Model Output Discussion 06Z, 13 Sep. 2013 ---->

[mushymanrob]

I hope that that stays where it is;

 

.....all winter too....

 

Except this isn't fine weather. It's cloudy and humid, the worst type of weather.

 

thats a matter of opinion, and not one everyone shares, however its unlikely to be so overcast and humid as we pick up a breeze from the southeast quadrant. so we keep the warmth, lose the fog and dew, get more sunshine and for many itll be largely dry (southern showers the exception) for the next several days ... cant be bad!

[Summer Sun]

ECM is keeping deep low pressure systems away from the bulk of the UK

 

This is the closest any lows get on ECM this morning

 

 

Before the high blocking its path eastwards forces it up to Iceland

 

 

 

We end with a huge area pf high pressure as well covering a lot of Europe

 

 

 

GFS also starts to build pressure at t216 & t240 like ECM

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Unfortunately it seems metoffice updates have been taken a little out of context here

 

Through the following weekend it may turn somewhat colder generally, especially for northwestern areas.

Whilst colder is mentioned, there is no mention of any typical tropes from colder weather, for example no mention of frost or potential wintry showers over hills, then you look at the ECM for next weekend

 

Perfectly in line with the metoffice update. Cooler uppers move into all areas especially the north west. Brief and unspectacular but colder nonetheless. Wouldn't last too long as a tropical maritime south westerly sets up beyond here.

Edited September 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Tim Bland]

-8 uppers over East Europe is quite impressive for the time of year !

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Hibernation till mid-October anyone  

Edited September 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

-8 uppers over East Europe is quite impressive for the time of year !

Just so long as the continue to impress - in Eastern Europe - I'll be happy enough... 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 00z mean shows the weather becoming more generally unsettled into next week with strong s'ly to sw'ly winds at times but tending to moderate later and veer more towards wsw'ly, there will also be outbreaks of rain during next week, interspersed by brighter and showery spells and temperatures about where they should be for this time of year but the airflow is very mild, in the dry and sunny spells between the wet weather it will be on the warm side of average. In the meantime, most of the uk looks bright and dry with sunny periods but cloudier with some rain for parts of the west and southwest today as a front separates the fresher clearer air and the warmer, duller muggy air to the southwest, temps today reaching a high of 20c in favoured spots, more of a southeasterly breeze tomorrow which will help to break the clouds up and bring long sunny spells to many areas, there is a risk of a few showers across southern england but most areas look fine and dry, the showers risk appears to have diminished somewhat. 

 

Later in the run, the warmth gradually drains away, especially across northern britain where it could become cold enough for overnight frosts and even a risk of wintry showers for the scottish mountains towards mid october. I really get the impression that a cold surge south is possible towards mid october. the PFJ looks poised to dive south but it depends on how high the pressure will be to the south of the BI at that time.

[Mark Neal.]

6z gfs run upto Tuesday shows warm over coming days with low pressure to the west trying to cut in. Mild uppers still across much of the UK especially across eastern areas. Bands of rain to western side of UK, may move inland for a time but hitting block as trying to move east. We have a warm southerly feed by Tuesday. 

[Mark Neal.]

By Wednesday, Low pressure finally moves in bringing a band of heavy rain moving eastwards across the UK. By no means cold though as 8c uppers across whole of UK, with 10c uppers close to the SE. 

[Mark Neal.]

GFS 6z thursday 3rd October onwards, shows low pressure in control as we head into end of the week, but by start of the weekend pressure tries to build from the South.

We have a pressure build as we head into Sunday the 6th. So settling down it seems after a short spell of low pressure, though cooler than we have seen in recent days as cooler uppers still over us as we saw the more atlantic airmass over us as we start October.

 

High pressure as we start the 2nd week of October however a deep area of low pressure out in the Atlantic starts to move closer. Tuesday sees that low divert northwards as pressure stays high over the UK bringing settled and dry weather. We have that deep low by Weds 9th in Atlantic only getting closer to the Western side of the UK, as we see a blocking high over the UK.

