Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[joggs]

Well this last throws of summer the models were showing 5 days ago for the present time is absolute rank here in west yorks!.Sunday was ok but low cloud and fog been order of the day.Cant wait until this place is buzzing in winter lol.

[Frosty.]

Well this last throws of summer the models were showing 5 days ago for the present time is absolute rank here in west yorks!.Sunday was ok but low cloud and fog been order of the day.Cant wait until this place is buzzing in winter lol.

I blame the very quiet hurricane season so far for the current stagnant sluggish pattern, I had read it was supposed to be a very active season which would have the knock on effect of firing up the atlantic and bringing our autumn to life but we are still stuck in a rut with our current anticyclone being squeezed out and pressure falling from the southwest as time goes on but with slow changes.

[UV-RAY]

I blame the very quiet hurricane season so far for the current stagnant sluggish pattern, I had read it was supposed to be a very active season which would have the knock on effect of firing up the atlantic and bringing our autumn to life but we are still stuck in a rut with our current anticyclone being squeezed out and pressure falling from the southwest as time goes on but with slow changes.

Good analysis Frosty, I think the lacklustre hurricane season is the reason for such a quiet sluggish spell of weather and until we see the thermal gradient between the pole and the tropics increase then the borefest will continue.

[Captain Shortwave]

Good analysis Frosty, I think the lacklustre hurricane season is the reason for such a quiet sluggish spell of weather and until we see the thermal gradient between the pole and the tropics increase then the borefest will continue.

It should improve by Friday when the wind picks up from the south. The weekend might be quite interesting with potentially thundery rain pushing up from the south.

What's being shown for next week isn't too bad with low pressure clashing with heights to the east which again gives the chance of thundery downpours mixed with sunny spells.

Whilst it's not ideal, I will take the polar profile as it is instead of having the polar vortex on our side of the pole where it might stick for months on end. Good signs for the winter at least.

[Yarmy]

It should improve by Friday when the wind picks up from the south. The weekend might be quite interesting with potentially thundery rain pushing up from the south.

What's being shown for next week isn't too bad with low pressure clashing with heights to the east which again gives the chance of thundery downpours mixed with sunny spells.

Whilst it's not ideal, I will take the polar profile as it is instead of having the polar vortex on our side of the pole where it might stick for months on end. Good signs for the winter at least.

 

Yeah, short term pain, long term gain, hopefully.

[Summer Sun]

Once again this morning there is no northern blocking forming fully for now and into October GFS shows a deep low heading over Greenland and high pressure building back in the Atlantic heading to the UK right at the end

 

 

ECM has no real cold in sight this morning either

 

 

Although we'll be in October next week with the wind coming up from the south it could feel quite humid and muggy with some thundery rain possible

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

Hi everyone. Here is the morning review of the midnight outputs supplied by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday September 24th 2013.All models show the UK bathed in a warm and moist but very light ESE flow over the SE and SW over the North. Areas of mist and fog would be commonplace night and morning for a few more nights with some pleasantly warm sunshine in the South today and rather less so tomorrow. A little rain is shown for the far North from a trough edging down from the North while a showery feature moving North through Western Britain late tomorrow and Thursday could give some showery rain here too for a time. Elsewhere the rest of the week looks like staying largely dry and still on the warm and humid side as winds remain from a warm SE point. Over the weekend changes do continue to be shown from all models as Low pressure continues to edge towards the SW with the potential of more appreciable rainfall for the South-Western half of the UK though it looks far from a washout for many with some dry, cloudy but mild weather still around as well.

 

GFS today takes us into next week with Low pressure very slowly edging up from the SW across the UK and away North filling as it does so. Outbreaks of rain would be the order of most days in the first half of next week, heavy in the South for a time before drier air spreads North and East across the UK later in the week as pressure rises again from the South. With High pressure re-established to the West of the UK at the end of the run the weather would turn more changeable and cooler again, mostly in the North and East with a sunshine and shower mix to end the run but with dry and fine weather for SW areas too.

 

UKMO today maintains a SE flow over the UK next week with cloudy and humid weather with occasional rain likely for most but more especially towards the South and West while the North and East could stay largely dry.

 

GEM shows a bank of Low pressure out to the West and SW  next week with High pressure over Europe. The net result remains for unsettled weather over the UK with a Southerly wind carrying bands of rain North over the UK regularly in temperatures well up to the seasonal normal if not above in any brightness.

 

NAVGEM today also shows unsettled conditions in a SE flow around Low pressure out to the West and SW of the British Isles with areas of rain and showers pushing up into Southern Britain at times, where some of it could be heavy while Northern and Eastern areas have the best chance of missing a lot of the rain and staying dry if mostly cloudy.

