Possible severe Atlantic storms over the Christmas period

[Eskimo]

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #048
ISSUED: 1800UTC SUNDAY 22ND DECEMBER 2013

 

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:
STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - ALL AREAS OF UK
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTLAND, NORTHWEST ENGLAND, WALES, NORTHERN IRELAND, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 0900UTC WEDNESDAY 25TH DECEMBER 2013

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OF A MID-ATLANTIC LOW GENERATING A VERY ACTIVE COLD FRONT AND SEVERE GALES

DISCUSSION:

 

THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS A >160KT JET DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC, A LOW PRESSURE IS ENGAGED AND DEEPENS TO POTENTIALLY SUB-930MB NEAR THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. IN THE PROCESS, A VERY ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TRANSITS THE UK, WITH MEAN WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 55MPH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN REGIONS. GUSTS OF ABOVE 80MPH MIGHT BE POSSIBLE INLAND, WITH PERHAPS HIGHER ON EXPOSED COASTS AND HIGH GROUND. OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, WINDS OF UP TO 60MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IRELAND AND INTO WESTERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND. DAMAGING GUSTS OF ABOVE 80MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR NORTHERN COASTS AND ISLANDS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND IN LEE OF HIGH GROUND. A FURTHER EPISODE OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER TO THE WIND RISK, VERTICAL ASCENT ALONG MONDAY'S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY DEEP, LEADING TO A POSSIBILITY OF INTENSE RAINFALL AND SOME ASSOCIATED DAMAGING GUSTS. ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOVE 60MM ARE EXPECTED WIDELY IN THE WEST, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH PERHAPS HIGHER OVER THE HIGH GROUND OF SCOTLAND, NORTHWEST ENGLAND, WALES AND SOUTHWEST ENGLAND. OWING TO THE WAVING BEHAVIOUR OF THE TRAILING FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY, SOME LOWLAND AREAS OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOVE 60MM. FURTHER SHOWERY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ADD TO TOTALS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH FURTHER FRONTOGENESIS AND SHORTWAVING, RAINFALL IMPACTING AREAS OF NORTHERN IRELAND, WESTERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHWEST ENGLAND MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE A FURTHER 40MM WIDELY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND GROUND SATURATION, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE WARNING AREAS IS VERY LIKELY. UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED DURING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

Edited December 22, 2013 by PerfectStorm

[knightrider]

So that's ok then...?

 

Meanwhile, this latest sat pic shows the cold air filtering down from Greenland /Iceland very well, meeting warmer than usual air north of the Azores. Just where the bulkhead of this storm will form rapidly. So really nobody yet knows how this will pan out until it starts to deepen. Bear in mind the jet-stream is almost 300mph too, so all combined it's a damn messy picture (and probably a nightmare for weather pros to put a finger on)

 

LOL, no that isn't ok I know Braer got severe for some up north but this looks more widespread pretty much all of the UK will feel the effects of this system 1 way or another!

[knightrider]

 

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #048ISSUED: 1800UTC SUNDAY 22ND DECEMBER 2013

 

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS FOLLOWS:STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS - ALL AREAS OF UKHEAVY RAIN LEADING TO A RISK OF LOCALISED FLOODING - WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SCOTLAND, NORTHWEST ENGLAND, WALES, NORTHERN IRELAND, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 0900UTC WEDNESDAY 25TH DECEMBER 2013

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS OF A MID-ATLANTIC LOW GENERATING A VERY ACTIVE COLD FRONT AND SEVERE GALES

DISCUSSION:

 

THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY CONFIDENCE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS A >160KT JET DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC, A LOW PRESSURE IS ENGAGED AND DEEPENS TO POTENTIALLY SUB-930MB NEAR THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. IN THE PROCESS, A VERY ACTIVE FRONTAL ZONE TRANSITS THE UK, WITH MEAN WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO 55MPH INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN REGIONS. GUSTS OF ABOVE 80MPH MIGHT BE POSSIBLE INLAND, WITH PERHAPS HIGHER ON EXPOSED COASTS AND HIGH GROUND. OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, WINDS OF UP TO 60MPH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IRELAND AND INTO WESTERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHERN ENGLAND. DAMAGING GUSTS OF ABOVE 80MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TO THE END OF THE PERIOD FOR NORTHERN COASTS AND ISLANDS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND IN LEE OF HIGH GROUND. A FURTHER EPISODE OF STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ENGLAND OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

FURTHER TO THE WIND RISK, VERTICAL ASCENT ALONG MONDAY'S COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY DEEP, LEADING TO A POSSIBILITY OF INTENSE RAINFALL AND SOME ASSOCIATED DAMAGING GUSTS. ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOVE 60MM ARE EXPECTED WIDELY IN THE WEST, SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH WITH PERHAPS HIGHER OVER THE HIGH GROUND OF SCOTLAND, NORTHWEST ENGLAND, WALES AND SOUTHWEST ENGLAND. OWING TO THE WAVING BEHAVIOUR OF THE TRAILING FRONT THROUGH LATE MONDAY, SOME LOWLAND AREAS OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS OF ABOVE 60MM. FURTHER SHOWERY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ADD TO TOTALS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. IN ASSOCIATION WITH FURTHER FRONTOGENESIS AND SHORTWAVING, RAINFALL IMPACTING AREAS OF NORTHERN IRELAND, WESTERN SCOTLAND AND NORTHWEST ENGLAND MAY ALSO ACCUMULATE A FURTHER 40MM WIDELY INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND GROUND SATURATION, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN THE WARNING AREAS IS VERY LIKELY. UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS NOT ADVISED DURING PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY.http://www.skywarn.org.uk/current.html

 

How reliable is that source?  If that's even remotely true that inland areas in the south could receive 80mph gusts combined with the torrential rain then this is going to be like a warzone!