 

FI ends with Atlantic roaring back as we see deep lows spread eastwards across the UK. Reverting back to zonal. 

Edited September 26, 2013 by Mark Neal.

[Captain Shortwave]

Bring on the colder than average November which is predicted. I have a feeling October is going to be very slow and quiet on here.

I'm seeing very little here other than a constant flow between the south and west, even the 06z GFS couldn't deliver anything to the contrary.

Though I'm not surprised by this, prior to the last couple of weeks the thoughts for October have been generally warmer and drier than average, I guess we should have some hope as the weather appears to be going to the long term script.

^The end of FI doesn't look particulary zonal, just looks like a rinse and repeat of the rest of the run, low pressure spreading north east, Azores high pushing towards the UK yet again.

Edited September 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a large atlantic depression dominating our weather during next week, it can't push through the uk because of a blocking high across norway and the uk is very mild with occasionally strong s'ly winds and bursts of rain pushing from west to east, eventually, the atlantic low begins to fill and drift away northwest with the scandi anticyclone slipping further south, in the process, winds across the uk moderate and veer sw'ly, as the atlantic low continues to drift away, we end up with a nw/se split with the northwest of the uk remaining unsettled with rain at times and temperatures close to average but pressure rising a little to the southeast across the near continent with more benign conditions returning with overnight fog and becoming relatively cooler.

Edited September 26, 2013 by Frosty.

[syed2878]

compare to what we have atm i would rather have wet and unsettelld. Sadly the models arnt showing this.

[Paul]

Michael Fish is back with his latest forecast - slowly turning more unsettled..

 

[Summer Sun]

No real end in sight for this prolonged quiet period of weather going by the ensembles

 

 

Even in FI from GFS we see new areas of high pressure developing firstly to our east then the Azores

 

 

As the high shifts east warm uppers move in for a time

 

 

GFS ends with the Azores moving up

 

 

This talk of colder weather from the met office they say it may turn somewhat colder but especially for northwestern areas

 

Through the weekend and into the following week it will remain unsettled but may turn somewhat colder generally, especially for northwestern areas.

 

Those seeking some storms may be better off taking a break from the models as there is nothing in sight realistically for the next 2 weeks at least the high to our east next week kills off any lows as they can't move eastwards and instead head up to Iceland

Edited September 26, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tamara]

I think that a gradual evolution from a west/east split to something more generally unsettled is being modelled well atm.

 

The EPS members illustrate the split clearly enough by day 6

 

 

A natural progression from this is often to force the alignment of the isobars ever more positively tilted (ie more SW-NE rather than SE-NW) but this process is often over modelled and can take longer than anticipated. I think we have already seen this in recent days with the pattern already backed further west in terms of the extent of rainfall this coming weekend.

 

It is highly likely though that eventually pressure will be eroded with the upper low focussing more to the NW of Britain, losing the -NAO profile in the process. This in turn means that downstream ridging seems conceivable over nearby Europe and with the most unsettled conditions being towards NW areas. 

 

There is still the scenario of a mid latitude blocking High re-inforcing the more settled pattern however and making any unsettled breakdown short lived more especially for SE UK in general. On the basis of the persistent higher pressure anomaly to the NE then this remains quite a possibility as a trigger point for squeezing frontal systems out as they attempt to migrate south eastwards and there is a re-joining with the Azores High.

