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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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snow mad Enthusiast

snow mad

Posted
  • Location: suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: deep snow/warm sunshine
  • Location: suffolk
Posted

This is once again turning out to be a poor poor winter Posted Image typical.

It just goes to show that these cycles, sun spots etc mean nothing.

Not winter yet

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Joe Levy Community Regular

Joe Levy

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted

This is once again turning out to be a poor poor winter Posted Image typical.

It just goes to show that these cycles, sun spots etc mean nothing.

We're not actually in winter... that's tomorrow... and there are three months of it...

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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

Correct.

 

 

 

No Ian, as ever I think you're wrong on this one. The UKMO 144 hrs chart is not a bad one. Look upstream, the shallow LP systems towards S Greenland are aligned completely differently for a start and further upstream is hardly reminiscent of raging zonality is it. Keep banging the zonal drum and I'm sure you'll come good eventually. What are we on now? 3 weeks and counting?

 

 

Sorry CC, you and SM might be coming out with the stuff that people want to hear but it is simply not true. The jet is going over the top and the High is a sinker.

 

I hope the ECM shows exactly the same at T144 and then we will see what its T168 goes onto show shall we ?

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Now it seems real..good ol darrenPosted Image

 

snow showers & NNW'ly Gales anyone?Posted Image

post-4783-0-72009700-1385831182_thumb.jp

Edited by Frosty.
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

healthy technical debate is good. i still dont have an answer from those who are saying gfs will be right.  are you basically saying that if we dont get a frigid 3 day northerly blast then gfs is right ?  not sure thats too scientific. or are you saying that ecm will be wrong. thats an ok statement.

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

EssexWeather: "MO-GREPS is not looking healthy for a sustained cold spell. One day event now "

Recent tweet. It could well be that the UKMO will start showing the downgrades soon. Remember the GFS has been as strong with saying "no" to the northerly as the ECM has saying "yes". See whether GEM continues to back the GFS and then if ECM backtracks.

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UV-RAY Seasoned

UV-RAY

Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley
Posted (edited)

This is once again turning out to be a poor poor winter :( typical.It just goes to show that these cycles, sun spots etc mean nothing.

WTF, winter starts tomorrow and what's your view on what the models are showing? Edited by Sceptical Inquirer
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Ian Brown Enthusiast

Ian Brown

Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
Posted

healthy technical debate is good. i still dont have an answer from those who are saying gfs will be right.  are you basically saying that if we dont get a frigid 3 day northerly blast then gfs is right ?  not sure thats too scientific. or are you saying that ecm will be wrong. thats an ok statement.

 

The GFS has shown 3 different solutions today alone so we can't just say it is right if there is no northerly. But on balance I think we will see a climbdown on the ECM in about 80 minutes time to a glancing blow northerly and a strong Northern arm of the jet going forward.

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Winter Monsoon Rookie

Winter Monsoon

Posted
  • Location: Dukinfield 137m ASL
  • Location: Dukinfield 137m ASL
Posted

Steve, you need to admit a wrong call here.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013113012/UN144-21.GIF?30-17

 

The LP to the North of the High is going E/NE. The High is going to sink to Biscay and then it is going to lead to milder weather.

 

 

Ian your going top end up on the ignore list before much longer- considering you are an ex forecaster on here you cannot read a chart?-  the trough axis if facing east into a jet that's going SSE - then it will go south./ South east

 

Im sure the wider audience would correct you in saying its going to go SSE in the next chart with energy build NE behind it to take the ridge that way....

 

 

I wish we could see a T168 UKMO chart but SM is 100% wrong.

 

 

Sorry CC, you and SM might be coming out with the stuff that people want to hear but it is simply not true. The jet is going over the top and the High is a sinker.

 

I hope the ECM shows exactly the same at T144 and then we will see what its T168 goes onto show shall we ?

 

 

 

Tee hee you guys really are arguing over charts that are 144+hrs away arent you? - Sorry mods im posting to to make them realise the futility in their argument.

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Joe Levy Community Regular

Joe Levy

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted

Can we please focus on charts we can see, rather than debate what we can't see, especially since this is a model output thread. Based on the output produced over the last 48 hours, there is an extremely fine line between whether we get deep cold and whether it misses us, but that is why we look at the models, so we can ascertain it. Patience is required here, and there is no point being personal or angry over something which ultimately is out of our control and is not worthy of spiteful or aggressive remarks!

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Next weekends "cold snap" looking good...

Posted Imagevia Imgflip GIF Maker

Anyone up for a BBQ??

 

Indeed, it is only but one run in spite of some suggesting otherwise, we will know more by early next week.

