E.N.S.O. Discussion

[BornFromTheVoid]

That's true although the melt in late spring will probably make ours look more defined.

 

...

 

One thing i have noticed is that our ENSO/QBO cycles seem to be off. Historically El Nino tends to occur with a +QBO and visa versa but we've had many mismatches since 2009.

 

Perhaps you haven't seen the new study, but the Pacific trade winds have been at record strong level over the last decade or so. I'd say this has thrown some things out of whack, including the ENSO.

 

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2106.html

 

 

 

A review of the article here http://phys.org/news/2014-02-pacific-stall-global-surface-warmingfor.html#jCp

[BornFromTheVoid]

The PDO data for January is out and, at a value of +0.3, it's the most positive since May 2010. The Autumn 2009 to Spring 2010 was the last El Nino event too.

 

 

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

[summer blizzard]

The PDO data for January is out and, at a value of +0.3, it's the most positive since May 2010. The Autumn 2009 to Spring 2010 was the last El Nino event too.

 

 

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

Interesting, really shows how pitiful recent +PDO events have been.

 

Also notable is that GLAAM also went marginally positive.

 

SOI and MEI yet to respond though.

 

.........

 

With your chart prowess is there any way that you can construct a chart whereby you take the sea surface temperature anomaly today and then minus the anomalies from 3 months ago to create a trend map of sorts so we can see just how large the warming has been rather than just by watching it.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Interesting, really shows how pitiful recent +PDO events have been.

 

Also notable is that GLAAM also went marginally positive.

 

SOI and MEI yet to respond though.

 

.........

 

With your chart prowess is there any way that you can construct a chart whereby you take the sea surface temperature anomaly today and then minus the anomalies from 3 months ago to create a trend map of sorts so we can see just how large the warming has been rather than just by watching it.

 

Do you mean SSTAs for ENSO? I could do it with the Nino 3.4 region anomalies, they're often used to define El Nino and La Nina events.

[summer blizzard]

Do you mean SSTAs for ENSO? I could do it with the Nino 3.4 region anomalies, they're often used to define El Nino and La Nina events.

 

Across the whole pacific if possible.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Quite a change from the 7th to the 14th for the ENSO region.

 

 

The official weekly update on Monday evening will be interesting.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Across the whole pacific if possible.

 

14th Feb 2014 minus 14th Nov 2013

[summer blizzard]

14th Feb 2014 minus 14th Nov 2013

 

14th Feb 2014 minus 14th Nov 2013

 

Movement towards a +PDO is notable.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest ENSO update here

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

It seems like we're seeing the beginning of the largest eastward propagating (downwelling) kelvin wave in the last year, with quite an increase in upper ocean heat content.

 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

They are now mentioning a May/June/July start to the Nino event from the Aug/sept date we saw last month? Things are starting to look like we should expect a Nino to at least form in the mid section of the year?

 

After that who knows? If past moves toward Nino have been quashed by the over strong Trades then will they not mess with this event or are we also looking at the end of this IPO phase/PDO phase and a full return back to warming and Nino predominance?

[BornFromTheVoid]

The warming is spreading west.

 

Change from 8th to 14th of Feb ..  :  .. Change from 8th to 17th of Feb

 

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2635

 

More folk now seeing the near imminent development of a large Nino. from the quick rush through I've done it appears we need be wary of any strong cyclones near the equator over the coming months as this could help keep the westerly wind bursts on track and strengthen the nino ( as the cat 5 typhoon did to the 97' nino).

 

Maybe time for me to pay a little more attention to the hurricane thread for a few months?

[Vorticity0123]

 

 

More folk now seeing the near imminent development of a large Nino. from the quick rush through I've done it appears we need be wary of any strong cyclones near the equator over the coming months as this could help keep the westerly wind bursts on track and strengthen the nino ( as the cat 5 typhoon did to the 97' nino).

 

Maybe time for me to pay a little more attention to the hurricane thread for a few months?

 

It seems like a pair of strong cyclones is forecast to develop in the Western Pacific and Southern Pacific, respectively. The GFS has been hinting at this option for quite some time now (with varying intensities). The forecast charts from the GFS can be seen below:

 

GFS T90 (12Z)

 

The two cyclones that are forecast to develop are near 10N 140E (the one east of the Philippines), while the other one is near 15S 180E (near the dateline, close to Fiji).

 

At T162, the West-Pacific cyclone is still there:

GFS T162 (12Z)

 

Note that the cyclone is still forecast to be quite strong (though a high degree of uncertainty remains of course). Moreover, a new cyclone can be seen just to the east of Australia at T162, but it is too early to tell wheather this cyclone will develop or not.

 

To see the other cyclone mentioned at the first chart, another map (of the eastern Pacific) has to be displayed:

GFS T162 (12Z) 

 

The cyclone can be seen recurving into the westerlies, after moving generally eastward during the first period of its existence. Note that this timeframe (T162) contains high levels of uncertainty, and therefore it shouldn't be used as a real forecast.

