Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[gottolovethisweather]

Even for the hopeless, the ensembles (spaghetti plots) as posted above peak on mild at 10/12/13 and go ever downwards as a general trend. How that is "hopeless" for cold I don't know. For both London and Scotland we're going down to 0 - -5 on the T850s as an average of the group (Ensemble mean hitting zero at the end of the runs). Actually not as bad as some would have you think.

 

Indeed Kumquat one or two confusing posts in here and for one, I cannot see much hopecasting going on, maybe hopeless casting by those looking for extremes at either end of the Temperature range, in reality I think there'll be nothing like that. Anyway, the GFS 6z is rolling and I'm watching with interest as maybe HP domination and Bartlett-like HP domination are soon to become 2nd favourites. Those who called for TM moisture-laden zonality may well have called it correct, but at least IMBY the SW flow had last been active on the 12th November. The few colder ensembles are undeniable too so maybe an active Atlantic with alternating PM and TM airmasses in the run up to Xmas is the favourite now. Not weather to my liking, I should add, but there you go.   Yet nothing is nailed unless this trend becomes solid over subsequent runs as we talking t+144 anyhow.

 

In the reliable, gloomy skies, milder trend by day, a distinct lack of penetrating frosts, slight at worst I guess. I imagine you might sneak a mid-fifties Fahrenheit max in the odd location. Not good for this coldie, but hopefully somethings up into Mid-December.

Edited December 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[IDO]

Yes the 06z more in line with the 0z ens with respect to how far the jet slips south D7+:

0z:


06z:

Less unsettled, on this run for the south/SE

Edited December 7, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes the 06z more in line with the 0z ens with respect to how far the jet slips south D7+:

0z: gfs-5-186.png gfs-0-186.png

06z: gfs-5-180.png gfs-0-180 (2).png

Less unsettled, on this run for the south/SE

 

And even after that the GFS 6z defaults to HP domination returning to France and Spain with the Southern and SE UK closest to being effected by this same ole trend. Some say the GFS defaults to zonal, well it did try but it still seemingly has a love affair with HP cells albeit in the far reaches of the run. The key timeframe therefore has to be what happens during between t+144 hours and t+216 hours or within that region, as both post and my own from earlier alluded to.

Edited December 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[nick sussex]

Consistency between outputs is a hallmark of a flat zonal picture, the irony here that we want to see volatility now, the complete opposite of what we want when colder synoptics are projected.

 

The appearance of some weak pressure rises over the pole at T240hrs a small crumb of comfort. Therefore my horror rating for this run drops down to 8.5/10, it was 9.5 on the 00hrs run!

Edited December 7, 2013 by nick sussex

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

So good to see -10 uppers roaring towards Greece whilst we are forecast to be blowtorched.... . Look on the brightside though, at least e.on, NPower, EDF and all the other big names in the energy industry will have egg splattered on their faces as no one will need to use their ridiculously expensive electricity and gas  

One thing that we should also keep an eye on is that bombing low. It could head more toward us depending on the state of the jet, how far N/S it will be. But if that heads more E'ly, then we could well be talking about the next big weather event, just as long as something else doesn't steal the main headlines for the medias publicity!

Have a good weekend all.

[Yarmy]

Well after Suarez continued his one-man vendetta against NCFC, England's horrific batting, and the atrocious model output it's not been a great week.

 

The 06z is marginally better than the 00z. This is about the best I could find:

 

[Purga]

Welcome back the dreaded zonal Bartlett

A succession of High pressure cells moving west to east south of the UK maintaining a bland mild regime.

 

An FI hint of a very brief toppler blip

After that it's 'business as usual' methinks.

Edited December 7, 2013 by Purga

[Frosty.]

This is more like it from the Gfs 06z, once the atlantic fires up and kick starts a more mobile pattern, we will have a chance at colder incursions further upstream, just in time for christmas, the 6z shows what could end up being a cycle of reloading cold shots from the northwest. Any carrots the models dangle in the run up to christmas, if i'm around I will post them.

[Froze were the Days]

Problem is once we get this +NAO foothold it can take weeks and weeks for a pattern shift, 2006-07,1988-89 and quite a few other winters come to mind. So good that we are just in the first week of December but the winter can shoot by in a blink of an eye whilst the pattern is like this.

[swfc]

Welcome back the dreaded zonal Bartlett

A succession of High pressure cells moving west to east south of the UK maintaining a bland mild regime.

 

An FI hint of a very brief toppler blip

After that it's 'business as usual' methinks.

The bottom chart there screams reload from the north!!!!!bring it on   

[Froze were the Days]

This is more like it from the Gfs 06z, once the atlantic fires up and kick starts a more mobile pattern, we will have a chance at colder incursions further upstream, just in time for christmas, the 6z shows what could end up being a cycle of reloading cold shots from the northwest. Any carrots the models dangle in the run up to christmas, if i'm around I will post them.

ah yes! reminds me of the bad ol' days - looking deep into FI for any sign of a change which largely never came about.

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, I'm not gonna worry too much.

We've already had a failed easterly and a failed northerly and a major storm wasn't spotted until the last 48hrs, so why should we believe what the models are showing in FI now?

 

Also the fact that we have a blocked Atlantic at the moment is also encouraging, it wouldn't take a huge amount for the block to slide northeast.

 

I'm positive there will be a major turn-around in what the models are showing within the next few days, it's when they are showing amazing FI's that I'm dubious!