 

ECM shows a SE flow turning SW late in the run carrying successive rain bearing fronts mostly over Western Britain while the East misses the worst of the rain in temperatures still on the warm side of average at times.

 

At the end of the run the Jet Stream is shown to be riding North again as pressure slowly builds from the South and SW probably bringing mostly dry conditions back soon after the expiry of the run with High pressure back to the South of the UK.

 

The GFS Ensembles maintain a slow cooling trend today from current levels though the progress is extremely slow. It takes until almost the end of the run to reach average levels so humid and warmish conditions look prevalent for a good while yet. There is plenty of rainfall shown once the current high pressure loses it's grip from the East from the 29th but no huge amounts look likely despite it's regularity shown by some output.

 

The Jet Stream shows a split flow developing from the end of the week with a weak arm moving East North of Scotland at the end of this week while a new arm feeds our circulation down to the SW and invigorates a deep low which sends cloud and rain north over the UK at times. The trend thereafter is unclear but if the GFS operational is to be a guide it will move back North over the Atlantic again towards the end of next week.

 

In Summary while unity between the output is quite strong this morning the details are very difficult to pin down. I notice today that a lot of the output fills successive depressions as they approach the SW as High pressure over Europe wards off the full impact Nationwide from these features. As a result the West and SW of the UK would see a fair amount of rain while the amounts that reach the East could be far more sketchy in amounts. In addition the trend towards cooler conditions is slowed while winds are drawn up from a South or SE quadrant so it now looks that mild weather will persist well into next week albeit cloudy and humid for much of the time. Looking into the far reaches of the outputs extent and it could be that High pressure is encouraged to build from the South or SW again which would send the Jet back North and return drier, quieter conditions for all such as GFS and ECM hint at but this is speculative at best at that range.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[Frosty.]

Good analysis Frosty, I think the lacklustre hurricane season is the reason for such a quiet sluggish spell of weather and until we see the thermal gradient between the pole and the tropics increase then the borefest will continue.

Thanks SI I fully concur with your comments about the current borefest.

Edited September 24, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

 I think the lacklustre hurricane season is the reason for such a quiet sluggish spell of weather and until we see the thermal gradient between the pole and the tropics increase then the borefest will continue.

I agree 100% with you SI..at least if we get thundery rain and showers it will be much better than the current tedious dull, dry and murky dross which is one of the things I hate about autumn, roll on the cold weather.

Edited September 24, 2013 by Frosty.

[draztik]

The updated ec32 can be split into 3 distinct parts this morning.

Friday thru 8th October - largely unsettled

9th thru 18th - largely settled with high pressure bang over us

19th - 24th - turning more unsettled.

In terms of temp, nothing particularly warm or cold.. Looks as tho Septembers weather will be extended well into October, with 'average' autumn at its best.

Edited September 24, 2013 by draztik

[joggs]

I blame the very quiet hurricane season so far for the current stagnant sluggish pattern, I had read it was supposed to be a very active season which would have the knock on effect of firing up the atlantic and bringing our autumn to life but we are still stuck in a rut with our current anticyclone being squeezed out and pressure falling from the southwest as time goes on but with slow changes.

I've read the atlantic hurricane season is flopping mainly due to lack of moisture in the atmosphere where it counts,also the pacific side!.The last time this majorly occured was 1977,due to what?,pdo cold?,.Anyway best get back on topic lol.Just hope models start to show some good mobility soon for me.

[snowking]

The updated ec32 can be split into 3 distinct parts this morning.

Friday thru 8th October - largely unsettled

9th thru 18th - largely settled with high pressure bang over us

19th - 24th - turning more unsettled.

In terms of temp, nothing particularly warm or cold.. Looks as tho Septembers weather will be extended well into October, with 'average' autumn at its best.

 

Timings are a little liquid but I fully agree with that as an outlook.

 

You might remember from my post about the MJO phase 6 a few days back about how the general trend in the transition from September to October is for a slight Westwards shift in the atlantic trough, well increasingly over the last few days the ECM 0z has started to move towards this idea:

 

 

It may be just a little premature in how quickly this is taking place, but the overall idea at the moment looks to be a Westward shift in the Atlantic trough over the next 10-15 days, which means that much of the UK should remain on the warmer side of the trough, and then after that there has been a very noticeable tendency over the last few GEFS runs for a pressure rise towards days 14-15:

 

 

Still a lot of scatter as one would expect at that range, but the general idea for SLP has been a rising trend towards the very end of the run.