 

No sign of anything especially below normal temperature wise, but then do we want this in October anyway?  What matters in the coming weeks is that snow and ice distribution keeps accruing where we want it to most especially on the Siberian sector of the arctic

Edited September 26, 2013 by Tamara Road

[TootyFruity]

Hi tamara

The snow and ice distribution thats accuring that you spoke off what effect will that have on the winter in the UK

Thanks

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, the GEFS 06Z mean appears to show stalemate at T+144 hours, atlantic low pressure trying to push eastwards but the scandi high being too strong and holding the low back, beyond this point in time, two things happen, the atlantic low throws in the towel and begins to fill and drift away northwestwards towards iceland and the scandi anticyclone has also had enough and begins to drift away southeastwards but as it does so, it throws a ridge westwards across northern france and then the ridging pushes up into the uk to bring another benign spell but probably with more in the way of fog and colder nights with temperatures near average by day, pleasant in the sunshine but chilly if the fog hangs around, meanwhile, low pressure to the north gradually gets it's act together again and slowly pushes east which drags the PFJ further south through scotland, eventually bringing relatively colder air of polar origins to make inroads southeastwards into the uk with a risk of showers turning wintry on far northern hills & mountains but that's a long way off and by no means certain.

 

In the meantime, the next 2-3 days should be pretty decent with a lot of fine and pleasant weather with long sunny spells but with a freshening se'ly breeze taking the edge off the temperatures which are reasonable for this time of year, generally in the high teens celsius, the weather tends to become more unsettled into next week with strengthening s'ly winds and rain trying to push east off the atlantic but again with winds from the south it will be very mild for early october. By the second half of next week it could be more of a nw/se split with the northwest continuing unsettled and breezy with winds veering sw'ly with spells of rain but further southeast the winds eventually moderate and then fall light with more tranquil benign conditions returning.

[Tamara]

Hi tamara

The snow and ice distribution thats accuring that you spoke off what effect will that have on the winter in the UK

Thanks

In (very) brief and simple terms it creates a feedback cycle such as we saw last winter for pressure to be high to the north east and enable a dense cold pool of air to accrue in situ due to the 'albedo effect'. With such blocking of pressure, it is possible if the jet stream energy from the west is compliant, for cold easterly winds to stretch as far as the UK and create the ideal conditions for snowfall as low pressure is disrupted SE'wards under the UK rather than across it or to the north of us as we find in the milder winters.

 

It is not relevant in strict terms to the discussions of the current synoptics for the foresseable outlook as such, as discussed topically here on the MOD thread, but it is something that a lot of members will be having an eye on in the coming weeks and is bound to be raised every now and then

[Mark Neal.]

Hi tamaraThe snow and ice distribution thats accuring that you spoke off what effect will that have on the winter in the UKThanks

 

Also you may find this thread very interesting.. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77585-snow-and-ice-in-the-northern-hemisphere-201314/ 

[Frosty.]

The GFS 12z operational run is very bullish compared to the gefs 06z mean and pushes the atlantic low right across the uk next week which has a knock on effect for the upstream pattern, a more zonal flow with depressions tracking in and regular changes in airmass between tropical maritime and returning polar maritime or Pm air but towards the end of the run, atlantic high pressure builds in to set up another anticyclonic spell with pleasant sunny days and chilly nights with slight frosts and fog patches, however, most of the run is unsettled with strong winds and rain pushing east next week followed by cooler, showery weather with showers eventually turning more wintry on northern hills & mountains later in FI before building high pressure cuts off the cold air supply and intensifies over the top of the uk, lots of changes on this run, very progressive.

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS still the most east with the pattern overall

 

UKMO

 

GEM

NAVGEM

 

 

GFS probably being too quick with the breakdown of the Scandi high

Edited September 26, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cloud 10]

GFS still the most east with the pattern overall

 

 

GFS probably being too quick with the breakdown of the Scandi high

 

Looks like the gfs is warming up for winter. 

[Frosty.]

Looks like the gfs is warming up for winter. 

As long as the weather gets cold I don't mind what it does.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

By Wednesday, Low pressure finally moves in bringing a band of heavy rain moving eastwards across the UK. By no means cold though as 8c uppers across whole of UK, with 10c uppers close to the SE. 

Like how the chart is showing a sub zero poke from the Beast from the East, almost like its saying 'watch yourself this winter Europe'!

Very surprising to see the -8 uppers over Eastern Europe already!