Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[Milhouse]

It looks at the moment from the UKMO and GFS that any cool northerly to end the month has been removed. Instead the picture for the next 7 days looks to be a fairly benign one with warmth building through the first part of the week, then tending to ease off later on but still remaining warm. Winds staying light too so it looks a pleasant end to September. More unsettled conditions may push into western areas later on in the week and into next weekend.

[Summer Sun]

A cooler end to GFS for a time

 

 

We end with the Azores showing its hand once more with pressure over Greenland becoming lower

 

 

 

NAO still hinting it will head back to positive territory during early October so another settled spell developing in around 2 weekends time can't be ruled out

 

[Captain Shortwave]

More of the models are starting to create another block over the Scandinavia region in about a weeks time. ECM/GFS and GEM are all going for something like this though the type of block varies they are all in the same ball park.

 

ECM this morning

 

This would potentially put the buffers on an Atlantic train forming.

[Methuselah]

It looks at the moment from the UKMO and GFS that any cool northerly to end the month has been removed. Instead the picture for the next 7 days looks to be a fairly benign one with warmth building through the first part of the week, then tending to ease off later on but still remaining warm. Winds staying light too so it looks a pleasant end to September. More unsettled conditions may push into western areas later on in the week and into next weekend.

Thank goodness for that!

[MR EXTREMES]

Gibby the voice of reason.

[Frosty.]

cardiff 0-1 tottenham :- )

 

The models are showing a largely fine and warm week with sunny spells and a moist sw'ly flow gradually backing to a drier s'ly to se'ly so staying on the warm side of average and significantly warmer than that tomorrow and tuesday but a fair bit cooler further north across the northern half of scotland with most of the rain up there as fronts occasionally pep up, although the week ahead starts anticyclonic, the high pressure will leak away as time goes on and a trough will approach the uk from the southwest/south and next weekend looks like it could turn more generally unsettled but I think it's still a bit uncertain at the end of the week.

[Scorcher]

Well the models have certainly backed away from any real cooldown today. If the GFS 12Z run comes off we could be looking at a very warm final week of the month.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Scorcher

[Frosty.]

Well the models have certainly backed away from any real cooldown today. If the GFS 12Z run comes off we could be looking at a very warm final week of the month.

Yeah it's a cracker, the models first picked this trend for a fine and warm last full week of september around a month ago but with lots of chopping and changing then taking place but credit to the models, they wobble but they always bounce back in the end.

[Summer Sun]

After leaving on Thursday ECM pushes the +10 uppers back into southern England on Friday

 

 

t144 sees the +10 uppers moving northwards once more

 

 

Its looking very likely now September will come in at average or slightly above CET wise

Edited September 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013092212/ECH1-144.GIF?22-0

ECM showing consistency tonight with Europe cooling down - covered by sub 0c 850 air ( unusual these days ) &that cooler air & squeeze of the jet looks to land on our doorstep a little further down the line, however we could cling onto the settled weather for a few days yet-

 

A very nice chart to see heading into winter-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013092212/ECH1-72.GIF?22-0

 

S

[Summer Sun]

T168 shows the UK staying in the milder Atlantic air

 

Edited September 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

Yeah it's a cracker, the models first picked this trend for a fine and warm last full week of september around a month ago but with lots of chopping and changing then taking place but credit to the models, they wobble but they always bounce back in the end.

 

I must admit frosty- on the face of it that hasn't been exactly true- 

 

The models ( more particular the GFS) had this weekend dry & fine 10 days ago with the ECM unsettled- then they converged together-

However its been less than impressive here 19c & slate grey skies with rain this morning-

Hardly the fine warm weather mentioned in your post-

 

Still maybe 3/4 days left to save that before the weather starts attacking from all angles..

 

S

T168 shows the UK staying in the milder Atlantic air

 

 

Not warm really at the surface with that shallow low over the south of the UK-

[Summer Sun]

September ends unsettled and warm

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I must admit frosty- on the face of it that hasn't been exactly true- 

 

The models ( more particular the GFS) had this weekend dry & fine 10 days ago with the ECM unsettled- then they converged together-

However its been less than impressive here 19c & slate grey skies with rain this morning-

Hardly the fine warm weather mentioned in your post-

 

Still maybe 3/4 days left to save that before the weather starts attacking from all angles..

 

S

Not warm really at the surface with that shallow low over the south of the UK-

I think that's a tad harsh, north of London has been pretty sunny with temperatures reaching close to the 25C mark, even the south west saw sunshine today so the South east was the unlucky exception rather than the rule.

That trough should be pretty warm, that's moving north east from the Bay of Biscay wrapped in 12-14C Uppers coming across parts of France which could see temperatures as high as 30C this week. Could provide some late season fireworks.

ECM and GEM asking real questions of how successful the Atlantic push could be. 

