eastern pacific Major Hurricane/Super Typhoon Genevieve

[Somerset Squall]

Genevieve has begun the northward turn. The cyclone has lost cat 5 status but remains a powerful 125kt typhoon. The eye is still well defined, embedded in a circular central dense overcast. The convection in the overcast has become an little less deep however. Genevieve is expected to remain an intense system for a couple days yet before shear and cooler waters further north cause some fairly quick weakening in a few days.

[Somerset Squall]

Strong shear has affected Genevieve on the northward track today. The eye became cloud filled, and the central dense overcast began to stretch due to the shear. Winds are down to 95kts, cat 2. Just recently however, the eye looks like it has began to clear out again. Bottom line is however, that even stronger shear lies to the north so Genevieve will weaken at a quicker pace soon. In about 4 days, Genevieve is expected to become a remnant low as it recurves northeastwards out of the tropics.

[Somerset Squall]

Genevieve is gradually succumbing to the harsh environment it's in. Shear and dry air continue to erode the typhoon, and sea temperatures continue to decline on the northwesterly track. Winds are down to 70kts. Genevieve has lost a significant amount of convection today. With the cooler sea temperatures and dry air, it probably won't make a significant comeback, meaning the circulation should continue to spin down. Genevieve should get caught up in the mid-lattitude westerlies in a day or two and race northeastwards whilst dissipating. The long lived and tenacious Genevieve's life is almost over.

 

Track from UNISYS:

 

[Typhoon43]

Genevieve is now just a 40-knot tropical storm according to both JTWC and JMA. Both agencies forecast dissipation within 48 hours.

[Somerset Squall]

Genevieve has been downgraded to a remnant low by JTWC, but is still classified as a tropical depression by JMA. Genevieve's 18 day life is pretty much over. What an amazing system it was to track! Two comebacks from death then strengthen to a cat 5!! Reminds me of TC Gillian in March in the Australian basin, a cyclone which degnerated into a low twice before going on to become a cat 5 in it's third life, like Genevieve. Odd how we've had two systems in the same year do this. It's probably not a very common occurence.

Edited August 12, 2014 by Somerset Squall