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Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

Low pressure to north is lower than forecast,

 

post-5986-0-94095300-1382878250_thumb.gipost-5986-0-98447700-1382878255_thumb.gi

 

The question is, does this make a swing north more likely for St Jude?

Edited by Sparkicle
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&map=eur_full&area=eur&size=large

 

For what it's worth, the coming depression is currently around 4mb deeper that what had been modeled for this time from the 06z GFS run.  It'll be interesting (perhaps) to check this again around 6pm - where it's meant to be off the SW UK at around 990MB (according to the GFS)

 

Edit - Sn0wman got there first! :-)

Pretty much as the 6z NAE projected

 

Posted Image

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted

Those posting observations, that is great, be good if another thread could be setup with purely this type of thing, might allow us to spot how things are developing compared to how models saw things. 4mb seems minimal but could be the difference in 20 mile Northern track of low.

  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Low pressure to north is lower than forecast,

 

Posted Imagemodel.gifPosted Imagereality.gif

 

The question is, does this make a swing north more likely for St Jude?

 

It will have little if any effect as the major depression will likely become the one starting to deepen now in the Atlantic.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

Low pressure to north is lower than forecast,

 

Posted Imagemodel.gifPosted Imagereality.gif

 

The question is, does this make a swing north more likely for St Jude?

How is it deeper than forecast? it's pretty much exactly the same.

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
  • Location: Edinburgh, Scotland
Posted

re how much it has deepened and the position

take care as it is a computer generated chart and you are best using it to track the overall movement and depths rather than from hour to hour. At times you may need to make some kind of subjective adjustments to what a particular hour shows.

Thanks for the advice. :) I've looked at the chart from 4 hours ago and the pressure was calculated at 1004mb then. Still equates to a steady deepening rate of 2mb per hour (down 8mb in 4 hours) so it may not be too far off the mark. 

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)

How is it deeper than forecast? it's pretty much exactly the same.

 

Oops my mistake - read the central pressure rather than the isobar Posted Image

Edited by Sparkicle
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Those posting observations, that is great, be good if another thread could be setup with purely this type of thing, might allow us to spot how things are developing compared to how models saw things. 4mb seems minimal but could be the difference in 20 mile Northern track of low.

 

 

I second this thought. 

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, warm weather not too hot, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted

Those next to us are 350ft high...

 

..In some conditions the wind appears to blow water upwards like a reverse waterfall!

 

http://losingit.me.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/IMG_7412.jpg

I went down a cliff last year just by walking down. It was near Whitby in Yorkshire. There is some high cliffs there but some parts are shallow enough to safety walk down without danger.

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Low pressure to north is lower than forecast,

 

Posted Imagemodel.gifPosted Imagereality.gif

 

The question is, does this make a swing north more likely for St Jude?

In my opinion and I'd say logically YES. As always, we cannot jump to conclusions just yet, but the signs are definitely there for a more Northerly shift.

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Errrmmmm 

Amended East Coast timetable on Monday 28 October

Start date

26/10/2013 20:28:00

Route(s) affected

 

Between London Kings Cross and Leeds / Hull / Scotland

Description

The Met Office is forecasting severe weather affecting much of the East Coast route on Monday 28 October.

Taking their advice into account and in conjunction with Network Rail, East Coast will be working to an amended timetable on Monday 28 October.

The timetable gives added time into schedules due to speed restrictions being imposed which are implemented for safety reasons. Your journey will take longer than normal.

This timetable is available here

Road conditions are also expected to be hazardous, so please allow extra time to reach the station and allow extra time for connecting trains.

Twitter hashtag: #UKstorm

"
Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Gusts topping 50mph here with mean speeds in excess of 30mph. Trees being stripped big time.

Edited by Liam J
  • Like 3
Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

I am afraid folks, the media have lost the run of themselves with this. And an emergency Cobra meeting? Seriously? Everybody needs to stand back and look at the charts as they are, including the MetO, how is this 1 level below the most extreme warning on the scale?

 

This could have been an exceptional event, but all the information currently presented indicates it will be very windy but nothing exceptional and the media circus surrounding the event will badly damage the reputation of meteorological organisations after the low moves through.

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Is it me and if the models are correct is the met office going for a potential huge fall tomorrow morning. The media is really all over this at the moment. 

Posted (edited)

I bet the Met Office forecasters are fumbling for the Prozac right now with all the amber warnings and big storm forecasts, fearing the inevitable irrational backlash about how useless they are if all goes pear shaped.

Edited by Bobby
  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
Posted

winds really picked up here shaking those remaing leaves off.

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Gusts topping 50mph here with mean speeds in excess of 30mph. Trees being stripped big time.

Makes me laugh how Southerly biased the media really are, shameful. They think the only place in the UK is London....

  • Like 8
Posted
  • Location: Evanton ,highlands ,scotland
  • Location: Evanton ,highlands ,scotland
Posted (edited)

i've just looked at our pressure ,it's standing at 969.7 at the moment ,interesting watching this thread,strange watching it from a distance 

Edited by milkmaid
  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted (edited)

Well if they update quickly enough they are covered. If the modelling stays the same and it's mainly a coastal fish spinner that clips the south east I would hope they back track quickly and adjust the warnings. We don't want another storm that never was.

I bet the Met Office forecasters are fumbling for the Prozac right now with all the amber warnings and big storm forecasts, fearing the inevitable irrational backlash about how useless they are if all goes pear shaped.

Edited by The PIT
Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
Posted

I bet the Met Office forecasters are fumbling for the Prozac right now with all the amber warnings and big storm forecasts, fearing the inevitable irrational backlash about how useless they are if all goes pear shaped.

The Forcast will be Cloudy with a chance of meatballs lol...just a film im watching with the kids.
Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Currently can't see this being anywhere near as bad as what the media are raving on about given current model data available. Very windy yes, extreme, no. We have seen many similar events like this over previous years which have failed to materialise, a few days ago it was looking like a major event by Southern England standards but things have really been watered down. 

 

As ever the weather will do what it wants, taking no prisoners. This thread better not turn into a Meto bashing blood bath, like it has done in the past. 

Edited by Liam J
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted

All this balderdash about the METO again. Having just heard their forecast on R4 of 70-80 mph winds along the south coast and in s. Wales they haven't been far out from two days ago on the speed and the track of Jude. Amateurs always know best of course.

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