Convective / storm Discussion - 22nd May 2014 onwards

[Supacell]

Any thundery activity that was on that front has died out now. No forecast from Estofex but BBC still think there will be thunderstorms around this afternoon, with the East Midlands possibly a focal point. I will believe that when I see it, certainly for here.

 

Sorry, the last few days around here have just got me down. Considering the amount of thunderstorms around this past week you would have thought I would have seen at least one. Then again, Derby has done very well over the last couple of years so perhaps it's the turn of Derby to develop a storm shield where other shields are broken - fair's fair I suppose.

[William Grimsley]

Any thundery activity that was on that front has died out now. No forecast from Estofex but BBC still think there will be thunderstorms around this afternoon, with the East Midlands possibly a focal point. I will believe that when I see it, certainly for here.

 

Sorry, the last few days around here have just got me down. Considering the amount of thunderstorms around this past week you would have thought I would have seen at least one. Then again, Derby has done very well over the last couple of years so perhaps it's the turn of Derby to develop a storm shield where other shields are broken - fair's fair I suppose.

East Midlands as the focal point? I thought my area was at worst risk today?

[Supacell]

East Midlands as the focal point? I thought my area was at worst risk today?

 

My words were East Midlands possibly "A" focal point not "the", there is a subtle difference

 

i.e. there looks to be a number of focal points of which my area is one of them (on the BBC forecasts).

Edited May 24, 2014 by Supacell

[Darren Bown]

I think most of England and Wales Wales away from East Anglia and the east of Brighton are at risk today.

[William Grimsley]

My words were East Midlands possibly "A" focal point not "the", there is a subtle difference

 

i.e. there looks to be a number of focal points of which my area is one of them (on the BBC forecasts).

Ok, I didn't really know the meaning but thought you meant that was the only place. Sorry. LOL

Edited May 24, 2014 by William Grimsley

[Mapantz]

Some pretty heavy rain right now, but I can see the edge of it to the east, and it's clear. The earlier that sunshine appears, the better.

[William Grimsley]

I have to say the showers infront of the band of rain are some of the slowest I've seen.

[TEITS]

Looks like E Midlands and the extreme W parts of E Anglia could be the prime spot for storms today. Also appears any storms will last for much of the evening before dying out in the early hrs of tomorrow morning.

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/05/24/basis00/ukuk/prec/14052415_2400.gif

[Mapantz]

Looks like E Midlands and the extreme W parts of E Anglia could be the prime spot for storms today. Also appears any storms will last for much of the evening before dying out in the early hrs of tomorrow morning.http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2014/05/24/basis00/ukuk/prec/14052415_2400.gif

You could probably adjust that further West, it still shows that finger of rain over Dorset at midday, yet it has already cleared through here. The forecasts are quite a way out from what's actually appearing on the radar at the moment. Edited May 24, 2014 by Mapantz

[William Grimsley]

I did and still do have a feeling that this band of rain would weaken and that most of our activity today with come from convective showers.

You could probably adjust that further West, it stillcshows that finger of rain over Dorset at midday, yet it has already cleared through here. The forecasts are quite a way out from what's actually appearing on the radar at the moment.

That's what I thought.

[Lauren]

I'm supposed to be doing It's A Knockout at Kempton Park today. This could be fun!

[TEITS]

You could probably adjust that further West, it still shows that finger of rain over Dorset at midday, yet it has already cleared through here. The forecasts are quite a way out from what's actually appearing on the radar at the moment.

Looking at the radar and the chart I posted it appears to be spot on in my opinion for 9am.

Edited May 24, 2014 by TEITS

[William Grimsley]

Looking at the radar and the chart I posted it appears to be spot on in my opinion for 9am.

Can't see any lightning. There's too much cloud cover.

[Harry]

I think most of England and Wales Wales away from East Anglia and the east of Brighton are at risk today.

Hmm...charts suggest moderate instability and precip across the Home Counties including the south east corner. Wouldn't rule us out entirely just yet

[William Grimsley]

Well, I'm beginning to wonder if I'll actually get even a downpour, today.

[shaky]

You could probably adjust that further West, it still shows that finger of rain over Dorset at midday, yet it has already cleared through here. The forecasts are quite a way out from what's actually appearing on the radar at the moment.

does that mean everything's further west right now?

[Dami]

Morning all, got woken up by rain and next doors noisy broken guttering at around 6:15am.   No thunder though. Met office has the kiss of death thunder symbol by my area for Monday. So Monday will be hot and sunny y'all.

[Mapantz]

does that mean everything's further west right now?

I wouldn't say everything, TEITS doesn't agree with me, but the southern part of the rainfall doesn't match up, forecasts and models put me under rain until midday, as I said in my previous post, it cleared over half an hour ago, and the sun is out.

[ancientsolar]

There's a thunderstorm just North of Norwich

[Muffelchen]

There's a thunderstorm just North of Norwich

That band has just become electrified, according NW radar. There are two other storms associated with the band but they are in the N Sea, but headed towards Northumbria (eventually). There is also a wadge of heavy returns around The Wash. I wonder if this will become electrified too?

 

If it does then we are all in the game. Once again, as I have stated on these fora before, once one shower becomes electrified, the other ones around it do too. Should be an interesting few hours ahead if this happens.

[TEITS]

Personally im not expecting much until this band of rain clears. I then expect storms to break out a few hrs after the band of cloud has cleared. This is why I don't expect much in the way of storms for the W/SW. These areas are more at risk from just heavy downpours.

[Supacell]

That is quite an embedded thunderstorm on that north Norfolk coast. If it can survive then it would likely go out to sea and come back in around the east coast of the Humber. The band seems to fizzle as it heads towards Derby though for some reason.

[alibabba]

Is torrential rain in skeggy my garden is flooded has been like this for the last hour listening out for any thunder

[vladthemert]

overcast with steady rain nothing heavy here..

 

Well annoyed weather station had crash day lost all yesterday data seems it dont overwrite old data just sulks when full .

[Supacell]

The sun is out in Derby.