Edited September 22, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Scorcher]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013092212/ECH1-144.GIF?22-0

ECM showing consistency tonight with Europe cooling down - covered by sub 0c 850 air ( unusual these days ) &that cooler air & squeeze of the jet looks to land on our doorstep a little further down the line, however we could cling onto the settled weather for a few days yet-

 

A very nice chart to see heading into winter-

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013092212/ECH1-72.GIF?22-0

 

S

 

The ECM is also showing warm air remaining over western Europe- in fact the 10C isotherm never leaves the south of the UK into FI. I know you queried Gavin's point about the mild air remaining over the UK at T168 but it's very unlikely that the details will be exactly as shown as we get nearer the time. What does look likely though is that the UK will keep the above average 850 hPa temps right into the weekend.

 

And yes, just because the London area hasn't been enjoying sunshine and warm temperatures doesn't mean that the rest of us haven't- it's been fantastic here this afternoon with mostly clear sky and temperatures of 21C.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Scorcher

[Summer Sun]

I must admit frosty- on the face of it that hasn't been exactly true- 

 

The models ( more particular the GFS) had this weekend dry & fine 10 days ago with the ECM unsettled- then they converged together-

However its been less than impressive here 19c & slate grey skies with rain this morning-

Hardly the fine warm weather mentioned in your post-

 

Still maybe 3/4 days left to save that before the weather starts attacking from all angles..

 

S

Not warm really at the surface with that shallow low over the south of the UK-

 

Based on London ECM for next weekend has

 

21c on Friday

 

20c on Saturday

 

17c on Sunday

 

Pretty warm still for the time of year

 

@Scorcher

 

Yep same here in Darlo glorious sunshine and warm temperatures it makes a change for the south to be stuck under cloud

Edited September 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

I think that's a tad harsh, north of London has been pretty sunny with temperatures reaching close to the 25C mark, even the south west saw sunshine today so the South east was the unlucky exception rather than the rule.

That trough should be pretty warm, that's moving north east from the Bay of Biscay wrapped in 12-14C Uppers coming across part of France which could see temperatures as high as 30C this week. Could provide some late season fireworks.

ECM and GEM asking real questions of how successful the Atlantic push could be.

 

Well to be fair all ive seen here for the last 5-7 days is how this weekend was going to be great- to be fair its been mediocre at best here, but looking around better further north-

 

Either way on this particular battle the models haven't done very well....

 

I just keep seeing the polar profiles & am happy to see to the slow jet- although I haven't bothered to look at the zonal wind anomalies yet- its to early.

 

S

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends unsettled withwarm uppers remaining in place

 

Edited September 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[AWD]

Just to clear something up, many parts of the South West had slate grey skies and little, if any sunshine today.

Just pop over to the South West regional thread if you don't believe me, plenty of reports in there, of a similiar, sunless nature.

Edited September 22, 2013 by SeasonalWeatherWatcher

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows a warm week ahead for england and wales, the next few days look very warm for the time of year with some favoured spots reaching 24-25 celsius and generally around 22-23c, most areas look dry with clouds becoming more broken with sunny spells and the areas which have the longest spells of sunshine will be warmest, a bit cooler for scotland & n.ireland but pleasant enough and the most of any rain during the week ahead looks like being across the northern half of scotland. After an anticyclonic start, pressure will slowly fall through the week and fall more quickly by friday as a trough pushes northeastwards into the uk from the southwest with an increasing risk of showers, some heavy and thundery but still with sunny spells. Next weekend shows a shallow trough over the uk with a mix of sunshine and heavy showers but at least the winds look light, mainly cyclonic variable but gusty when the heavy showers come along, temperatures slowly sliding back to average but still feeling pleasant enough in the sunshine. The 12z mean shows an unsettled outlook with average temps, cooler for the north and west with the best of the dry and sunny weather for southeastern areas where it would feel warmer at times,

[ANYWEATHER]

My gosh, that's some unusual cold pushing into Scandi/N.Europe at day 10 on ecm. Of course that's a long way off, but I don't ever remember seeing this cold set-up so early in the season...

[Captain Shortwave]

Just to clear something up, many parts of the South West had slate grey skies and little, if any sunshine today.Just pop over to the South West regional thread if you don't believe me, plenty of reports in there, of a similiar, sunless nature.

Strange, the satellite shows all of Cornwall and parts of Devon in the clear since mid afternoon.

BTW again an impressive high to our north east. Keeping us warm and when there are no fronts around pretty sunny, whilst plunging Russia and Eastern Europe into an early winter blast.

Edited September 22, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

I must admit frosty- on the face of it that hasn't been exactly true- 

 

 

It's just my opinion steve, from memory the models did spot this pattern weeks ago but there has been the usual wobbles, will it won't it and so on but the southeast had a mini heatwave early this month and there has been a lot of good weather and not much cool and unsettled weather yet.

[Mark Neal.]

ECM run in full. Looks like a settled and warm week for southern england. Cooler uppers in north as week goes on. Next weekend sees low pressure to the NW become closer. Cooler/Unsettled start to October?

 

 

Edited September 22, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[jay1lk]

Strange, the satellite shows all of Cornwall and parts of Devon in the clear since mid afternoon.BTW again an impressive high to our north east. Keeping us warm and when there are no fronts around pretty sunny, whilst plunging Russia and Eastern Europe into an early winter blast.

Other than a small window of sunshine for a couple of hours this afternoon, we've had dull misty drizzly conditions for most of the day....