 

For anybody still attempting to gain an understanding of how thing's went awry on this one run, you might wish to read my analysis from earlier. FWIW, the GEFS ensembles will tell us more about the 12z when they churn out later on.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78631-model-output-discussion-30th-november-onwards/?p=2849849

 

Alternatively have a look back a couple of pages where there might something of worth. Not getting at anyone in particular but this is a MODEL discussion thread, not a PERSONALITY discussion thread.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

too many posts saying the same off topic views.........aaaaaaaaand back to the model output discussion, I thank you Posted Image

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

gem doesnt back ecm at all. it does show  a slightly different solution in the medium term/fi. after 5/6 ecm runs which have gone the same way i will be surprised to see it change the tilt on that flow. however, i am expecting it to.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Sorry CC, you and SM might be coming out with the stuff that people want to hear but it is simply not true. The jet is going over the top and the High is a sinker.

 

I hope the ECM shows exactly the same at T144 and then we will see what its T168 goes onto show shall we ?

 

Edited.

Edited by CreweCold
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

EssexWeather: "MO-GREPS is not looking healthy for a sustained cold spell. One day event now "Recent tweet. It could well be that the UKMO will start showing the downgrades soon. Remember the GFS has been as strong with saying "no" to the northerly as the ECM has saying "yes". See whether GEM continues to back the GFS and then if ECM backtracks.

 

Hats off to GFS if its called this right its never been keen to prolong this cold by much more than 2 or 3 days, the same can be said for GEM as well

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Now it seems real..good ol DarrenPosted Image

 

Mosts intriguing and they of course will know better than us, is that my surface feature behind his head too? Also, just to clarify, it is also that feature which is driving the amplification and/or lack of it, Frosty?

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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MrSunshine Contributor

MrSunshine

Posted
Posted

Don't know why you're dragging me into it and stating I'm saying what people want to hear? I've never given an analysis based on 'what people want to hear'? The UKMO 144 hrs chart is not bad....look at the NH plot and tell me that cold is not possible down the line from that. If you can tell me that is 100% a sinker then you're deluding yourself and misguiding the newer members on here who may not be as clued up (and more impressionable) as some experienced posters are.

 

 

Well said CC. Posted Image

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terrier Seasoned

terrier

Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
Posted

So the mogreps model has also watered down the cold spell to 1 day. Think the gfs chart gets way too much stick. Its looking like it could once again be bang on the money.Expect met updates to reflect in there updates now especially if the mogreps model isnt now showing this cold snap.

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Joe Levy Community Regular

Joe Levy

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted (edited)

It's only one run from the ens, but number 9 is the sort of thing we want to see from future op runs if we're looking for deep cold. In terms of longevity I think that's not something we need to focus on right now, as getting the northerly in place at all is proving somewhat complicated. As some of you may comment, it doesn't last very long on this run, but it does give us a good depth of cold and early, which is what I am currently looking at.

Posted Image

Posted Image

Edited by Joe Levy
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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

The GFS has shown 3 different solutions today alone so we can't just say it is right if there is no northerly. But on balance I think we will see a climbdown on the ECM in about 80 minutes time to a glancing blow northerly and a strong Northern arm of the jet going forward.

 

But will the ECM be right even then? The ensembles will be more revealing that's for sure, that'll give us a much better clue.

 

For the attention of all.

 

The GTLTW surface feature will start showing up on Monday's charts (off the Eastern seaboard of the US), I advise us ALL to remain calm up until that timeframe. Whatever, its only the weather and besides, I think it's time for a beer, who's going to join me. Posted Image

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

Navgen and GEM, the closest they get to a northerly:

Navgem at T102: post-14819-0-11530600-1385832274_thumb.p GEM at T126: post-14819-0-88200700-1385832286_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Right, I have just analysed the UKMO T+120 and T+144 charts to see what all the fuss is about. There is no need to get into a big personal argument about it chaps because by the time the next UKMO runs again, no doubt that there will be further changes - so in effect you will never know what the UKMO T+168 would show!

 

My take on it ? Well look at the T+120 and we see the offending low off the eastern seaboard:

 

post-4523-0-42280700-1385832090_thumb.gi

 

Which way does it go by the next frame T+144. Well by my look 75% of the jetstream energy goes over the block with the resultant 25% going under. 

 

post-4523-0-33334400-1385832196_thumb.gi

 

That would tend to suggest that no undercutting would occur and the block would travel east before flattening. But we all know that in another 12 hours the charts may look completely different as they try to get to grips with what actually is going to happen and therefore we can't rule out the 25% option anyway.

 

 

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draztik Rising Star

draztik

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

I hope the ecmwf isn't too far off the mark here.. (not because i want it to be particularly cold), because if it backtracks to a gfs-led evolution, its credibility will be further knocked.

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