Winter 2013/2014 Forecasts/Hopes/Discussion Thread

[feb1991blizzard]

It would be reasonable if all the background signals fitted in with previous times when an above average summer and below / above average following winter occurred to factor this into a forecast but to just pluck out years is pretty useless, Autumn patterns much more important anyway and we wont have a handle on those for a while yet.

 

EDIT  :  Nowt wrong with making predictions for a bit of fun - eg - white xmas, as long as one admits its for fun and doesn't claim science supports it.

Edited September 8, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Thundery wintry showers]

Over the last century, a disproportionate number of hot summers have been preceded by generally "westerly" winters- 1911, 1921, 1975, 1976, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1994 and 1995- though the winters of 1982/83, 1983/84 and 1993/94 had a fair number of widespread snow events despite the dominance of westerly winds.  It is not a hard and fast rule though- the hot summers of 1947 and 1955 both followed on from exceptionally snowy winters.  1959 was an interesting case as the January of that year was cold with frequent northerly winds and some snowfalls, but the rest of the 1958/59 season was almost completely snowless.

 

There seems to be less of a relationship between hot summers and the following winters.  1989 and 2006 were good examples of hot summers followed by very mild winters, but the hot summers of 1976 and 1995 were both followed by cold winters, and 1976 marked a step-change from the generally mild winters of 1971-76 to the generally snowy ones of 1977-87.  The aforementioned hot summer of 1955, which followed the "Operation Snowdrop" winter of 1954/55, was followed by an easterly-dominated, sub-zero CET February which had frequent snow in the east and south of the country.

Edited September 8, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[snowking]

Its a forecast it might be wrong it might be right. The 247 years I assume was taken from every national paper reporting on this July

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/415664/Britain-s-driest-July-for-247-years-Households-urged-be-wise-with-water

 

I'm not sure I would call someone a moron or crack pot because of a forecast regardless of how unlikely I see it turning out.

 

The fact is if we assume he is around 18 has spent some time filming himself and posting it on you tube , shows keenest and should be welcome.

 

And if it's written in the express it must be true.

 

I would be able to take this sort of 'forecast' seriously if any due care or attention had been taken to actually provide methodology, rather than repeatedly mentioning 'cycles' and supposedly unusually above average Atlantic SST's....something which, once again, simply isn't true:

 

 

Yes the Atlantic is slightly above average overall, but not unusually so and not to the sort of extent where it would actively encourage the sort of tropical storm activity he refers to.

 

There's a difference between keen interest (the likes of which we see from many on here) and simply creating a needlessly over-the-top publicity-seeking prediction with little or no explanation of how the prediction has been derived and with little evidence to back it up other than referring to a hollywood blockbuster and how we have already supposedly been seeing the events that took place within it coming to fruition this year.

 

To to those intents and purposes I strongly disagree with your last sentence. We should absolutely be encouraging young people interested in the field of meteorology to come to places like this, learn about meteorology and use scientifically sound principles, techniques and evidence-based fact gathering to help derive and justify forecasts, just as the majority on here manage to achieve.

 

I have absolutely no time for somebody actively seeking to publicise themselves through the medium of weather forecasting in the manor in which he has displayed here. We have all been here and seen this too many times with the likes of James Madden.

 

SK

[feb1991blizzard]

Over the last century, a disproportionate number of hot summers have been preceded by generally "westerly" winters- 1911, 1921, 1975, 1976, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1994 and 1995- though the winters of 1982/83, 1983/84 and 1993/94 had a fair number of widespread snow events despite the dominance of westerly winds.  It is not a hard and fast rule though- the hot summers of 1947 and 1955 both followed on from exceptionally snowy winters.  1959 was an interesting case as the January of that year was cold with frequent northerly winds and some snowfalls, but the rest of the 1958/59 season was almost completely snowless.

 

There seems to be less of a relationship between hot summers and the following winters.  1989 and 2006 were good examples of hot summers followed by very mild winters, but the hot summers of 1976 and 1995 were both followed by cold winters, and 1976 marked a step-change from the generally mild winters of 1971-76 to the generally snowy ones of 1977-87.  The aforementioned hot summer of 1955, which followed the "Operation Snowdrop" winter of 1954/55, was followed by an easterly-dominated, sub-zero CET February which had frequent snow in the east and south of the country.

 

 

 

 

 

In your opinion, do you think there is anything in it or just coincidence?

[hillbilly]

Over the last century, a disproportionate number of hot summers have been preceded by generally "westerly" winters- 1911, 1921, 1975, 1976, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1990, 1994 and 1995- though the winters of 1982/83, 1983/84 and 1993/94 had a fair number of widespread snow events despite the dominance of westerly winds.  It is not a hard and fast rule though- the hot summers of 1947 and 1955 both followed on from exceptionally snowy winters.  1959 was an interesting case as the January of that year was cold with frequent northerly winds and some snowfalls, but the rest of the 1958/59 season was almost completely snowless.

