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Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

In reality it never was a write off Mucka, and never will be even before the month starts. And that goes with any month.

 

You know you are telling that to someone who has been beating that same drum for nearly a week? Posted Image

But of course I agree.

 

UKMO has a nice strong Arctic high developing but no real ridging being thrown up through Scandi to greet it.

 

Posted Image

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

If we can get the pattern right it does not take long to set up some cold air .Looking at the GFS pressure is rising very nicely in the polar regions but GFS is still showing a low of very deep pressure Just to the south of it ,looks a bit odd to me and i would expect if Gfs is correct on polar high that low should be further south ,so lets hope at this range its struggling with correct pattern ,just another take on it .i havent watched the end of the run yet as posting but we are a few steps hopefully on the road to our Fix .Looking forward to ECM and GEM tonight ,Posted Image

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
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Posted (edited)

Latest NAO update now taking it negative around the 30th and into early Jan

 

Posted Image

 

AO update also going negative towards the end of this month and for early Jan

 

Posted Image

 

Don't be surprised if northern blocking starts to show more on the models for the end of the month and early Jan

Edited by Summer Sun
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Drat I was looking forward to quiet distraction free Christmas

Curse you model output!!! Posted Image

The key is the handling of the deep low from the 27th onwards. You need that to align nicely NW/SE to drive low pressure into Europe with heights building to the north east of the UK. There is a nice Arctic high being pushed across at that time so we might as well use it. The UKMO doesn't seem keen on the idea at the moment with a more limpet trough idea going on. 

GEM will be interesting, well whenever it gets beyond T66 that is.

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

12z looking much better , them lows are being forced ever further South by the Arctic High, If the pattern does decide to edge West , we will not be short of undercutting low pressure ... Starting to think a change will come up around +240 hours and go from there rather than +384

 

Great start to the evening.  

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

NAO defo sliding negative. I really think new year could bring something special. Let's wait for the latest meto long range. Very unlikely but don't write off winter, in theory it still can beat 1947/62....

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

The warming of the stratosphere is looking better and better! Could it be already be having an impact with the emergence of those Arctic heights?

 

Karyo

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Joe Levy Community Regular

Joe Levy

Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
Posted

The warming of the stratosphere is looking better and better! Could it be already be having an impact with the emergence of those Arctic heights?

 

Karyo

It tends to take a couple of weeks before warmings in the strat filter down to the troposphere, so I am not sure if those Arctic heights are a product of that warming. If they aren't, then who knows, maybe the warming will strengthen existing heights!

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted

It tends to take a couple of weeks before warmings in the strat filter down to the troposphere, so I am not sure if those Arctic heights are a product of that warming. If they aren't, then who knows, maybe the warming will strengthen existing heights!

Yes, maybe they are unrelated to the stratospheric warming. Either that, or it has an immediate effect - rapid downwelling?

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SW Saltire Accomplished

SW Saltire

Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
Posted

It tends to take a couple of weeks before warmings in the strat filter down to the troposphere, so I am not sure if those Arctic heights are a product of that warming. If they aren't, then who knows, maybe the warming will strengthen existing heights!

Probably true but BA said previously something that GP had said. This was that when the PV is stronger it will filter through more quickly and have a greater effect... forgive me if I'm wrong
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Grimsby Snow Lover Contributor

Grimsby Snow Lover

Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
Posted

Probably true but BA said previously something that GP had said. This was that when the PV is stronger it will filter through more quickly and have a greater effect... forgive me if I'm wrong

Just out of interest, where is GP? I miss his model commentary.
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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Just out of interest, where is GP? I miss his model commentary.

 

He's left his new job prevents him from posting here

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76241-this-is-the-end/#entry2669590

Edited by Summer Sun
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

Latest NAO update now taking it negative around the 30th and into early Jan

Posted Image

AO update also going negative towards the end of this month and for early Jan

Posted Image

Don't be surprised if northern blocking starts to show more on the models for the end of the month and early Jan

Big fan of those updates Summer.A definate indicator of our mid range prospects i find.

Edited by winterof79
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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Just out of interest, where is GP? I miss his model commentary.

 

He moved onto pastures new some months back and will no longer be posting here.

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Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted

Big fan of those updates Summer.A definate indicator of our mid range prospects i find.

Wet December followed by endlessly snowy and chuffing cold later Winter and early spring anyone? Great for snow lovers - not so great for mountain bikers. Again, I recommend Epping Forest to puddle fans. But the pattern may turn at the end of the month..
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

ECM still has us in some chilly air come boxing day.

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

Edited by Mucka
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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted (edited)

Some tasty FI charts from GFS 12zx

 

Posted Image

 

 

Posted Image

 

Some -40C surface cold showing in N Russia! This is western Russia not E Siberia note.

 

Posted Image

 

Ends nicely

Posted Image

 

IF this were to verify and it's a very big IF, then such dense cold air to the NE would form a very formidable block and things could get very interesting to say the least. Posted Image

 

I suppose ECM will now come along and spoil it all. LOL!Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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Iceaxecrampon Veteran

Iceaxecrampon

Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
Posted (edited)

Best chart for Christmas Eve at 6am if anyone wants to be out at altitude - Western Ireland and usual areas of Alba look promising.

 

 

post-6879-0-14708700-1387736601_thumb.pn

 

 

About as good as it gets really - had a festive hail shower here  about 3pm on the Fylde (99ft asl) - action packed.

 

Ian

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted (edited)

Ukmo and ECM look similar above the pole and with the low over us at 144' however big difference upstream whereby the ECM has spawned a new low of south of Greenland, the met has not... Not sure how that will effect things..

Edited by TSNWK
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted (edited)

Theres a small but very important difference between the Euros and the GFS, the area over northern Norway, the GFS clears the low eastwards, this leaves a gap which allows some ridging to move nw and reinforce the Arctic high, this also allows the high to put more forcing on the pattern.

 

If you follow the GFS at 144hrs from the NH perspective you can see that lighter blue extending towards Svalbard, then continue on till 192hrs you can see this moves nw to meet up with the Arctic high.

Edited by nick sussex
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Jason T Seasoned

Jason T

Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
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Posted

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122212/ECH1-168.GIF?22-0

 

Lows turning to face SW over NW Russia-

Also for the first time this Winter we have a fully split vortex!

 

Expecting possible Svalbard height rises at 192-

 

S

 

PS wheres ian brown?

 

 

Here, I think that's Shed with him as well...

 

post-11193-0-65641900-1387737846.jpg

 

 

No hard feelings chaps, Just festive fun.

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted (edited)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013122212/ECH1-168.GIF?22-0

 

Lows turning to face SW over NW Russia-

Also for the first time this Winter we have a fully split vortex!

 

Expecting possible Svalbard height rises at 192-

 

S

 

PS wheres ian brown?

Not quite

Posted Image

 

Posted Image

Edited by Purga
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