[knightrider]

Surely the burns day storm would be best comparison, as it was probably the worst storm in the last 30 years or so !!...

Do you think this storm could be that bad?  #Worried

[bobbydog]

my christmas shopping trip should be fun tomorrow......

[be cause]

I hope all those 'elf and safety busybodies have ensured that all dangling decorations can handle a storm (or two) otherwise town centres may be very dangerous places over the next few days 

[Matty M]

One of more severe runs this evening for Ireland

 

widespread sustained winds 35kts, coastal west up to 55kts

 

Potential for extreme winds in squalls with 850hPa winds aloft touching >95kts

[BurntFishTrousers]

18z (pub run, which is sometime sober)

 

-----

 

SE of UK certainly appears to get high winds as the gradient is strong initially. Gales in the Channel.

 

Now note the squeeze over northern France, Benelux, but more importantly, check out the tight isobars west of Ireland. That's hurricane force without a doubt.

 

Then it's the turn of NI, SW/Central Scotland, northern England to experience storm/hurricane gust winds. From an IMBY perspective looks like I'm in deep do-do along with loads more.

 

Midnight, Xmas Eve and the storm is still raging over Scotland, including a battering for Orkney/Shetland.

 

Edited December 22, 2013 by BurntFishTrousers

[Mokidugway]

I hope all those 'elf and safety busybodies have ensured that all dangling decorations can handle a storm (or two) otherwise town centres may be very dangerous places over the next few days

[/quote aye, projectile baubles , not good !..

[ancientsolar]

This could be quite concerning for some caught in the heavy/torrential rain tomorrow. Some serious problems likely!http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx 

[knightrider]

18z (pub run, which is sometime sober)

 

-----

 

SE of UK certainly appears to get high winds as the gradient is strong initially. Gales in the Channel.

 

Now note the squeeze over northern France, Benelux, but more importantly, check out the tight isobars west of Ireland. That's hurricane force without a doubt.

 

Then it's the turn of NI, SW/Central Scotland, northern England to experience storm/hurricane gust winds. From an IMBY perspective looks like I'm in deep do-do along with loads more.

 

Midnight, Xmas Eve and the storm is still raging over Scotland.

 

What joyous festive news you bring us lol

[Mokidugway]

Still no met warnings for northwest, considering projected winds of 65 mph plus !!...

[Buriedundersnow]

What's with the over-fascination with St Jude's storm?

 

Shouldn't people be comparing this system to the Braer storm?

 

they must think we don't get storms up here and there only reserved for down south

[Liam J]

NAE 18z run rolling out, 80mph+ mean wind speeds off the Irish Coast!!

 

Exceptional.

Edited December 22, 2013 by Liam J

[knightrider]

Still no met warnings for northwest, considering projected winds of 65 mph plus !!...

Very odd but yet again perhaps their in the process of updating their warnings and will include NW in the next issuing.

[P-M]

Can someone more knowledgeable please answer what kind of wind speeds are projected for the NE of England - I know this is an IMBY request and sorry for the question but, there are numerous sites which have the NE (and other areas) affected by severe gales - but the Meto are having none of it.

 

Realistically speaking are we just looking at a normal winter storm here or something more?

[snow1975]

probably, but I meant regarding deepness, ie circa 920mb is comparable with the Braer storm

was it no the storm after the Braer storm, the one that brough the blizzards to Scotland on the 11/12th January 1993; it had min pressure of 914mbar?

Edited December 22, 2013 by snow1975

[Long haul to mild]

they must think we don't get storms up here and there only reserved for down south

I'm know you generally get much worse storms than us down here but in order to get a handle on tomorrow, we can only compare to things we have experienced, hence all the St Jude talk!

[knightrider]

they must think we don't get storms up here and there only reserved for down south

Lol in reality you Scots get them all the time and are a hardy bunch us Southern softies don't get exceptional storms too often which is why more of a fuss is made by the media etc..when we are expected to take a direct hit!

[NickR]

Can someone more knowledgeable please answer what kind of wind speeds are projected for the NE of England - I know this is an IMBY request and sorry for the question but, there are numerous sites which have the NE (and other areas) affected by severe gales - but the Meto are having none of it.

 

Realistically speaking are we just looking at a normal winter storm here or something more?

24th looks worse for us on the 18z. Gusts of 60-65mph from about 1 to 8pm.

[pip22]

Still no met warnings for northwest, considering projected winds of 65 mph plus !!...

They won't put up weather warnings up because were used to it. Were been battered by more storms than the south recently. It makes sense they put up the warnings only for the softie southerners.

Edited December 22, 2013 by pip22

[Liam J]

27th storm sporting even tighter isobars on this run! 

 

[bobbydog]

This could be quite concerning for some caught in the heavy/torrential rain tomorrow. Some serious problems likely!http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/142151.aspx 

 

a bit of flooding on the roads could work to my advantage tomorrow, might keep some of my rival xmas shoppers away.

 

a little bit of water won't stop the best of british.....

 

 

 

(thats me doing a river crossing)

[knightrider]

Can someone more knowledgeable please answer what kind of wind speeds are projected for the NE of England - I know this is an IMBY request and sorry for the question but, there are numerous sites which have the NE (and other areas) affected by severe gales - but the Meto are having none of it.

 

Realistically speaking are we just looking at a normal winter storm here or something more?

Think it'll be a lot worse if you where near the North West coast as apposed to the north east, hopefully the winds will loose some of their sting over the mainland land mass.

[Buriedundersnow]

was it no the storm after the Braer storm, the one that brough the blizzards to Scotland on the 11/12th January 1993; it had min pressure of 914mbar?