 

There seems to be less of a relationship between hot summers and the following winters.  1989 and 2006 were good examples of hot summers followed by very mild winters, but the hot summers of 1976 and 1995 were both followed by cold winters, and 1976 marked a step-change from the generally mild winters of 1971-76 to the generally snowy ones of 1977-87.  The aforementioned hot summer of 1955, which followed the "Operation Snowdrop" winter of 1954/55, was followed by an easterly-dominated, sub-zero CET February which had frequent snow in the east and south of the country.

Are there not a lot of summers/winters missing between 1921 and 1975?

[stewfox]

In your opinion, do you think there is anything in it or just coincidence?

 

People have number crunched the CET series and found no correlation between seasons..e.g a mild Autumn means more likely to have a cold winter etc

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html

 

 

July CET with 18.3c

 

18.3 1701  (winter DJF 1701/2 was 5.1c average)

18.3 1733 (winter DJF 1733/34 was 6.1c average)

18.3 1859  (winter DJF 1859/60 was  2.3c average)

18.3 1868  (winter DJF 1868/69 was  6.8c average)

18.3 2013 ???

[feb1991blizzard]

People have number crunched the CET series and found no correlation between seasons..e.g a mild Autumn means more likely to have a cold winter etc

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html

 

 

July CET with 18.3c

 

18.3 1701  (winter DJF 1701/2 was 5.1c average)

18.3 1733 (winter DJF 1733/34 was 6.1c average)

18.3 1859  (winter DJF 1859/60 was  2.3c average)

18.3 1868  (winter DJF 1868/69 was  6.8c average)

18.3 2013 ???

 

I will bank the third one down please!

[stewfox]

I will bank the third one down please!

 

I would take 1783/4 . Look how similar 1783 is to 2013 so far ie Jan/Feb/March similar CET values, a very warm July etc

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

Look how the following winter Jan/Feb 1784 turned out

 

"""January to April 1784 ... notably cold, and persistently so by CET series. In particular, the winter (1783 December - 1784 February) CET=1.2degC, some 2.5C below the all-series average. The Thames was completely frozen in February and traffic crossed on the ice. (LW) ""

 

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1750_1799.htm

 

 

Of course as mentioned I believe there is no 'correlation' but I might be wrong

Edited September 8, 2013 by stewfox

[feb1991blizzard]

I would take 1783/4 . Look how similar 1783 is to 2013 so far ie Jan/Feb/March similar CET values, a very warm July etc

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

 

Look how the following winter Jan/Feb 1784 turned out

 

"""January to April 1784 ... notably cold, and persistently so by CET series. In particular, the winter (1783 December - 1784 February) CET=1.2degC, some 2.5C below the all-series average. The Thames was completely frozen in February and traffic crossed on the ice. (LW) ""

 

http://booty.org.uk/booty.weather/climate/1750_1799.htm

 

 

Of course as mentioned I believe there is no 'correlation'

 

A Stonker!!!, I don't believe in temperature correlation alone, however, I do believe in pattern matching between Autumn and winter as per GP's last winter forecast, so my opinion is in predicting what happens from season to season that pre 1950 years are not of great use as there is less teleconnective data available, only my opinion of course, what I would say though is from a cold point of view, I would have preferred a Greenland high dominated summer as the last few have been, simply to carry on the pattern that as brought us mainly below average winters with above average snowfall lately, a summer pattern change of course could mean jack and we could still get a good winter and we could just as easily use the exception to the last few years which brought us a GH dominated summer followed by a massive PV dominated Autumn / winter (11/12), on balance though I would prefer a long pattern to continue if successful in bringing cold winters.

[DAVID SNOW]

People have number crunched the CET series and found no correlation between seasons..e.g a mild Autumn means more likely to have a cold winter etc

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/index.html

 

 

July CET with 18.3c

 

18.3 1701  (winter DJF 1701/2 was 5.1c average)

18.3 1733 (winter DJF 1733/34 was 6.1c average)

18.3 1859  (winter DJF 1859/60 was  2.3c average)

18.3 1868  (winter DJF 1868/69 was  6.8c average)

18.3 2013

Maybe the few hundred years of CET values  that we have is simply not long enough to find any correlations? Just think if we had 10,000 years of accurate temperature readings, maybe that would reveal some patterns?

[Mark Neal.]

Any one who forecasts a hurricane over Britain has no meteorological knowledge! A hurricane is a tropical system that cannot form over the north Atlantic.

What a joker....... makes Madden look like Einstein!

 

Which makes him wrong to begin with!

let alone the overhyped nonsense the video goes on to produce, there is being realistic and there is being madden-esque, preidciting the next ice age and skating on the thames 

[feb1991blizzard]

Which makes him wrong to begin with!

let alone the overhyped nonsense the video goes on to produce, there is being realistic and there is being madden-esque, preidciting the next ice age and skating on the thames 

 

 

Wiki here says they occur in the North Atlantic, I think I would believe the majority of people on here however over wiki, one of the forecast team would have had their penneth worth if it were correct?

[Mark Neal.]

Wiki here says they occur in the North Atlantic, I think I would believe the majority of people on here however over wiki, one of the forecast team would have had their penneth worth if it were correct?