[legritter]

All still to play for gang .Its still very very early days ,not many carrots around and why should we believe the models in their later frames .the weather does look rather unfavourable looking at charts and data and i think they have a good picture of whats coming up over the next 10 days or so but beyond that and the rest of the winter WEare clueless and so are the models . NAO ,AO cant be picked up untill near the time and many other big weather changers so things a week or so from now could look very rosy .my big straw today is based on a little gut feeling that perhaps these high pressure systems close by but in the wrong positions for us coldies will eventually be replaced by low pressure . Sometimes when things look totally Set in Stone ,the weather can pull a surprise ,Crack open a STella and relax ,and hopefully CHILL out .

[winterof79]

An interesting transfer of heights accross the pole from the 06z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120706/gfsnh-0-114.png?6 the 1040mb high which has been a consistant feature

eventually takes advantage of the relocation of the vortex back to siberia.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120706/gfsnh-0-312.png?6

A nice x polar flow for christmas http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120706/gfsnh-0-372.png?6

 

Well thats my upbeat post for today 

[johnholmes]

I wonder what odds bookies will offer for a white Christmas for anywhere in the UK ?

Looks to be no major change with a surface high and upper ridge anchored around 50N east of the UK and an upper trough somewhere between 10 and 30 west over the next two weeks or so?

But then the weather loves to make idiots of us all-you never know. Take a look at some of the 'classic' winters and what the charts show two weeks or so before some of them started-something to do while some of you bite your nails and hope the charts start to show a snow fest starting?

[stewfox]

Deleted

Edited December 7, 2013 by stewfox

[winterof79]

Here you go

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1986/archives-1986-12-7-0-0.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1987/archives-1987-1-6-0-0.png

 

 

GFS o6z http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013120706/gfs-0-60.png?6

 

lots of winter to go

 

Just what i was thinking Mr Holmes

Edited December 7, 2013 by winterof79

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z has all of Scotland, The Republic of Ireland, Northern Ireland and some western parts 3c above average till the 15th remarkable for the time of year

 

[winterof79]

Here is one for the Uncle Barty brigade

 

Hello uncle Barty....now you see him

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-11-23-0-0.png

 

Now you dont...

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-12-7-0-0.png and then drum roll...........

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-12-31-0-0.png

[stodge]

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-12-31-0-0.png

I remember a succession of frontal systems comin in from the SW and stopping in central Scotland before the whole lot rolled south withthe cold HP behind it on New Year's Eve - extraordinary.

 

I'm a lot more positive than some on here this morning - GEM offers an alternative evolution (again) while the far reaches of GFS 06Z aren't too bad and the suggestion that the Sceuro HP may break down a bit quicker than seemed likely yesterday is starting to gain a little supprt.

 

Again, as others have said, it's only the sixth day of the ninety day winter period and there's a huge amount of water (or ice) to pass under the bridge. Just 12 months ago, we had two or three very cold and frosty days in mid-December before a four-week spell of unremitting zonality with too much rain for many and then mild and dry conditions through New Year and even up to mid-January.

 

Many of the LRFs I've seen for this winter have posited a classic "late" winter with February the favoured month for cold and snow so a 10-14 day severe event then will make the winter of 2013/14 memorable and all this will be forgotten (until the next zonal spell) and as I always say - "the route to very cold always starts from very mild"

[winterof79]

I can just imagine the model thread back then, all the mildies turning their heating off ,chests bulging out and

even the most ardent cold ramper sniffling and not daring to forecast such a change in 14 days, PV covering the pole.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-11-23-0-0.png

 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-12-7-0-0.png

 

Its the weather though and it does not care about cold or mild rampers....enjoy people.

[ARNOTT ad]

Here is one for the Uncle Barty brigade Hello uncle Barty....now you see himhttp://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-11-23-0-0.png Now you dont... http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-12-7-0-0.png and then drum roll........... HAPPY NEW YEARhttp://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archives-1978-12-31-0-0.png

Amazing but.... What were the background signal etc compared to now ??? Anyone...

[TonyH]

been around for a few years now tony. we needed to distinguish between euro and scandi. the 'sceuro' term helps as a scandi high is viewed by many as a bringer of deep cold and we had no terminology for a larger block in the area which spread out over much of europe which doesnt really bring any cold flow this way. 

Interestingly the earliest reference I found by googling the invented terminology was way back in June 2008 by your kind self!

 

"sorry to distract you JH but that is more support for my thoughts that ECM is indicating a euro/sceuro high of sorts, dragging up a southerly. the fact that the 8/14 day output magically removes the high 3 days on the bounce must mean that GFS and GEM, in contrast, have no appetite for it. (ECM is absent from the 8/14 day musings on cpc)"

Edited December 7, 2013 by TonyH

[Purga]

I can just imagine the model thread back then, all the mildies turning their heating off ,chests bulging out and

even the most ardent cold ramper sniffling and not daring to forecast such a change in 14 days, PV covering the pole.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-11-23-0-0.png

 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1978/archivesnh-1978-12-7-0-0.png

 

Its the weather though and it does not care about cold or mild rampers....enjoy people.

But that was in the days before AGW had taken hold -

[nodrog]

Think I must be the only one on here looking for Paul Bartlett. And what I see looks good. Especially round 15th / 16th.

(Sorry to go against the grain, but I feel I must stand up for my rights!)