Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Mair Snaw]

Well the evening runs are now complete and the 2 overriding signals remain dry and mild, but temps could still be close to average across some central and eastern parts of England. Quite why some continue to deny what is (and has been for some time) staring us right in the face still puzzles me, but like it or not we are entering Bartlett territory and those that have been here before know all to well that getting out of it can be a very longwinded process. By all means keep looking for +ives, some will come and go for sure across the coming days, but at the same time don't be completely in denial of where we are heading - the route is now very clearly defined, its just the details of our escape that are currently proving elusive...for now.

Any charts to show the Bartlett territory that you are speaking of?? i doubt anybody is in denial in this thread..what we are trying to do is look for trends and signs of what most of us want to see at this time of year...i seem to remember this time last year a number of posts in this thread clearly stating that winter was over all because of a failed easterly....well we had a mild xmas/new year but what followed was far from mild and zonal etc infact some parts of the uk including mine spent most of Jan some of Feb and a large part of March with snow and freezing temps yet in the 2nd week of December winter was over.....so here we are again winters finished its a long way back from here... how is the route anymore clearly defined today more than it was a week ago or more than it will be in a weeks time?? we dont have an escape route this is not a jail break it is the weather and it will do what it wants to do not what we want it to or what any model says it will do....

[kumquat]

We're not going Bartlett. Opportunities for northern exploitation as early as 60 hrs, 126-138 hrs again possibilities, extended highlights at 186hrs, pfj weakening at 240, breaching 48 hrs later. It ain't all over. England - Italy... ample opportunity to visit the flora and fauna of South America. Shots coming in far and wide from all angles. LOL whoops - that was a bit off-topic The word "breach" comes to mind again. Any crack in the PV armour will be worked on. Splits are showing and it only takes (well, maybe three), before we get proper exploitation.

 

(Edit: this is all based on the pub run. I'd expect more sober thoughts from the ECM, UKMO and 12Z tomorrow afternoon. I'll still see those "cracks" though)

Edited December 7, 2013 by kumquat

[snowbob]

We're not going Bartlett. Opportunities for northern exploitation as early as 60 hrs, 126-138 hrs again possibilities, extended highlights at 186hrs, pfj weakening at 240, breaching 48 hrs later. It ain't all over. England - Italy... ample opportunity to visit the flora and fauna of South America. Shots coming in far and wide from all angles. LOL whoops - that was a bit off-topic The word "breach" comes to mind again. Any crack in the PV armour will be worked on. Splits are showing and it only takes (well, maybe three), before we get proper exploitation.(Edit: this is all based on the pub run. I'd expect more sober thoughts from the ECM, UKMO and 12Z tomorrow afternoon. I'll still see those "cracks" though)

love the creative writing thereActually believe though at this moment we have more chance of a cold shot from here than England progressing out of that groupBut seriously the charts will change as quick as they did last weekThis time last year we watched the most amazing easterly on the charts and everyone thought wow this is winter nirvana only for it to be whisked away as quick as a flash with all major models on the 12z 7th DecemberThat's how quick a change can happenThe weather is the weather and we all forget it's something we will never truly understand fullyBut it's fun trying Edited December 7, 2013 by snowbob

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

I'd advise looking at 0z gfs from behind the sofa.

Thats a Bartlett high,a conveyor of HP stretching from the canaries to the Ukraine.

 

Added to that a huge horrid looking PV over Greenland.

I actually don't think the synoptics could get any worse if they tried!

[That ECM]

The PV at day 10 is modelled differently on the GFS and ECM. GFS, if correct, has it in control over the Greenland area. Where as ECM has it moving east. ECM would allow chances of a pressure rise to our nw. It would be hard to see this happening via the GFS.

Not great output for cold. Second best option during winter for me is dry, calm and mild which is looking good. Although I have nearly had my fill of the second option!

[bluearmy]

Over the next two weeks there is a strong likelihood that we lose the n pacific ridging ( be it Alaskan, Aleutians,kamkatchkan), it looks a cert on the extended modelling but the feature has been semi permanent so it's possible the models are getting rid of it too quickly. Will be interesting to see how the zonal winds respond to what should be less wave activity strat wise. Theoretically, it should help ramp up the vortex even more! If it does happen, will be an interesting watch to see if the theory is borne out.

Tropwise, looks grim today as the sceuro edges closer to losing its first two letters. Methinks this is a tad overdone but be aware that the anomolys are showing heights, not pressure patterns and also the deviation away from the norm. The higher heights will always be exaggerated over scandi as Europe is normally under higher 500dam. We could easily have an upper ridge over Scandinavia with a strrong sou'wester surface flow across much of the north of the area.

Almost time for nick to break out the straws!

[TonyH]

I see we have acquired another buzz term, that of sceuro..

[IDO]

. Theoretically, it should help ramp up the vortex even more! If it does happen, will be an interesting watch to see if the theory is borne out.Almost time for nick to break out the straws!

