Model Output Discussion 19th January 2014-18z onwards.

[fergieweather]

 

Thursday could be interesting!Higher routes across the north in particular could get a suprise snowfall out of this.First taste of winter?

There's nothing 'surprising' about it, however... it's January; the WBFL is down to 400m... nought unusual!

[andymusic]

Thursday could be interesting!

Higher routes across the north in particular could get a suprise snowfall out of this.

First taste of winter?

 

even potential for a little down south

 

[UV-RAY]

In general terms there has been very little change to the met office outlook apart from a weak signal for high pressure to eventually build across the south so where does that leave us with a pattern change? I think the models so far today are showing more wintry potential than yesterday, especially the 12z output last night which pushed the cold further east but once again there has hardly been any movement from the mo with the type of disturbed pattern we had through dec and early this month being the form horse, so i'm assuming that mogreps is not showing anything significant in terms of snow & ice for the next 2-4 weeks.

Indeed Frosty I still fail to see the optimism of others for a cold spell, snaps here and there yes, but the main theme of a mobile Westerly regime in the longer term remains the favourite, unless there are any favourable developments regarding the Strat.

[Barking_Mad]

 There's nothing 'surprising' about it, however... it's January; the WBFL is down to 400m... nought unusual!

 

@Fergieweather - Much chance those levels will fall further Ian?

[frosty ground]

The GFS 12Z Run has shifted things further east again.........

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

 There's nothing 'surprising' about it, however... it's January; the WBFL is down to 400m... nought unusual!

Will be suprising if one watched the latest Beeb forecast ian!

[gottolovethisweather]

 

even potential for a little down south

 

 

A day earlier than I anticipated too. Now let's see what the consensus is for post Sunday's surface feature.

[Downpour]

 There's nothing 'surprising' about it, however... it's January; the WBFL is down to 400m... nought unusual!

Surprising for the ten or so people in the UK who live above 1,200ft (and don't watch local forecasts) I guess. 

[gottolovethisweather]

Will be suprising if one watched the latest Beeb forecast ian!

 

It might well surprise the wildlife as well, after becoming lulled into a false sense of security. There's still some chance this East meets West scenario might run and run, hopefully for a while longer or at least come back for more into February.

 

This potential snow risk coming to our shores within a 54 hour timeframe.

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Downpour]

A day earlier than I anticipated too. Now let's see what the consensus is for post Sunday's surface feature.

That chart has snow in London at rush hour on Thursday evening.

 

Highly unlikely IMO – but I hope I am wrong. 

[Frosty.]

Indeed Frosty I still fail to see the optimism of others for a cold spell, snaps here and there yes, but the main theme of a mobile Westerly regime in the longer term remains the favourite, unless there are any favourable developments regarding the Strat.

Hi SI, yes I was hoping for a wintry upgrade considering the increasing potential for snow and ice from the 00z & 06z output, and especially the wintry looking GEFS 00Z / 06Z mean which are the the most wintry looking charts since last spring so there is clearly something different with their data compared to our freebie models.

[andymusic]

That chart has snow in London at rush hour on Thursday evening.

 

Highly unlikely IMO – but I hope I am wrong. 

cold uppers coming in from the west

 

 

 

and then the 26th

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by andymusic

[karyo]

Disappointing to see the 12z shifting the pattern slightly further east again.

Anyway, let's see what happens further down the line.

Karyo

[Bobby]

That chart has snow in London at rush hour on Thursday evening.

 

Highly unlikely IMO – but I hope I am wrong. 

 

The high-res shows things more realistically... don't get your hopes up I'd say, only high ground in the N likely to see snow settling, perhaps some wintriness down to lower levels here and there. Perhaps the mountains of Wales too.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by Bobby

[ukpaul]

Block pushes things further west once more, keeping those darker blues away from the pole and potentially aiding matters to to the south and west of Greenland, the 27th to 30th or so has been looking more and more interesting as the last week or so has worn on.

 

EDIT: Maybe too far west so the incoming low fills out before it gets to us.

Edited January 21, 2014 by ukpaul

[gottolovethisweather]

Disappointing to see the 12z shifting the pattern slightly further east again.Anyway, let's see what happens further down the line.Karyo

 

Yes clearly not EPIC winter charts, but snow (largely transient) for some on Wednesday, Thursday into Friday and then Sunday is hardly bad, given the state of what has passed.

[Panayiotis]

Block over Europe much stronger on this run and this low on Sunday bumps up to it and stalls but it manages to get the rain past the UK , which is then followed by a very cold NW with wintry showers. If the block over Europe can hold  it will give enough time for the Azores to ridge northwards into Greenland:

Edited January 21, 2014 by Panayiotis

[Duane S.]

??Am I viewing the same run here? Two knee-jerk comments already warning of a shift east. I am struggling (without splitting hairs) to see it myself. All I can see is a stronger block to the east...

[The Post-modern Winter]

The high-res shows things more realistically... don't get your hopes up I'd say, only high ground in the N likely to see snow settling, perhaps some wintriness down to lower levels here and there. Perhaps the mountains of Wales too.

 

 

Thanks for posting this Bobby. Really cheered me up as I look in line to see something.

[chionomaniac]

Disappointing to see the 12z shifting the pattern slightly further east again.Anyway, let's see what happens further down the line.Karyo

II think that the negative tilt of the Atlantic low hitting the stronger Scandi block is far better in this run at T=132 - but not a lot in it otherwise..

[Team Jo]

Please consider if your one line comment is meaningful, informative and civil before posting it to the other 516 users that are online at the moment.....

 

Thanks!

[karyo]

Sorry can't reply to posts from my work computer for some strange reason.

In reply to Chiono, the high to the northeast is better in this run but the Atlantic low takes too long to sink and by 130 hours it get's joined by the other low that exits Canada.

It would be better if the two lows stayed seperate.

Karyo

[fergieweather]

 

II think that the negative tilt of the Atlantic low hitting the stronger Scandi block is far better in this run at T=132 - but not a lot in it otherwise..

At present, the more progressive solutions running the low faster to SE are preferred (GFS not favoured by Exeter on this one), but 12z EC will be instructive on this issue. Either way, looking grim re rainfall amounts Sunday, let alone possible wind issues, should they emerge as threatening.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Hmmm bit of a dogs dinner gfs12z.

The azores high wants to pull west but that PV energy is just producing jet streak after jet streak and flattening everything out before we can get the retrogression needed to break out of this horrible cycle.

So frustrating!

[gottolovethisweather]

Further to my previous posting here concerning Sunday's shenanigans.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79144-model-output-discussion-19th-january-2014-18z-onwards/?p=2902362

 

 

This is the GFS 12z's reaction to our state of affairs come Sunday showing the snow risk which extends into Monday, albeit largely a west based event by then, but most certainly an interesting event just about within the reliable timeframe now.

 

 

Edited January 21, 2014 by gottolovethisweather