iceland Bárðarbunga and Askja - Volcanic Activity

[john pike]

http://www.mbl.is/frettir/english/2014/09/17/this_is_only_the_beginning/

[Rustynailer]

@ Rusty,ooooh!!! well spotted,now i can chillax lol

 

is that from the KVERKFJÖLL cam,looks familiar(sorry for the bold,was copied&pasted)

Yes it is Kv...The link is not available for me to give, But when I can get to the computer I will post occasional snips. The officials in Iceland are very nice, they let us post snips rather than linking, it helps prevent swamping(eruptions go viral quick), the picture is credited at the bottom, my thanks go to them profusely...At least we can see. Weather permitting.

[Allseasons-Si]

Thanks rusty,understood

 

http://www.mbl.is/frettir/english/2014/09/17/this_is_only_the_beginning/

 

John,do you think that this next eruption will/maybe take place NE of Askja or NWW of barda?

 

there have been numerous tremors/EQ'S in those areas.

Edited September 18, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[Rustynailer]

http://www.mbl.is/frettir/english/2014/09/17/this_is_only_the_beginning/

Well into 2015 even. My reckoning of a NE flank collapse and eruption, is I think still on the cards, I thought it would have happened by now, but perhaps as the fissure is still young it could take a little longer.

The officials are having worries about the amount of Ice laden water mush that can move down slope fast, the white mass from a glacial volcano flank collapse is one of natures nightmares, half an hours warning is not enough time , I see there worry plainly. All the glacial outlet routs from the main glacier are risky...

 

Caldera...

 

Plots...

 

 

The auto positioning of the recent bigger ones   

Edited September 18, 2014 by Rustynailer

[john pike]

hi allseasons

 

personally i feel if the subsidence of bara keeps going thats likely to be the problem

 

but still think NE flank

 

i also still think a bigger quake is likely

 

there is also the possibility this could all abruptly stop and resume at a later date

 

the askja one is tricky but personally feel the plumbing set up wont let it happen (imo that though)

 

hi rusty

 

agree re the flooding and also flank :-)

 

half an hour is not good

 

lets hope whatever happens no one gets hurt

[john pike]

The two large earthquakes in the South Iceland

seismic zone on June 17 and 21, 2000

 

A time dependent hazard assessment or long-term prediction was stated 15 years ago for the area, saying that there was more than 80% probability that large earthquakes would break through the SISZ during the next 25 years. The earthquakes would probably start at the eastern end of the seismic zone with an event of magnitude 6.3 to 7.5, but during the next days or months a sequence of earthquakes would follow further to the west in the zone [4]. Later revisions of magnitudes and hazard assessments assume that the largest possible earthquake in this zone does not exceed magnitude 7.2 (Ms) [7,13]. The time dependent hazard assessment based on this, just before the earthquakes, was that there was 98% probability of a magnitude 6 earthquake during the next 25 years and lower probability for a larger one.

 

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/skyrslur/June17and21_2000/index.html

 

its worth a read

[john pike]

 

creeping up again

[Allseasons-Si]

Could be a re-eruption here

 

http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=5003&cpage=1

Edited September 18, 2014 by Allseasons-si

[If Wishes made Weather]

 

creeping up again

And bang on cue what looks like a circa mag 4 earthquake showing on JonFr's sensor plots.

[karyo]

And bang on cue what looks like a circa mag 4 earthquake showing on JonFr's sensor plots.

The IMO has it as a 2+ earthquake but they are bound to upgrade it shortly.

 

There is a drop in the GPS too!

[john pike]

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/BARC/

 

hi k link above

and this as well

Edited September 18, 2014 by john pike

[john pike]

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/alert/?id=ox615;SC3&date=2014-09-18

 

raw data for 1 quake = around 4 but mo tend to show these higher

[If Wishes made Weather]

I'm afraid my assessment is far less scientific than that John - just going off the size on JonFr's plot and comparing to others that have been similar.

[john pike]

hi tim

 

its easier your way as the raw does not always show iceland

 

but if you see it on here

 

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/seismologist.php

 

the average between the stations is normally what they call

[john pike]

Thursday

18.09.2014 21:43:33 64.668 -17.481 6.5 km 4.5 99.0 3.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga

Edited September 18, 2014 by john pike

[If Wishes made Weather]

Thanks for that John - I'll save the address.  Looks like that they have upped it a bit more to 4.5, and taken the depth down from the initial 1.1km to 6.5km.  Exactly where the other ones have been today.  The more of this, the more I wonder how much the volcano's ice encasement is preventing some sort of structural collapse.

[karyo]

Thursday

18.09.2014 21:43:33 64.668 -17.481 6.5 km 4.5 99.0 3.8 km NE of Bárðarbunga

 

So that's the 4th earthquake above M4 in the caldera in the last 24 hours!

[If Wishes made Weather]

Looks to be Karyo, and the GPS thing is falling off a cliff at the moment.

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/BARC/

[karyo]

Looks to be Karyo, and the GPS thing is falling off a cliff at the moment.

http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/Bardarb/BARC/

I don't know what I am more addicted to; the GPS or the IMO earthquake plot!

 

Bedtime for me, see you all tomorrow.

[john pike]

goodnight karyo

 

i wonder how far this can drop before the ice becomes unstable

 

there has to be some sort of tipping point

 

or if the NE keeps getting quakes how long before the side of it becomes weaker

 

too many questions

 

one thing i have learnt

 

expect the unexpected with these things

[Sussex Jules]

Hi John I have been hanging out on the YouTube live feed. Fascinating stuff and don't think I will forget some of the images I have seen. Jonfr did mention a tipping point of 45m a few days ago but who knows.

[Love Snow]

Quote from Jon

The point of no return was at around 45 meters mark (+- 10 meters). That might have changed in recent days. I am trying to figure that out now.

[Sussex Jules]

Hey snow. Snap!

[joggs]

How far in depth are we so far?

Thanks.

[Love Snow]

Nice article http://mashable.com/2014/08/26/iceland-volcano-bardarbunga-tremors/?utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Mashable+%28Mashable%29&utm_cid=Mash-Prod-RSS-Feedburner-All-Partial&utm_medium=feed&utm_source=feedburner