Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[Radiating Dendrite]

We dammed had a very near hurricane in 1987, although I take your point about Madden though, as he forecasts one every Autumn.

As had been said many times before, hurricanes are warm core and form over warm oceans. Storms that affect the UK are cold core and get their strength primarily from steep temperature and pressue gradients.

[March Blizzard]

It might sound nonsensical but, until we reach next spring we won't know how accurate it turns out to be.

[hillbilly]

As had been said many times before, hurricanes are warm core and form over warm oceans. Storms that affect the UK are cold core and get their strength primarily from steep temperature and pressue gradien

What exactly is a hurricane and has ther ever been one documented in the uk in history??

[pandit-scholar]

Dea

First of all he's no older than a teenager I thought everyone knew Hurricanes don't affect the UK shows you how much he knows

Having a look at what's public on his Facebook profile he appears to be 18 years old and from Bridgend. The posts which are public are entirely about his predicted 'hurricane'. I wonder if he is a member of this forum!???Nice to have some unity now on this thread between the cold and mild winter lover!!

[Radiating Dendrite]

What exactly is a hurricane and has ther ever been one documented in the uk in history??

I assume there is a breakdown of how a hurricane forms etc in the learning section or just use wiki. This is not the thread to explain this really. Storms with hurricane strength winds have occured over the UK (1987) but they are formed in a completely different manner to hurricanes.

[chionomaniac]

I think that from the early research that I have done is that there is very much a mixed bag of long range signals for this winter. Yes, a westerly QBO is never a great sign for those wanting a weaker stratospheric polar vortex, but there are other signs (such as neutral ENSO and NH SST current state aligned with weaker solar activity) which counteract that signal. And by definition one cannot get a hurricane outside the tropics, so anyone touting that is in cloud cuckoo land.

[Weather-history]

I like it. The summer of 62 was warm, like this year. Then the following winter was cold, thus this winter will be cold. The most complex of ideas explained in a couple of sentences, genius!

Summer 1962 was not warm, there has been no cooler summer for the CET than 1962 in the last 40 years.This summer was 1.9C warmer than in 1962 for the CET. Edited September 8, 2013 by Weather-history

[Gavin Hannah]

Perhaps the lad would have been better off using the following ...  "Hurricane strength storm" rather than "Hurricane".....And lets be honest, We usually get at least one belter of an autumnal/winter storm each year.

[Yarmy]

Ah, you know winter is drawing closer when we get the first 'Nut in a shed predicts Snowmaggedon' forecast posted.

[snowking]

There are so very many things which have already been picked out that would rubbish this madden-esque forecast, and present it rightly as merely a publicity type exercise for whatever reason.

 

But if we want to talk purely in facts, I would like to know where this warmest and driest summer in 247 years figure has come from. First of all we only have reconstructions that go back that far, and crucially....its just not true.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/early-summer-stats

 

I am growing increasingly tired and frustrated at morons using extreme weather forecasts for nothing other than publicity, taking a medium I (and many of us on here) have a huge passion for and destroying its credibility.

 

Rant over!

SK

 

EDIT: Just to confirm that this guy is indeed a genuine crackpot, other fascinating examples of his work on youtube includes:

 

 

"aliens coming to earth 2014 to take people fact"

Wonderful. Just wonderful.

Edited September 8, 2013 by snowking

[Methuselah]

I haven't watched the video yet as I cannot get it to work on my computer.

Think yourself lucky!

[feb1991blizzard]

I assume there is a breakdown of how a hurricane forms etc in the learning section or just use wiki. This is not the thread to explain this really.Storms with hurricane strength winds have occured over the UK (1987) but they are formed in a completely different manner to hurricanes.

 

Don't use wiki, it said they form over the North Atlantic, so surely that's cobblers based on what you said in your post above, I always thought they could theoretically hit us, or the tail end anyway as they form in the tropics but weaken but end up over this side of the pond but stand corrected.

[Gaz1985]

 

Early December looking nice and mild 

[feb1991blizzard]

Don't use wiki, it said they form over the North Atlantic, so surely that's cobblers based on what you said in your post above, I always thought they could theoretically hit us, or the tail end anyway as they form in the tropics but weaken but end up over this side of the pond but stand corrected.

 

Sorry my world geography is pants - ignore the first sentence, just checked.

[Summer Sun]

So that 2 hot summers which have had mild winters straight after now 03, 06 any one else know of warm summer / mild winter combinations?

 

And as we know this summer was the hottest since 06

Edited September 8, 2013 by Summer Sun

[feb1991blizzard]

 

Early December looking nice and mild 

 

 

I have to pull you up on that one, you should rephrase that and say 'if you believe a non - modified really low resolution model at T2154 based on one single run then early December is looking mild'!!!!

