Storm and Convective Discussion 23rd June Onwards

[Mokidugway]

Towers going up now much more organised than yesterday !......

[Lauren]

Convection happening towards London way but I don't think anything is forecast to happen.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Going dark to the North !!

[alr1970]

Shower approaching Manchester from the north. Not very intense on the radar but I suppose it might intensify over the urban heat island.

[NUT]

Some sferics in the highlands I think. I wonder if it could push down here hm

[Mokidugway]

Thunder heard ,distant though sky quite stormy looking !!.......

[Jonathan Lang]

Lots of tall dark clouds developing suddenly.

[Weather-history]

Today's time lapse

[Mokidugway]

Well that was a one hit wonder now dissipating , good to see though !!..

[Greeny]

Not going into too much detail just general sb cape + li starting from the weekend.

Friday is showing chance of potent storms on the continent.

Saturday currently showing Ireland and Scotland.

Sunday Scotland.

Monday showing more widespread.

Same with Tuesday but upgraded.

Wednesday even showing some. I think a good chance for a few days of more chances.

Edited July 1, 2014 by Greenday

[Speedway Slider]

This is the torrential 15 minute  downpour that hit Leicester last (Tuesday) evening around 18:30

As far as I know it didn't produce anything electrical, but it was a surprise as you can see from the attached screenshots that it was pretty isolated.. Firstly, did this rogue shower hit anyone else after it battered Leicester as it travelled south - east, did it strengthen, weaken, or produce any hail, lightning or funnel? My internet went off for around an hour so could not check visually...... This dumped enough water to waterlog any Speedway in its path..... 

[vladthemert]

been very quiet here for few days only note was the other tuesday we got torrential outburst at 11am.   Despite models talking 20mm rainfall its been dry since.  We did have nice storm develop moved south without doing anything

[Spikecollie]

Sky now clouded up and can see towers going up to west in distance through a break in clouds that way....

It was an amazing cloudscape coming back yesterday from Paris. TCU all over the place from the south Midlands northward. I was a generous bunny and gave a young couple the chance to sit together and ended up with an aisle seat, but I could still see out nicely and it was very sculptural...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Seen as this thread has become as dead as a dodo, why not review that 'mothership armageddon' storm over W Germany again! 

 

[Greeny]

Not going into too much detail just general sb cape + li starting from the weekend.

Friday is showing chance of potent storms on the continent.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifviewimage-10.png

Saturday currently showing Ireland and Scotland.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifviewimage-20.png

Sunday Scotland.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifviewimage-25.png

Monday showing more widespread.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifviewimage-14.png

Same with Tuesday but upgraded.

http:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifviewimage-17.pnghttp:////f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_images/tctc91_simplify/attachicon.gifviewimage-24.png

Wednesday even showing some. I think a good chance for a few days of more chances.

 

Re-checking the models since yesterday only sbcape and li for now. Friday looks good still along the continent. Maybe it could affect the Southeast and East Anglia as the model stands..

 

 

Saturday looks like a bit of an upgrade for Ireland and Scotland..

 

Now Sunday has definitely upgraded. Looks a bit beefy according to this outlook and widespread..

 

 

Monday still has it's potential..

 

 

However from Tuesday it has downgraded a lot..

 

 

The models speak for themselves however I'm speaking from an amateurs perspective

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

That is pretty surreal..sheer amount of lighting and that close strike near the start! No doubting that's one heck of a storm..

Did you watch it live on the Dusseldorf cam lol? It knocked the cam out and shut the airport down. Was unreal !! Saw it on the Dortmund and Cologne cams too!! On Sat24 it looked atomic and it's upper outflow actually reached the east Anglia coast! Mental.

[vladthemert]

Thanks Greenday.  I wonder if we could see interaction from the continental storm to UK storm development feeding energy.  The gap the width of Wales looking meteox in places.

[Speedway Slider]

What's the lightning chances for Leicester on Saturday evening?

[StormChaseUK]

0

[poseidon]

From the Met Office today....

Outlook for Saturday to Monday:

Early rain clearing to leave brighter weather later Saturday. Then sunny spells with scattered, perhaps heavy and thundery, showers for Sunday and Monday. Less warm with temperatures near normal.

[Speedway Slider]

Even a brief suggestion of a Kent clipper tomorrow, risk remains low for a hefty shower to drift up from France. Wonder if it could make Leicester

Sarcasm is the lowest form of wit, unfortunately it's also the funniest!! 

[Greeny]

Thats interesting, GFS current run is highlighting an 'eye' in the storm potential over the continent.

Edit: a possible dryline or dryline circle in this case?

Edited July 4, 2014 by Greenday

[Generalelectrix]

Morning@all

 

@ Greenday: No, the dryline will be further south today, I expect it to extend from about Basle in Switzerland to Salzburg, Austria. This line will separate moist, unstable airmasses in the north from dry "foehn" air immidiately north of the alpine ridge. Strong foehn winds coming from the south are expected as of this afternoon as the low pressure area moves in from the west to southern Germany, creating a pressure gradient over the alpine region. I expect violent developments along this dryline over northern parts of  Switzerland, southern Germany right into Austria with large hail and strong wind gusts due to the effect of evaporative cooling in the dry airmasses!

As I am currently working there I will take off a bit earlier than usual this afternoon and position myself somewhere in the southern part of the Black forest, it will either be a corepunch for me or maybe some spectacular photos of isolated cells immidiately to my north, strobing away in the evening light. We shall see....

 

Will report back

 

Ralph

[Greeny]

Morning@all@ Greenday: No, the dryline will be further south today, I expect it to extend from about Basle in Switzerland to Salzburg, Austria. This line will separate moist, unstable airmasses in the north from dry "foehn" air immidiately north of the alpine ridge. Strong foehn winds coming from the south are expected as of this afternoon as the low pressure area moves in from the west to southern Germany, creating a pressure gradient over the alpine region. I expect violent developments along this dryline over northern parts of Switzerland, southern Germany right into Austria with large hail and strong wind gusts due to the effect of evaporative cooling in the dry airmasses!As I am currently working there I will take off a bit earlier than usual this afternoon and position myself somewhere in the southern part of the Black forest, it will either be a corepunch for me or maybe some spectacular photos of isolated cells immidiately to my north, strobing away in the evening light. We shall see....Will report backRalph

Ah ok thanks buddy, I did look at the dewpoints and there was not much of a drop in that area. Good luck, looking forward to your report! Edited July 4, 2014 by Greenday

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

N France getting usual storms, all heading NE as per flamin usual!