Scotland & The Far North Of England Regional Weather Chat

[Ravelin]

Cool start to the day here, around 3C, but no frost. If the forecast is correct the current sheet of cloud should disappear to leave us with a clear and calm evening. Perfect for the fireworks display in the village (strangely, I can't  remember a 5th Nov fireworks display I've attended ever being hampered by the weather).

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

First scrape of the windscreen the morn.

 

Was 2 C when I left the house.

[West Highland Storm]

Beautiful clear blue sky in Fort William Mrs WHS had to find her scraper this morning the first time each winter search +

[A Winter's Tale]

Beautiful clear and sunny November's day and things starting to look a lot more wintry with a lower and weaker sun in the southern sky. Should be a chilly night for Bonfire's night for something like the third or fourth year in a row.

[NUT]

Time for a new thread maybe? This one is 76 pages long now

 

Here today what a lovely day. Dawn to dusk clear skies. OK not very warm at 9 degrees but very acceptable (Not as balmy as last week when I was down south phew friday was a scorcher)!

[NorthernRab]

Just at touch above -1'C here, clear skies with a large moon halo, perfect night for the fireworks!

[Hawesy]

Evening all. A balmy 4.8c here on the Fife Riviera. I'm not expecting an air frost here tonight, it's a bit early, more typically our first air frost is late Nov or early Dec. Up the road at Leuchars its 0c already so you can see the difference my exposed coastal location makes.

By way of reference Leuchars averages 58 air frosts per annum. I would suggest we normally get around 20-25.

[Northernlights]

Clear night here to and 1.8c. Very showery this morning with a hail shower mixed in.Ground very wet now.Maximumof 6c today

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Ok, first time I've been at my desk / still awake and witnessed below zero oot for this winter.

 

-0.6 °C and falling.

[Ravelin]

Lovely night for the fireworks as expected. Cool, clear and almost a full moon. Temp now sitting at -0.4C.

Edited November 5, 2014 by Ravelin

[A Winter's Tale]

Perfect night fir fireworks. Not a breath of wind, a cloudless evening with a bright moon and very cold with the temperature hovering around freezing whilst smoke shrouds the streets.

[NorthernRab]

Temperature has quickly risen to 2.4'c with a slight wind. boo! Lovely evening though.

[Ravelin]

Temperature has quickly risen to 2.4'c with a slight wind. boo!

It hit an overnight low of -1.1C here but a breezy 6.8C by the time I got up at 7:30. So no frost to be seen unfortunately.

Edited November 6, 2014 by Ravelin

[Jo Farrow]

No frost for me in E.Lothian but the wind and rain are kicking in. There'll be plenty of leaves to clear up

[Jo Farrow]

The rain, in Spain, falls mostly on the Scotland:

 

6th Nov WRF-NMM 00z +48hrs PrecipAccum.png

 

The chart is for the next 48hrs rainfall accumulation. Huge totals across some parts, I think the SW will bear the brunt. I'm surprised to see an orange warning for NI, this must be for a large amount of rain falling in a short period of time, and I can't really distinguish much difference between the rainfall rates in NI and in the SW of Scotland. Obviously the Met-O know better than I do (I'm not being sarcastic, for a change ).

 

Edit: Looking at the Euro4 precip accumulation chart, Arran and parts of central Scotland take a big slosh of rain too:

 

6th Nov Euro4 00z +48hrs PrecipAccum.gif

 

Again, the total rainfall for NI doesn't look too bad, so time will tell what happens

The scotland amber zone is so specific that it must be following SEPA warning areas, NI still could get heavy and persistent rain this evening off the cold front and the MO do say, the heaviest rain could be away from highlighted " sensitive areas" so perhaps it is the condiitons already on the ground prompting this Amber, just in case. Those conditions are hard  to find for N.Ireland on the web, easier for the day in hand on the SEPA website. But I wish SEPA would do the 3 day ahead charts that Environment agency put out for England and Wales. 

[Glaswegianblizzard]

It's maybe because the heavier rain in NI is going to fall on more populous areas Catch. Looks like Belfast is predicted to get 50mm.