Edited September 8, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Methuselah]

1974 was the hottest summer in the UK to date and and what followed was a mild winter - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/34312-winter-1974-75/

 

So that 3 hot summers which have had mild winters straight after now 74, 03, 06 any one else know of warm summer / mild winter combinations?

 

And as we know this summer was the hottest since 06..............

I don't recall 1974 being remotely 'hot' SS...1975 was, though.

[Gaz1985]

1974 was the hottest summer in the UK to date and and what followed was a mild winter - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/34312-winter-1974-75/

 

So that 3 hot summers which have had mild winters straight after now 74, 03, 06 any one else know of warm summer / mild winter combinations?

 

And as we know this summer was the hottest since 06..............

 

Thought that was 76' Gavin with the scorching Summer? 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

1976 was a super hot summer and a cold winter followed in 76/77Summer of 1990 was very warm and a cold winter followed in 90/91

Summer of 1995 very warm, then cold winter 95/96

 

Equally I can name warm summers with mild winters to follow such as:

 

Summer of 1911 was hot and then a mild winter followed.

A hot summer of 1947 and a mild winter to follow

A hot summer of 1975 and mild winter of 75/76

 

If you believe we are in a cyclical pattern of cold winters, the last time we got a cluster of cold winters in a short period was in the 1960s.

 

The following winters were cold or severe during that period:

1962/63, 63/64, 64/65, 67/68, 68/69, 69/70.  Then 6 average, mild or very mild winters followed that.

 

The largest congregation of cold winters of the last 300 years came in the 1760s and 1770s, and again in the 1830s/1840s, but even then there was not more than 7 years between 2 winters classed as mild.

 

When was the last winter classed as mild recently?  2007/2008 I am guessing?  So if we have another winter that is average or colder, that will make it 6 winters in a row.

 

Bear in mind that an average CET winter back in the 1800s was quite a bit colder than an average CET winter today!

Edited September 8, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Yarmy]

1974 was the hottest summer in the UK to date and and what followed was a mild winter - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/34312-winter-1974-75/

 

So that 3 hot summers which have had mild winters straight after now 74, 03, 06 any one else know of warm summer / mild winter combinations?

 

And as we know this summer was the hottest since 06..............

Just need to look at the CET record and compare positive anomalies for JJA with the following winter. I doubt there's any statistical significance to be honest. After all, we've just had an exceptionally cold spring followed by a hot summer. How often does that happen?

[chionomaniac]

Why would anyone base a winters forecast on the preceding summers temperatures experienced in one relatively small location?

[stewfox]

There are so very many things which have already been picked out that would rubbish this madden-esque forecast, and present it rightly as merely a publicity type exercise for whatever reason.

 

But if we want to talk purely in facts, I would like to know where this warmest and driest summer in 247 years figure has come from. First of all we only have reconstructions that go back that far, and crucially....its just not true.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/early-summer-stats

 

I am growing increasingly tired and frustrated at morons using extreme weather forecasts for nothing other than publicity, taking a medium I (and many of us on here) have a huge passion for and destroying its credibility.

 

Rant over!

SK

 

EDIT: Just to confirm that this guy is indeed a genuine crackpot, other fascinating examples of his work on youtube includes:

 

 

"aliens coming to earth 2014 to take people fact"

Wonderful. Just wonderful.

 

Its a forecast it might be wrong it might be right. The 247 years I assume was taken from every national paper reporting on this July

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/415664/Britain-s-driest-July-for-247-years-Households-urged-be-wise-with-water

 

I'm not sure I would call someone a moron or crack pot because of a forecast regardless of how unlikely I see it turning out.

 

The fact is if we assume he is around 18 has spent some time filming himself and posting it on you tube , shows keenest and should be welcome.

[snowking]

1974 was the hottest summer in the UK to date and and what followed was a mild winter - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/34312-winter-1974-75/

 

So that 3 hot summers which have had mild winters straight after now 74, 03, 06 any one else know of warm summer / mild winter combinations?

 

And as we know this summer was the hottest since 06..............

Equally though SS, the summers of (picking two at random) 1984 and 1990 were well above the summer CET average too....and below average CET winters followed those too

 

SK

[stewfox]

Why would anyone base a winters forecast on the preceding summers temperatures experienced in one relatively small location?

 

 

Seem to work for a fore fathers for thousands of years

[Summer Sun]

Equally though SS, the summers of (picking two at random) 1984 and 1990 were well above the summer CET average too....and below average CET winters followed those too

 

SK

 

Thanks SK

 

As ever only time will tell