The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 26/10/13 16z----->

[Gord]

Beautiful day today. Such a treat to get weather like this at this time of year.

[Dancerwithwings]

The sun has definitely got it's hat on today, A little on the chilly side but who cares after the week we've had Enjoy the

[Bishop Brennan]

Nope, still not getting out of bed yet........

 

 

Bish

[Gord]

The sun is a lovely distraction from the model output thread!

[conor123]

First lovely day in a while and quite pleasant in the sunshine, cloudzilla now returning from the north however to end the day.

[Gord]

First lovely day in a while and quite pleasant in the sunshine, cloudzilla now returning from the north however to end the day.

 

That's a shame if the cloud is coming back in. Could have been a lovely crisp evening and night ahead.

[Staffordshire]

ECM sticking to it's guns with a good run for coldies! Gfs a bit disapointing still but it could be the case of gfs picking up the idea, dumping it when other models come on board then picking it back up with a few days to go, so we could see gfs coming into agreement around Tuesday next week, it has happened earlier this year.

Edited November 30, 2013 by Staffordshire

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z GFS better, good blast arriving Thursday evening, showing snow through cheshire Gap

[Summer of 95]

Cheshire Gap set up would be nice (as long as the wind isn't too westerly) but will it be cold enough, and able to stick? It hasn't been below freezing for more than a few hours at a time yet, and what are the uppers looking like? No use having the right synoptics if all we get is 3C and sleety non-sticky stuff.

[snowangel32]

Cheshire Gap set up would be nice (as long as the wind isn't too westerly) but will it be cold enough, and able to stick? It hasn't been below freezing for more than a few hours at a time yet, and what are the uppers looking like? No use having the right synoptics if all we get is 3C and sleety non-sticky stuff.

 

I would settle for anything white to be honest to kick off winter, Hope the ecm is correct then we could get some snow, but to try and nail down where precipitation will fall in the uk and what uppers there will be at this time range is impossible all cards still on the table and anything can happen, even the models dont agree with eachother at this time range. So lets all hope for a white midlands it would be nice to kick off December. Going bed nite evreone.

[Polar Maritime]

Hopefully we will see some snow by the end of the week, when winds turn to a much colder Northerly. 

[Dancerwithwings]

I know ramping already, But i could'nt help myself looking at the precipitation/temp charts....Glass always half full that's me

 

Then streamers 'R US' come Firday Hopefully a little more towards the east!

 

Looking like an ice day come Friday and with that bitter northerly, balaclavas at the ready folks

 

 

 

 

Welcome winter

[Gord]

The biggest problem with the Cheshire Gap in these situations isn't the precipitation type, it's the angle of attack from the showers. Everything needs to be in the right place and at the right angle to get the maximum effect for us. And if we do get it right, it can be very short-lived as a slight shift in the wind direction takes it all away. These kind of details I wouldn't want to predict until the showers were on the radar.

 

For now...the gloom is back..it's even bought a few specks of drizzle with it this time.

 

Quick question...are we expecting much excitement from the cold front itself on Thursday? Maybe not the on the scale of the one that came through on the 16th December 2010 when there was that rapid rise in temperatures followed by the rapid temperature drop. But something to look out for?

Edited December 1, 2013 by Gord

[Ian Brown]

The biggest problem with the Cheshire Gap in these situations isn't the precipitation type, it's the angle of attack from the showers. Everything needs to be in the right place and at the right angle to get the maximum effect for us. And if we do get it right, it can be very short-lived as a slight shift in the wind direction takes it all away. These kind of details I wouldn't want to predict until the showers were on the radar.

 

For now...the gloom is back..it's even bought a few specks of drizzle with it this time.

 

Quick question...are we expecting much excitement from the cold front itself on Thursday? Maybe not the on the scale of the one that came through on the 16th December 2010 when there was that rapid rise in temperatures followed by the rapid temperature drop. But something to look out for?

 

I would think it unlikely Gord unless the cold air gets ahead of the PPN. 

[Gord]

I would think it unlikely Gord unless the cold air gets ahead of the PPN. 

 

Thanks for the answer though I didn't necessarily mean looking out for snow (even though the example I gave was one when it turned to snow on the back edge...so sorry for misleading there!), I was wondering if it will be noticable? i.e.  a sudden squall with heavy rain?

 

Sometimes cold fronts come through with a bang, sometimes, the only way you know they've been is when the sky starts to clear.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Gord

[I remember Atlantic 252]

expecting a backtrack on tonights ECM run, GFS has had this right all along really, will be a quick northerly from 9pm thursday, to 9am friday, window of opportunity for snow getting shorter every run

 

but at least not a typical Dec, low after low 10C and rain, it does look reasonably dry at least

Edited December 1, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[I remember Atlantic 252]

backtrack on ECM as expected but still good, very cold dry days fri and Sat, cannot often say that in Dec

[conor123]

Lol knew it!!!! NEVER can get an exciting northerly/north westerly anymore, always have to rely on cold from the east or Atlantic system events (last winter), the northerlies always end up blasting into Central/Eastern Europe in the end.

ECM would still be decent Friday, but I think a chilly sunny spell is more likely than snow, which after the grey Autumn will still be a major improvement!

Edited December 1, 2013 by conor123

[snowangel32]

backtrack on ECM as expected but still good, very cold dry days fri and Sat, cannot often say that in Dec

 

yep the high further east on all models now, looks like one cold day with very little chance of snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Not a bad run though, snowless but could well be frost and fog, sunny days, any further south though with the high and its dull and damp

[PolarWarsaw]

It didn't ever come inside t100 - thus it's not a downgrade it's just a pattern that's lost it's way. 

 

The word downgrade is commonly over-used in the wrong context. 

 

If there's anything anyone has learnt is that in winter, unless it comes within t72 it's not guaranteed.

[cyclonic happiness]

Oh well, nice to see everything has downgraded to normal again for the Midlands.

We really do get the worst luck in this region don't we?

And now we shall all start chasing the easterly in FI and we'll be hopeful and our imaginations will run wild, but it will fall at the last hurdle again.

One day, just as hell freezes over, the models will upgrade dramatically within 72 hours and we will get our dream winter.........

One day.......

[Dancerwithwings]

One day, just as hell freezes over, the models will upgrade dramatically within 72 hours and we will get our dream winter.........

One day.......

 

Now that would be nice (within 72 hours) but that does happen (rare i must add) , But only when cold air is in place and on approach a system stalls dropping a lot more than we were expecting.

 

Chin up anyway! Plenty more days left in this winter yet And looking at FI Yes i'm sure our imaginations will be running wild if the other models start showing Eastern promise,

But me! Nah not yet, I'm keeping that at bay atm

 

Would'nt give up on seeing snow just yet How many times we've retired for the night and woke up to winter

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Dancerwithwings

[PolarWarsaw]

So far this season we've had. 

 

- 2 northerly atttemps

- 2 topplers originally shown to be something 'more' at around the 7-8 day period by the models

- They are actually going to turn out as 2 'blink and you miss it' 24 hour events. 

- It's not been mild, or remotely zonal for at least 3 weeks now. 

- 2 attempts, 2 fails. 

- Attempt number 3 - - > An Easterly modelled at around day 10-11. 

 

Easterlies, december and the ECM....Hmmm... I'll be back when it's at t-24.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Even at 24, modelled by ECM likely to be wrong! GFS all the way folks sadly, no easterly mid Dec