[SW Saltire]

The rain, in Spain, falls mostly on the Scotland:

6th Nov WRF-NMM 00z +48hrs PrecipAccum.png

The chart is for the next 48hrs rainfall accumulation. Huge totals across some parts, I think the SW will bear the brunt. I'm surprised to see an orange warning for NI, this must be for a large amount of rain falling in a short period of time, and I can't really distinguish much difference between the rainfall rates in NI and in the SW of Scotland. Obviously the Met-O know better than I do

Edit: Looking at the Euro4 precip accumulation chart, Arran and parts of central Scotland take a big slosh of rain too:

6th Nov Euro4 00z +48hrs PrecipAccum.gif

Again, the total rainfall for NI doesn't look too bad, so time will tell what happens

I'm glad I'm in Stirling today and not back home. I can imagine how bad a day it will be.

Patchy rain here at a chilly 8.4c.

As noted above, perhaps it's due to regional circumstances.

For example, the river Nith in Dumfries floods very frequently. At least once a year, in bad years such as 2007 and 2012 (very bad summers) then it floods 3 -5 times with 1-2 very significant events which flood right up the high street and completely shut off the road.

The worst flooding was last January. The river flooded way further north and all the way down, wiping out several farms and vast swathes of good ground.

Just at a glance, it looks highly unlikely to me that the river would flood at Stirling bridge, whereas, the Nith is tidal and therefore high tide and a little rain and the river is less than 1 metre off the top...

Edited November 6, 2014 by SW Saltire

[NUT]

All the warning area's............seems we just outside any warning zone's (not been all that bad a day to be fair)

[LomondSnowstorm]

Well, that escalated quickly...

[Northernlights]

Well, that escalated quickly...

Just give me 2 weeks of fairly mild weather till then and we should be ploughed up and a store of neeps up.

 

Various folk who know my love of the weather have asked me about the winter and all I  have said is the door is open to cold should it wish to come in unlike last winter. Above shows it barging in.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Northernlights

[NorthernRab]

That very cold air being dragged across from our Scandinavian neighbours over a relatively warm North Sea would result in some very hefty snow showers!

Love it when Norway and Scotland make a snow baby. It's been years!

[LomondSnowstorm]

That very cold air being dragged across from our Scandinavian neighbours over a relatively warm North Sea would result in some very hefty snow showers!

Love it when Norway and Scotland make a snow baby. It's been years!

Just a week or so under 4 days since our last November easterly:

 

 

So far, we've got: 2nd lowest OPI, 2nd highest SAI, QBO which is about as 'easterly' as it gets, Arctic Oscillation set to tank to sub -3 (which is pretty ridiculous for November), way above average wave 1 strat activity and hints that the stratospheric vortex (as well as the tropospheric one for different reasons) is going to split. If Carlsberg did winter build ups... 

[Ravelin]

Yeah well the cold can't come too soon in my books, but I'm trying not to get excited even after reading the model thread last night. We've been through it all before, with things looking good 2 weeks out but coming to nothing. At least this time I've got my new ski helmet to help protect me from flying toys. The background signals do look so good though that it's difficult to see how we could get through the coming winter without a decent cold spell.

 

In the meantime....grey, wet, breezy and thoroughly miserable morning here. Just before I left the house at around 8am it was 10.1C with 4.7mm of rain since midnight.

Edited November 7, 2014 by Ravelin

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Just a week or so under 4 days since our last November easterly:

 

 

 

So far, we've got: 2nd lowest OPI, 2nd highest SAI, QBO which is about as 'easterly' as it gets, Arctic Oscillation set to tank to sub -3 (which is pretty ridiculous for November), way above average wave 1 strat activity and hints that the stratospheric vortex (as well as the tropospheric one for different reasons) is going to split. If Carlsberg did winter build ups... 

 

HP to the N at the end of the 00z ECM.

 

PV really all over the place with no proper development.

 

Edited November 7, 2014 by scottish skier

[mardatha]

I don't understand a single word yer all saying but I'm gettin excited anyway   I hope it means - although last night in this hoose was wild  and bloody baltic. Has calmed down now and is on 11C.

Edited November 7, 2014 by mardatha