 

To solidify the statements above, the CPC (climate prediction center) pointed out (about the possible tropical cyclones):

 

 

 

Conditions including warmer-than-normal SSTs are favorable for tropical cyclone development across the west and south-central Pacific. As of February 25, two disturbances are located near 10S/150E in the West Pacific and near the Date Line in the South Pacific. Given the background state, forecast confidence is high that both of these disturbances become tropical cyclones during Week-1. 

 

The graphical output of tropical cyclone formation potential (along with rainfall/temperatures) from the CPC can be seen below:

 

 

Concluding, it seems like a pair of potent tropical cyclones will develop in the near future which could enhance the near-Equatorial Westerlies in the short term. Wheather they will become strong enough to enhance the winds enough to have an impact on a possible El Nino, or wheather they are not too far from the equator, remains to be seen. It will be interesting to see how the tropical cyclones and resulting effects on a possible El Nino will develop.

 

EDIT: The JTWC has assessed both cyclones of having a 'medium' chance to develop within the next 48 hours.

 

 

 

Sources:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsfaxsem.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwweb.txt

Edited February 25, 2014 by Vorticity0123

[BornFromTheVoid]

The weekly ENSO update showing the upper ocean heat content continuing to rocket, with that large warm pool expanding, strengthening and moving eastward.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Further rapid increase in the upper ocean heat content associated with the strengthening warm pool.

 

 

 

 

Those warm anomalies are really beginning to push toward the surface in the eastern tropical Pacific

 

[knocker]

NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch for the summer and fall of 2014, giving a 50% chance that an El Niño event will occur. The March 6 El Niño discussion from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center noted that "While all models predict warming in the tropical Pacific, there is considerable uncertainty as to whether El Niño will develop during the summer or fall. If westerly winds continue to emerge in the western equatorial Pacific, the development of El Niño would become more likely. However, the lower forecast skill during the spring and overall propensity for cooler conditions over the last decade still justify significant probabilities for ENSO-neutral. The consensus forecast is for ENSO-neutral to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall."

None of the El Niño models predict La Niña conditions for peak hurricane season, August-September-October 2014, and 8 of 18 predict El Niño conditions. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C above average or warmer for three consecutive months for an El Niño episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were -0.6°C from average as of March 3, and have been +0.1 to -0.7°C from average since April 1, 2013. El Niño conditions tend to make quieter than average Atlantic hurricane seasons, due to an increase in upper-level winds that create strong wind shear over the Tropical Atlantic.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2642

[knocker]

El Nino Warning System Goes Dark Just When Scientists Need It Most

http://mashable.com/2014/03/06/buoy-array-el-nino-forecasting/

[Gray-Wolf]

We're told that the Argo Buoys , in the Nino Regions, will be able to give us the data that the failed array used to.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like the Nino 1 region (eastern ENSO area) is beginning to warm. That cold pool is beginning to get squeezed it seems.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I think we now need to watch cyclone development either side of the equator to see if we can have westerly wind bursts drive the sub surface warmth east faster?  Any 'help' given by such bursts could mean the difference between weak Nino conditions and Super Nino formation. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Feb's PDO value is another positive?

 

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

 

And the cyclone driving the westerly burst over the dateline. With MJO expected ( 17th/25th) to also push the kelvin wave are we now seeing the start of Nino formation?

[knocker]

Warming tropical Pacific increases chance of El Niño from winter

 

Issued on Tuesday 11 March 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models showing temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the austral winter.

 

Recent observations indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is occurring. The tropical Pacific Ocean sub-surface has warmed substantially over the past few weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the sea surface in the coming months. A recent burst of westerly winds over the far western Pacific is the strongest seen since at least 2009 – the last time an El Niño developed.

 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Edited March 13, 2014 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

It looks as though we are just on the cusp of El Nino development now. The strong kelvin wave has carried warm water across the tropical Pacific subsurface and now up into the eastern tropical Pacific. As this warm anomaly breaks the surface, we could see some rapid warming towards an El Nino and disruption of the Walker circulation over the next few weeks.

 

 

 

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Nothing much has changed so far, we've seen warming but not enough to remove the cold anomalies completely yet and we still have no idea how strong any potential Nino will be.

Edited March 20, 2014 by reef
Quoted post removed

[Gray-Wolf]

http://mashable.com/2014/03/19/intense-el-nino-maybe/

 

"Roundy said the chances of an unusually strong El Niño event “Are much higher than average, it’s difficult to put a kind of probability of it … I’ve suggested somewhere around 80%â€

“The conditions of the Pacific ocean right now are as favorable for a major event as they were in march of 1997. That’s no major guarantee that a major event develops but clearly it would increase the likelihood of a major event occurring,†Roundy says."

Starting to look like a major nino is just around the corner?