Yes I have been looking at the Pacific Ridge move east for a few days, as it is likely to bring another cold snap to the East Conus:The track from T240: T324: T384: The cold arrives in the US: As you said the loss of the meridional flow allows a very positive AO as the PV's constraints are reduced. CFS also has this synoptic and allows us to see where the ex Pacific Ridge ends up:Creating a super high from the Atlantic to Eastern Europe (by Christmas Eve): With the PV running over the top, any zonal flow is kept to our north. So another three weeks of a Euro High is my call.

[Ian Brown]

I'd advise looking at 0z gfs from behind the sofa.

Thats a Bartlett high,a conveyor of HP stretching from the canaries to the Ukraine.

 

Added to that a huge horrid looking PV over Greenland.

I actually don't think the synoptics could get any worse if they tried!

 

Yes, horrendous stuff this morning for cold fans. The models agreeing now on the High edging East and then settling into the Bartlett position with the jet blasting to Russia. Some very mild days likely in the run up to Xmas.

[bobbydog]

I'd advise looking at 0z gfs from behind the sofa.

Thats a Bartlett high,a conveyor of HP stretching from the canaries to the Ukraine.

 

Added to that a huge horrid looking PV over Greenland.

I actually don't think the synoptics could get any worse if they tried!

 

theoretically, thats good news then.

if we were looking at the perfect synoptics, 2 weeks from now, we all know it would never happen.

lets hope that works both ways...

[bluearmy]

I see we have acquired another buzz term, that of sceuro..

 

been around for a few years now tony. we needed to distinguish between euro and scandi. the 'sceuro' term helps as a scandi high is viewed by many as a bringer of deep cold and we had no terminology for a larger block in the area which spread out over much of europe which doesnt really bring any cold flow this way. 

[snow mad]

Will be interesting to see if in a couple of weeks, now the sun has calmed down a bit if the jet stream starts getting all wobbly again. That's my own theory anyway so don't shoot me down  http://www.solen.info/solar/

[Biggin]

Change the record Shed, your broad statements claiming you know exactly what the weather holds are boring and misguided. You disappear into your shed when cold is on the horizon only to pop out again when a hint of downgrade is showing. We all you know you have an agenda but please can you use another thread.

Indeed, I remember the week on week predictions of a back to zonal weather in the summer that never came. Well it did eventually after a month or so. Still, a stopped clock is right twice a day. The models are showing  boring but not mild scenario atm but seem to prolong the high moving it about a bit, but not really sure what the next move is and where its coming from.

 

Edited December 7, 2013 by Biggin

[lorenzo]

Well it looks like a period of sustained positive NAO / AO with the classic harbinger of doom set up polar vortex hammering away at Greenland, zero shredding of systems at the Greenland tip, oh and locked in for 10 weeks, that would be February 14th btw.

 

Hmm, can't see that happening, although can see this part of winter having a despondent effect on everyone..

 

Looking for cheer in the models, at the NH view both ECM and GFS have indications of weak High Pressure building over the the pole, during these runs there are also subsequent Aleutian lows. Can we get an Aleutian low anchored?

 

Next 6 days also sees the main hemispheric driver the negative EPO move back to neutral, which will shift the pattern around, so whilst looking like a simple case of Greenland Vortex / Azores, there are other things to keep an eye on

.

 

The period of positive NAO was well predicted last week, and is still on course to be roughly the same as predicted, waning towards the 20th of the month, the control run from ECM again at either extreme of the ensemble set. 

 

It's positive for a period, but not rampantly so peaks at +2 deviations and the mean is more neutral.  

 

From  the viewpoint of pure meteorological advance, this is also interesting , whilst it doesn't give everyone a blockbuster Greenland High / Easterly, it continues to validate the predictions put forward by the OPI.

 

The ever loveable GEM has another take on things at day 10, am sure easier on the eye this morning than some of the other output.

 

 

 

[syed2878]

a few senceable posts on here weather we like it or not these setups r a bit of a bi to get out of. 2011-2012 strong pv only saving grase of that winter was february 2012 and the models arnt too inspiring this morning ither. Untill the met come on board no matter how peeps dress up those outputs we r stuck with it. No1's calling winter off but i think deck could be a right off.

[UV-RAY]

Indeed, I remember the week on week predictions of a back to zonal weather in the summer that never came. Well it did eventually after a month or so. Still, a stopped clock is right twice a day. The models are showing  boring but not mild scenario atm but seem to prolong the high moving it about a bit, but not really sure what the next move is and where its coming from.

 

 

Will be interesting to see if in a couple of weeks, now the sun has calmed down a bit if the jet stream starts getting all wobbly again. That's my own theory anyway so don't shoot me down  http://www.solen.info/solar/

Not at all as I believe there is a correlation within a correlation if you know what I mean as going of the previous few years there has been a lag time of around 2-4 weeks when there has been a change in output of this cycle, nothing scientific  to back up such claims merely casual observations.

