

 

 

This is the 2 year prediction for ENSO

 

 

And El Nino Modoki

 

 

Blue line - observations
Red line - ensemble mean
Other - individual ensemble members

 

[Gavin Hannah]

Sunspot count is almost at 0, or is 0 if you use laymans count.  If the solar max continues to fizzle out, it could have an effect on this years winter weather?  

[Tim Bland]

I wonder if the lack of hurricanes could help with a cold winter? A more blocked Atlantic would certainly help?

[Gaz1985]

Sunspot count is almost at 0, or is 0 if you use laymans count.  If the solar max continues to fizzle out, it could have an effect on this years winter weather?  

 

Probably not it might flare up again there's time - hopefully a Bartlett strong pressure will give us a green Winter rather than a white one. 

[Summer Sun]

I wonder if the lack of hurricanes could help with a cold winter? A more blocked Atlantic would certainly help?

 

All depends if the Azores high stays close enough cold weather would be harder to get with a Bartlett high possibly setting up. At the moment the Atlantic is that dead there is nothing to shift the Azores if this persists into winter the MOD thread will see a lot of toys getting thrown out the pram come winter

Edited September 9, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Relativistic]

Reminds me of that time last February when a lot of the charts were going for the mother of all easterlys but the Met Office sat on the fence right until it was supposed to happen. Most people in here thought we was going to get a January 1987 style freeze but it didn't happen.

Wasn't that last December? Damn, can't believe we missed out on it.

[Isolated Frost]

Probably not it might flare up again there's time - hopefully a Bartlett strong pressure will give us a green Winter rather than a white one. 

Ultra scrooge mode there. Do you really hate snow that much?! Surely you at least like the look of it?! I know it's hard to travel in it, but surely life has more than work!

[hillbilly]

Did I not read a few years back a study by the university of California  about the influences of the atlantic conveyer including river flows off the American continents,northern and southern ice volumes and the loss of ocean from atlantic to the pacific due to the panama canal all have effect,a perfect combination of these can drastically affect winter or summer weather patterns!

[Don]

All depends if the Azores high stays close enough cold weather would be harder to get with a Bartlett high possibly setting up. At the moment the Atlantic is that dead there is nothing to shift the Azores if this persists into winter the MOD thread will see a lot of toys getting thrown out the pram come winter

 

You can only hope!

 

As for my own thoughts for this Winter, my hunch (and it is just a hunch) is for a milder one, but who knows?

 

EDIT:  Just to clarify I am NOT hoping for a mild winter!

Edited September 9, 2013 by Don

[Yarmy]

As of 31st August...Environment Canada are going for an above normal temperature wise winter across much of Canada.

Most people on here would kill for an above average Canadian winter in the UK!