Yes but when we see a deep depression (low pressure) over our shores in Autumn time for example, it won't be known as a hurricane. However we sometimes get the words like, hurricane force winds? but not officially a hurricane? I'm only going on what i have heard from senior posters on here and like you said would rather take there word for it than wiki! 

 

Usually described as a Ex tropical storm when they get here or just remnants causing a low pressure to move through. 

Edited September 8, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Cheshire Freeze]

One for us coldies

 

[feb1991blizzard]

One for us coldies

 

 

He said it would be bad further east but I was in Salford then and the front bagged me 6 inches, my biggest fall for nearly 13 years at the time, if I would have lived here however, it would have given me 6 foot drifts, technically he was right because 11 miles made all the difference, I think he meant worse nearer the east coast thought, I wasn't expecting 6 inches that night, baring in mind I was a stones throw away from Manchester City Centre.

Beat that though.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

This seems to suggest the one state we don't want to find ourselves in this winter is a weak la nina-neutral ENSO state coupled with the +QBO. Most ensemble members seem to take us to neutral-weak el nino which MAY be slightly better.

 

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2093G

 

 

''We find that nearly all extremely strong stratospheric polar vortices took place during cold to neutral ENSO and westerly QBO phases''

[feb1991blizzard]

This seems to suggest the one state we don't want to find ourselves in this winter is a weak la nina-neutral ENSO state coupled with the +QBO. Most ensemble members seem to take us to neutral-weak el nino which MAY be slightly better.

 

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2093G

 

 

''We find that nearly all extremely strong stratospheric polar vortices took place during cold to neutral ENSO and westerly QBO phases''

 

 

Please no 1989.

[Gaz1985]

I nearly fainted in fright in January 2010 at the sight almost a foot of snow, it was a rotten experience to wake up to, thoroughly unpleasant. Before I was wheelchair bound I used all the salt and sand at my disposal and gritted my whole street that day. Needless to say not one part of the street was salt free.

[feb1991blizzard]

I nearly fainted in fright in January 2010 at the sight almost a foot of snow, it was a rotten experience to wake up to, thoroughly unpleasant. Before I was wheelchair bound I used all the salt and sand at my disposal and gritted my whole street that day. Needless to say not one part of the street was salt free.

 

Must have been a good buzz for a few moments though, being blinded with white, before you realised you were screwed for getting anywhere.

[Gaz1985]

Must have been a good buzz for a few moments though, being blinded with white, before you realised you were screwed for getting anywhere.

 

It was the stuff of terrors for me! I was still waking up in April but with nightmares then I'd jump out of bed and peep out the window to see if there was any snow...... well no things didn't quite escalate that far 

[Gavin Hannah]

I would have preferred a Greenland high dominated summer as the last few have been, simply to carry on the pattern that as brought us mainly below average winters with above average snowfall lately, a summer pattern change of course could mean jack and we could still get a good winter....

 

 

I have always had the feeling that the earlier we see a HP block over Greenland/Scandi then, the later into Winter it is before we see a cold & snow event of the past few winters. 

To me, it seems that just as we approach winter, the block gets disrupted and it takes a month or two to reform.  (going on the last two winters)

 

Far better to have a mobile pattern to start Autumn with and a better chance of a prolonged HP block to start winter off with (2010), rather than having the HP block throughout autumn and for it to get blown out by westerlies just in time for winter starting.

[Summer Sun]

Please no 1989.

 

I understand the winter of 1988 / 89 was the warmest on record in the UK when the mean temperature was 5.82C (42.5F).

[summer blizzard]

This seems to suggest the one state we don't want to find ourselves in this winter is a weak la nina-neutral ENSO state coupled with the +QBO. Most ensemble members seem to take us to neutral-weak el nino which MAY be slightly better.

 

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2013EGUGA..15.2093G

 

 

''We find that nearly all extremely strong stratospheric polar vortices took place during cold to neutral ENSO and westerly QBO phases''

The winters of 09 and 11 both saw weakish La Nina's and westerly QBO's.

[feb1991blizzard]

 

I understand the winter of 1988 / 89 was the warmest on record in the UK when the mean temperature was 5.82C (42.5F).

 

Yes absolutely dyer, chose a school far away to increase chances of getting time off due to dumpings and it was the biggest let down of all time.

I have always had the feeling that the earlier we see a HP block over Greenland/Scandi then, the later into Winter it is before we see a cold & snow event of the past few winters. 

To me, it seems that just as we approach winter, the block gets disrupted and it takes a month or two to reform.  (going on the last two winters)

 

Far better to have a mobile pattern to start Autumn with and a better chance of a prolonged HP block to start winter off with (2010), rather than having the HP block throughout autumn and for it to get blown out by westerlies just in time for winter starting.

 

 

 

 

Yes didn't 09/10 and 10/11 start off very stormy with flooding in early November?

Edited September 9, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[Summer Sun]

Just a hand full of charts to show what the winter of 88 / 89 was like for those like me who were not around at that time

 

These are just random charts but as you can see the dominant feature that winter was low pressure over Greenland and high pressure over a lot of Europe though the UK and europe did get some more lively weather in the February

 

 

January 89

 

 

February 89

 

Edited September 9, 2013 by Summer Sun