 

Where will any potential HP become placed? Well my own October analogues had it slap bang over the UK, though there is a tendency at the moment for the placement to be just to the North-East of the UK.

 

SK

[Frosty.]

The latest Ecm 00z ensemble mean is crystal clear about one thing, it's going to be feeling warm for the next 10 days, it shows the weather over the uk remaining very sluggish for the next few days with light winds, a lot of cloud and even a few showers drifting northeast mixed with patchy rain further northeast and some lucky areas will have sunshine at times, temperatures in parts of wales reached an impressive 25 celsius 77F yesterday and since our airmass is sourced from southern europe, any decent sunny spells will see temperatures rocket into the mid 70's F but the dull murky areas held back nearer 19c. There are changes afoot, weak ridging looks like bringing drier and potentially brighter weather eventually to the far northeast of the uk and a large area of low pressure will be pushing slowly northeastwards towards the uk, this will stir the air up a bit and bring a more definate SE'ly breeze which will continue to draw warm air northwards into the uk, pressure will continue to fall and by friday and the weekend there is a risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms across at least the southern half of the uk and some areas missing the showers and being sunny and potentially very warm. Into next week, atlantic low pressure finally gets it's act together and begins to have increasing impact across more of the uk with winds picking up and veering more towards south of west but continuing to feel warm, there will be high pressure to the northeast across northern europe but the atlantic low seems to have the momentum but remains out to the west with a constant feed of tropical maritime air flooding across the uk next week.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Looks like being unsettled from this weekend until at least next Weds according to the GFS 06Z. Still relatively warm though.

[Captain Shortwave]

Looks like being unsettled from this weekend until at least next Weds according to the GFS 06Z. Still relatively warm though.

The GFS making an absolute hash of Scandinavia region, completely different to the ECM/UKMO at day 5, though the conditions over the UK are not much different. Not a good sign for the GFS and the coming winter if blocking to the north east rules the roost.

[Methuselah]

The GFS making an absolute hash of Scandinavia region, completely different to the ECM/UKMO at day 5, though the conditions over the UK are not much different. Not a good sign for the GFS and the coming winter if blocking to the north east rules the roost.

But that ties in quite well the idea that synoptic models don't know how to handle rapid snow-buildup, over northern Eurasia?

[Man With Beard]

The updated ec32 can be split into 3 distinct parts this morning.Friday thru 8th October - largely unsettled9th thru 18th - largely settled with high pressure bang over us19th - 24th - turning more unsettled.In terms of temp, nothing particularly warm or cold.. Looks as tho Septembers weather will be extended well into October, with 'average' autumn at its best.

With regards to the beginning of October, there does seem an increasing trend to place a block over central/eastern europe, if it gets strong enough, eastern parts may miss a lot of the unsettled weather while western areas sit under a succession of Atlantic fronts unable to push through - generally warm for all.

[Bobby]

The first Beast From the East!

 

 

Could produce some snow in Scotland, just for laughs though...

[Yarmy]

The first Beast From the East!

 

 

Could produce some snow in Scotland, just for laughs though...

 

More like the poodle from the Urals

[Summer Sun]

The GFS making an absolute hash of Scandinavia region, completely different to the ECM/UKMO at day 5, though the conditions over the UK are not much different. Not a good sign for the GFS and the coming winter if blocking to the north east rules the roost.

 

Not a good sign in what way CS?

Edited September 24, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a good sign in what way CS?

We know how badly the GFS handled heights to the north east last winter. This run ploughs energy from Greenland east into Scandinavia without a moments hesitation. ECM/UKMO don't do this and build heights to the north east.

GFS 

 

UKMO

 

ECM

Big difference and considering where the high is and it's ECM/UKMO vs GFS, GFS is unlikely to be correct. 

 

Add to this Draztik's post on the EC32 dayer, not to unrealistic a scenario in my opinion. Wettest weather in the north and west. Can see how it would pan out based on what the ECM op is producing at the moment.

Edited September 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The first Beast From the East!

 

 

Could produce some snow in Scotland, just for laughs though...

 

i'd take that in October defo.

[Methuselah]

i'd take that in October defo.

I'd prefer it in February...Nowt more than a few days of cack, this early in the season? 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I'd prefer it in February...Nowt more than a few days of cack, this early in the season?

A few days of that cack would be soooo much better than this current cack

[Captain Shortwave]

I'd prefer it in February...Nowt more than a few days of cack, this early in the season? 

That shouldn't be too bad actually, sunshine and showers, probably only of rain at this time of year for most. Still it's the last frame of the GFS so I would need to empty the north sea to get the required amount of salt to take with this chart 

^North sea cack is by far the worst cack there is 

Edited September 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave