iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[Gael_Force]

Absolutely stunning skyscapes - Whats with the stationary column of cloud on the far right of the cam?  Is this a result of the heat/steam from yesterdays eruption or is it orographic?

 

edit - in answer to my own Q, it's parted a bit now and I can see there are snow capped peaks below so I guess orographic.  not sure of my bearings, would these peaks be the flanks askja?

 

Here's a better screen capture from the VC blog - that's Askja with the double stack of cloud*. There is a lake in the centre of the caldera; combination of that plus orographic forcing, I would imagine.

 

* would these cloud forms be classed as lenticular - look a bit too bloated in shape for classic lenticulars.

 

[Gael_Force]

New update from IMO considers the likelihood of eruption of Bárðarbungu to be increasing.

 

http://www.ruv.is/frett/gos-i-bardarbungu-talid-liklegra-en-adur

 

First paragraph translation - it gets very mangled after that.

 

 

Eruption Bárðarbunga is now considered more likely than before. This was stated at a meeting of the Council of Coordination of scientists today. Seismic we Bárðarbunga is still very high, the highest has been 15 miles long area centered on the edge Dyngjujökuls.

[Rustynailer]

I think there might have just been a large 4-5 mag EQ at Askja.

Edited August 30, 2014 by Rustynailer

[If Wishes made Weather]

Interesting new update from Icelandic Met Office on their website noting the somewhat increased probability of an eruption of Bárðarbunga.  I have also noted something of an uptick in some of the 2-4 Hz tremor activity today from some of the stations. 

[Rustynailer]

Interesting new update from Icelandic Met Office on their website noting the somewhat increased probability of an eruption of Bárðarbunga.  I have also noted something of an uptick in some of the 2-4 Hz tremor activity today from some of the stations. 

Sods law says Bada erupts when we can't see it because of the approaching bad weather. I see the uptick you mentioned and agree.

[swebby]

Here's a better screen capture from the VC blog - that's Askja with the double stack of cloud*. There is a lake in the centre of the caldera; combination of that plus orographic forcing, I would imagine.

 

* would these cloud forms be classed as lenticular - look a bit too bloated in shape for classic lenticulars.

 

 

 

Cheers GF, good screen grab that.  I've got my bearings now from looking at the wind direction and using google earth with the info coming from #2 cam now its back up and running.  The web cams are on/near the northern edge of the ice cap (directly north of kverkijoll) and are looking west across the eruption site with the #2 cam panning from the dyngjujkoll glacier to askja.  Was difficult to work out where they were previously, what with the poor visibility and down time. Has anyone got the actual coordinates for them?

Some majestic images of the scenery from them today, i really do need to get to Iceland one day.

[john pike]

Update om met office site adds 4 options and the baraaobunga option was classed yesterday as low risk

Conclusions of the Scientific Advisory Board of the Icelandic Civil Protection:

Earthquake activity continues on a 15-km-long region of the dyke intrusion, extending both into the Dyngjujökull glacier and the region north of the ice margin. Earthquakes have not migrated northwards during the last two days. Seismicity remains high and, since midnight, about 700 earthquakes have been detected in the region.

The largest earthquakes since midnight include: (i) a magnitude 4.5 event on the northern side of the Bárðarbunga caldera at 02:35 UTC; (ii) a magnitude 4.2 earthquake in the same region at 06:18 UTC; and (iii) a magnitude 5.4 earthquake on the south-eastern edge of the Bárðarbunga caldera at 07:03 UTC. During the last two weeks, several earthquakes of similar size have occurred on the edge of the Bárðarbunga caldera. These earthquakes are interpreted as signs of stress changes in the region of the caldera.

Over 20 micro-earthquakes have been detected in the Askja region. It is thought that these earthquakes have occurred due to stress changes north of the dyke intrusion.

GPS measurements show continued horizontal movements north of Vatnajökull due to formation of the dyke intrusion on the northern edge of the ice-cap.

No unusual changes in the discharge or electrical conductivity of Jökulsá á Fjöllum have been detected. The same applies to other rivers draining from north-western Vatnajökull.

A sample of newly erupted lava was taken from Holuhraun yesterday; analysis is ongoing.

There are no indications that the intensity of the activity declining.

At this moment it is unclear how the situation will develop. However, four scenarios are considered most likely:

The migration of magma could stop, resulting in a gradual reduction in seismic activity and no further eruptions.

The dike could reach the Earth's surface north of Dyngjujökull causing another eruption, possibly on a new fissure. Such an eruption could include lava flow and (or) explosive activity.

The intrusion reaches the surface and an eruption occurs again where either the fissure is partly or entirely beneath Dyngjujökull. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.

An eruption in Bárðarbunga. The eruption could cause an outburst flood and possibly an explosive, ash-producing activity. In the event of a subglacial eruption, it is most likely that flooding would affect Jökulsá á Fjöllum. However it is not possible to exclude the following flood paths: Skjálfandafljót, Kaldakvísl, Skaftá and Grímsvötn.

http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/articles/nr/2947

[vladthemert]

looks like she angry and there was 5.3 Earthquake in the Atlantic ridge near spain .  What happens if eruption makes Iceland inhabitable. 

[The PIT]

looks like she angry and there was 5.3 Earthquake in the Atlantic ridge near spain .  What happens if eruption makes Iceland inhabitable. 

Unlikely but they will have to be evacuated which would be a mammoth task.

[Mapantz]

BBC:

An eruption near Iceland's Bardarbunga volcano that briefly threatened air travel has ended. Get the whole story: http://t.co/Xq3rphWEmx NP

[karyo]

looks like she angry and there was 5.3 Earthquake in the Atlantic ridge near spain .  What happens if eruption makes Iceland inhabitable. 

Let's chill a bit guys. Iceland was created by volcanic activity and the Icelandic people are very used to eruptions.

I think there might have just been a large 4-5 mag EQ at Askja.

It doesn't show here: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/

[vladthemert]

Unlikely but they will have to be evacuated which would be a mammoth task.

 

thanks indeed where would they go temporary.  Too be fair our town has long history with Icelandics through fishing industry.

 

Mapantz just when things start hotting up

[swebby]

Update om met office site adds 4 options and the baraaobunga option was classed yesterday as low risk

........................Over 20 micro-earthquakes have been detected in the Askja region. It is thought that these earthquakes have occurred due to stress changes north of the dyke intrusion.

GPS measurements show continued horizontal movements north of Vatnajökull due to formation of the dyke intrusion on the northern edge of the ice-cap............................

 

Has anyone got any thoughts on the increasing number of EQ's in the region E/NE of askja?  Will it be as the IMO states, as I assume this statement was drafted on data collected prior to the increased activity seen in this area over the past 12hrs.

 

[john pike]

http://www.ruv.is/frett/eruption-at-bardarbunga-now-more-likely

[john pike]

Hi swebby

Realistically no one really knows what happens next

All we can do is watch and learn :-)

[Rustynailer]

Let's chill a bit guys. Iceland was created by volcanic activity and the Icelandic people are very used to eruptions.

It doesn't show here: http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/

Give it time, mind I am wrong as often as right these days, with 2-4Hz

 

Hi swebby

Realistically no one really knows what happens next

All we can do is watch and learn :-)

My sentiment exactly, but it is great fun to postulate for want of news and truth. Quite often one can be surprised by having a "feeling about something" aswell.....

[Rustynailer]

Has anyone got any thoughts on the increasing number of EQ's in the region E/NE of askja?  Will it be as the IMO states, as I assume this statement was drafted on data collected prior to the increased activity seen in this area over the past 12hrs.

 

After manual correction it looks like this.  They are an hour behind atm. Something happening in the NE, my guess is maybe, likely not Askja connected, more like another easier path, maybe Askja is melted shut from last time she erupted. 

Edited August 30, 2014 by Rustynailer

[If Wishes made Weather]

It looks like there has been a quieter (not quiet) 8 hrs or so since mid morning, however there does appear to a certain cyclical rhythm to the earthquakes with fewer larger quakes during daylight hours (as per table below from the Icelandic Met Office website.  

 

Although not a very relevant topic to this thread, the IMO website is an absolute pleasure with various sections aimed at different levels of reader from simple graphic overview charts, to areas that are in more technical detail, and cited extracts and links to even more specialist research materials in its various earth science topics. 

 

 

Date Time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude Quality Location Saturday
30.08.2014 07:03:02 64.611 -17.457 2.9 km 5.4 99.0 4.7 km SE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
30.08.2014 06:18:43 64.678 -17.465 9.1 km 4.2 99.0 5.1 km NE of Bárðarbunga Saturday
30.08.2014 02:35:34 64.676 -17.463 8.3 km 4.5 99.0 5.0 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
29.08.2014 20:12:23 64.872 -16.839 11.9 km 3.0 99.0 19.5 km E of Trölladyngja Friday
29.08.2014 17:45:02 64.860 -16.845 9.7 km 3.0 99.0 19.3 km ENE of Kistufell Friday
29.08.2014 16:27:44 64.667 -17.458 4.9 km 4.1 99.0 4.5 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
29.08.2014 13:17:50 64.861 -16.848 8.0 km 3.3 99.0 19.2 km ENE of Kistufell Friday
29.08.2014 12:21:46 64.683 -17.430 9.2 km 5.2 99.0 6.6 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
29.08.2014 11:14:59 64.674 -17.461 6.8 km 4.8 99.0 4.9 km NE of Bárðarbunga Friday
29.08.2014 08:16:25 64.625 -17.366 6.1 km 3.4 99.0 7.9 km ESE of Bárðarbunga Friday
29.08.2014 06:38:11 64.848 -16.849 5.7 km 3.5 99.0 18.6 km ENE of Kistufell Friday
29.08.2014 04:37:54 64.660 -17.384 0.8 km 3.8 99.0 7.2 km ENE of Bárðarbunga Friday
29.08.2014 00:34:53 64.805 -16.898 14.2 km 3.3 99.0 14.9 km E of Kistufell Thursday
28.08.2014 23:01:18 64.671 -17.460 5.4 km 3.3 99.0 4.7 km NE of Bárðarbunga Thursday
28.08.2014 21:19:35 64.803 -16.901 10.3 km 3.0 99.0 14.8 km E of Kistufell Thursday
28.08.2014 20:21:30 64.802 -16.895 3.3 km 3.1 99.0 15.0 km E of Kistufell

[Rustynailer]

 

It looks like there has been a quieter (not quiet) 8 hrs or so since mid morning, however there does appear to a certain cyclical rhythm to the earthquakes with fewer larger quakes during daylight hours (as per table below from the Icelandic Met Office website.  

 

Bit of a upwards trend atm.

[Buriedundersnow]

Eruption at Bardarbunga now more likely

 

http://www.ruv.is/frett/eruption-at-bardarbunga-now-more-likely

[Rustynailer]

Eruption at Bardarbunga now more likely

 

http://www.ruv.is/frett/eruption-at-bardarbunga-now-more-likely

Today's Bada EQ's. Gut feeling still says, sods law if we have a flank collapse or a caldera collapse it happens when Mila cam is effected by bad weather. But yes the more quakes the higher the risk, especially a collapse of the very large caldera, it is that big it is hard to stop when destabilized more than is sensible. I would say that threshold has been passed, the gravity law says that the large chunk of ice was in equilibrium with its surroundings before this event. The event is still ongoing so I would say that the Volcano is highly dangerous. It can partially collapse it any time aswell which is still not nice and can be for all intents and purposes just as disrupt-able in our part of the world.....

 

 

And the up tick across the board is down again as I post 1919Z file thin looking thing to show the point, these all across the board tremors are the dangerous bit. She mother Earth is speaking and she can yet shout.

We are humbled I think.

The large edifice on the panning bada 2 Mila cam is making clouds just like Fawley refinery viewed from The Isle of Wight (24/7 it makes clouds, sort of double polluting for refining fuel  . The large edifice is a volcano that was formed under a glacier in the last ice age. In my opinion it is out gassing. One has to look over a period of days to see the relevance, 

Edited August 30, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Rustynailer]

Askja is shaking the most atm Second file is the corrected quakes just before 1945Z. If any of the latest quakes concentrate on the 

Tjörnes fracture zone it is more overall rifting pressure. Likely cause more pressure on the rifting effect.

 

 

Dry sand blowing on the Mila cam, I bet there is some steam too.    \In the background is that steaming or gassing edifice Last file.....

Edited August 30, 2014 by Rustynailer

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

 

It looks like there has been a quieter (not quiet) 8 hrs or so since mid morning, however there does appear to a certain cyclical rhythm to the earthquakes with fewer larger quakes during daylight hours (as per table below from the Icelandic Met Office website.  

 

Although not a very relevant topic to this thread, the IMO website is an absolute pleasure with various sections aimed at different levels of reader from simple graphic overview charts, to areas that are in more technical detail, and cited extracts and links to even more specialist research materials in its various earth science topics. 

 

I've noticed the cyclical cycle as well Tim, I was wondering about any Moon or Sun/Moon influence.

 

As for the IMO website I agree  --  but until 4-5 years ago the IMO and the Earthquake people were separate, brought together to save money, but they have done a fantastic job

[Rustynailer]

Askja is the only one talking atm. If its that young girL from Cambridge Uni and her super accurate equipment we shall see  https://twitter.com/fencingtobba

Edited August 30, 2014 by Rustynailer

[Zephyr]

This is a good little tool from the IMO, http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/quakes3d/