[gottolovethisweather]

In short, this could be our game-changer? We are still looking at a timescale of six days out before we have any hint of a change but there is hope that this particular chart could evolve into something tastier by t+144 onwards. The GEFS ensembles a couple of days back picked up on a similar signal and have been consistent with the 12th/13th December maybe bringing about something different, yes indeed - see my next post below. The impending change is brought about by the two trough features due West of the UK.

 

 

We will know more come the early part of next week whether there is any emphasis which can be put on this.

Edited December 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[snow mad]

a few senceable posts on here weather we like it or not these setups r a bit of a bi to get out of. 2011-2012 strong pv only saving grase of that winter was february 2012 and the models arnt too inspiring this morning ither. Untill the met come on board no matter how peeps dress up those outputs we r stuck with it. No1's calling winter off but i think deck could be a right off.

 

Wasn't the met hinting at a scandi high just a few days ago?

[Summer Sun]

Must be gutting that one of those places is right over your house

 

Actually I'm not even on the 12z last we we had slightly higher than normal temps

Edited December 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[gottolovethisweather]

And here's the resultant t+144 chart courtesy of the same UKMO 0z run, on meteociel.

 

Looks like a sw'rly driven flow then. Nonetheless if it verified, it would bring about some relief from the current uninspiring weather.

 

 

Not exactly my idea of fun but at least something different may well be in the air.

Edited December 7, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[nick sussex]

The only good thing I can say about the output is that given its looking terrible at the moment for cold conditions at least we've still got time to salvage the Xmas period, had it been cold now you'd bet there would be a change at the end of the month. Also for newbies I'd view this as NetWeather training! many of the folk here have been hardened up by having to endure some hideous mild winters with PV/Greenland love-in, the output at the moment is designed to test our patience and will.

 

We will not be broken!!!

 

Getting back to the models, its a grim looking picture, the high unable to get far enough north generally to bring much surface cold, the GEM is the best of the outputs but even that still won't deliver anything within T240hrs.

 

Typically the UKMO was proved correct with how the upstream troughing phases with that low to the sw, just another irritation as that harpooned the chances of getting the ridge further north, the UKM0 because it only goes upto T144hrs is unlikely to pick up a new trend in terms of cold but you can bet your last pound its always there waiting to deliver even worse news!

 

Overall then its going to be hard going for the next few days in here, hopefully the tumbleweed doesn't start blowing across the thread, for the timebeing this thread is only suitable for those with a sturdy constitution!

Edited December 7, 2013 by nick sussex

[IDO]

And here's the resultant t+144 chart courtesy of the same UKMO 0z run, on meteociel.

 

Looks like a sw'rly driven flow then. Nonetheless if it verified, it would bring about some relief from the current uninspiring weather.

 

UKMO 00z 071213 NH SLP & HGT500 at t+144.gif

 

Not exactly my idea of fun but at least something different may well be in the air.

Thanks but no thanks. A mild zonal flow bringing bands of rain from the SW to the NE. Not buying that one; I would prefer the settled HP dominant scenario. Hopefully in future runs the jetstream will not slide as far south as this run (also on the 0z GFS but minimal support for a shift that south currently). The ECM is more my cup of tea (IMBY bias).

[Purga]

Some fanciful hopecasting amidst the gloom of this morning's NWP output.

To anyone with any realism the situation is hopeless for cold for some time now, not forever nor the whole winter but for the forseeable future.

The models show and ever worsening picture with every run and rock solid mild ENS

 

Scotland is even more appalling

 

Time for the Newspapers to start with the 'Topsy Turvey' stories about daffodills, spring lambs and birds migrating back fron Africa! LOL

Actually, the weather doesn't look like being particularly warm just a mild bland nothingness.

[kumquat]

Even for the hopeless, the ensembles (spaghetti plots) as posted above peak on mild at 10/12/13 and go ever downwards as a general trend. How that is "hopeless" for cold I don't know. For both London and Scotland we're going down to 0 - -5 on the T850s as an average of the group (Ensemble mean hitting zero at the end of the runs). Actually not as bad as some would have you think.

Edited December 7, 2013 by kumquat

[karlos1983]

Some fanciful hopecasting amidst the gloom of this morning's NWP output.

To anyone with any realism the situation is hopeless for cold for some time now, not forever nor the whole winter but for the forseeable future.

The models show and ever worsening picture with every run and rock solid mild ENS

 

Scotland is even more appalling

 

Time for the Newspapers to start with the 'Topsy Turvey' stories about daffodills, spring lambs and birds migrating back fron Africa! LOL

Actually, the weather doesn't look like being particularly warm just a mild bland nothingness.

 

Yep a pretty good analysis there  no question we are locked into this pattern for the next 7 - 10 days, remember all how it took a very long time to shift the heights over Europe in Autumn.

 

Patience required here. pretty good agreement on those Ensembles, the only plus to take from them is they at least start to scatter and generally trend colder after the 13th.

 

The other big plus is it is only 7th December, Especially as recent winters have given decent cold well into March!