OCTOBER PATTERN INDEX (OPI) MONITORING WINTER SEASON 2014-2015

[LomondSnowstorm]

It was a good post until you said 'and if all goes according to plan, this winter could end up being colder than.. '

As I pointed out earlier, a +1.64 for the end of October for the states, final Winter figure was +0.18. So it's first year in use for there, was a failure.

What I do see, is that OPI is good at predicting a pattern, the weather on the other hand.. A different kettle of fish!

My point is, too many people are figuring we're in for a cold one this Winter if we finish with a -ve OPI. I'm sure the cold lovers in the states must have been depressed at seeing +1.64 at the end of October last year, then look what happened? lol

Once again, why on earth do you keep referring to the AO value as being 'for the states'? It's a NH-wide index which, while having a reasonably good correlation with mid latitude temperatures, isn't in itself indicative of anything other than the relative heights over the Arctic compared to at lower latitudes. The forecast for the US was actually the most accurate part of Riccardo's OPI-based forecast, with the PV digging south into Canada being flagged up far earlier than it was by the LRFs or the official forecasts over there.

[Duane S.]

It was a good post until you said 'and if all goes according to plan, this winter could end up being colder than.. '

As I pointed out earlier, a +1.64 for the end of October for the states, final Winter figure was +0.18. So it's first year in use for there, was a failure.

What I do see, is that OPI is good at predicting a pattern, the weather on the other hand.. A different kettle of fish!

My point is, too many people are figuring we're in for a cold one this Winter if we finish with a -ve OPI. I'm sure the cold lovers in the states must have been depressed at seeing +1.64 at the end of October last year, then look what happened? lol

+AO strong vortex conditions driven by a frigid stratosphere (aka winter 13/14) can and often does bring cold to the NE of the US whereas it would never have the same effect (bar in certain circumstances over the usual high elevation locations) here in the UK other than in toppler guises.

[bobbydog]

It was a good post until you said 'and if all goes according to plan, this winter could end up being colder than.. '

As I pointed out earlier, a +1.64 for the end of October for the states, final Winter figure was +0.18. So it's first year in use for there, was a failure.

What I do see, is that OPI is good at predicting a pattern, the weather on the other hand.. A different kettle of fish!

My point is, too many people are figuring we're in for a cold one this Winter if we finish with a -ve OPI. I'm sure the cold lovers in the states must have been depressed at seeing +1.64 at the end of October last year, then look what happened? lol

I'm pretty sure i said "if ALL goes according to plan"

not 'if the OPI is negative'

Im fully aware of the fact that a hemispheric weather pattern does not predict the actual weather for a few thousand square miles of land for a 3 month period (i.e. a season) but thanks for the concern mate...

[Captain Shortwave]

Last year was an extreme year where 2 polar opposite factors were allowed to co-exist due to their specific strengths. Simply put usually either a strong vortex would have existed bringing a mild winter with less rainfall or the pacific ridge would have amplified the downstream pattern. Instead we got an amplified pacific with all the energy being ploughed into the north west part of Europe, as the Pacific ridge force the already flat jetstream further south than it would usually lie. Hence the absolutely dreadful winter.

We have a weaker but still significant warm anomaly in the Pacific, but I think we will have a much weaker polar vortex this year. I suspect Greenland blocking would be unlikely unless it is established early or late February into March. Any significant cold spell will come from the east via a Scandi block in my opinion.

Edited October 17, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Penrith Snow]

I have just read Ricardo's NH Winter prediction from 07.11.13 and I have to say it was 95% accurate, even pinpointing the North East US cold wave and very strong polar vortex,

 

At the time the MetO and others were pointing to mid-latitude blocking which never materialised so if I had to put money on it I would go with the OPI for a winter prediction 2014/15.

 

It might not be perfect but its better than the crap CFS pumps out every day!

 

Winter 2014/15 could be a cracker but lets wait untill the 31st October.

 

Andy

 

[Nouska]

It was a good post until you said 'and if all goes according to plan, this winter could end up being colder than.. '

As I pointed out earlier, a +1.64 for the end of October for the states, final Winter figure was +0.18. So it's first year in use for there, was a failure.

What I do see, is that OPI is good at predicting a pattern, the weather on the other hand.. A different kettle of fish!

My point is, too many people are figuring we're in for a cold one this Winter if we finish with a -ve OPI. I'm sure the cold lovers in the states must have been depressed at seeing +1.64 at the end of October last year, then look what happened? lol

 

Au contraire!

 

When Riccardo posted this on the seventh of November, I bet the jaws were hitting the desks and there was a sudden run on 'Depends!

 

[Mapantz]

Once again, why on earth do you keep referring to the AO value as being 'for the states'? It's a NH-wide index which, while having a reasonably good correlation with mid latitude temperatures, isn't in itself indicative of anything other than the relative heights over the Arctic compared to at lower latitudes. The forecast for the US was actually the most accurate part of Riccardo's OPI-based forecast, with the PV digging south into Canada being flagged up far earlier than it was by the LRFs or the official forecasts over there.

Because it was used there last year just as it used here. I didn't just pluck it out of thin air, I have been reading various articles. Many folks state side believed that the + OPI that was calculated would ruin their chances for cold Winter, just like many in here think that a - OPI will create the opposite. I understand that it isn't entirely important but I don't see why it cannot be mentioned? It seems easy to be attacked for having a difference of opinion when it comes to Winter in this country. I'm not a mildy or a coldie, but unless I say the right thing, I run the risk of being called allsorts.. It's all good of course.

[Man With Beard]

I'm absolutely loving the debate on here, please keep it coming!

It seems this will be a very good year to test the theory out. The OPI seems likely now to return a very low figure, one that would predict a decent -AO and with it a high chance of below average temps for a good time (huge simplification disclaimer!!). However, many seasonal models are going for a slightly above average rain/temps winter. Some on the strat thread are pointing out some conditions which are not on the side of cold. And from a very amateurish point of view, the Atlantic is hardly benign at the moment and active Octobers often become active winters. So left to my own devices I would be thinking nothing less than average for 14/15 - as I get the impression some others are. If the OPI does indeed end up below 1.5 and we get a 2009/10 revisited, it will be all the more impressive for me as it would have outtrumped other models and signals.

[Mapantz]

The final figure was for the averaged AO, which has the square root of nothing to do with the United States

Then why was Riccardo posting on American wx forums? The discussions were pretty much the same as here.. But ok.

[feb1991blizzard]

Lovely ending to the month +ve heights over the pole.

 

[SMU]

Then why was Riccardo posting on American wx forums? The discussions were pretty much the same as here.. But ok.

 

Because the OPI Isnt just the AO, its also the measure of the 'expression' of the vortex. If they have reanalysed every years index & grouped them & also grouped Octobers PV's elliptical angles then you will end up with a fair few analogues to generate the forecast. After looking at the Composites for JUST winters with a Positive OPI & Westerly QBo riccardos wouldn't have forecast the Anomaly in SE Canada, he would have put the vortex nearer Greenland, so some his forecast will have come from the angle groupings from October.

 

S

[Yarmy]

Then why was Riccardo posting on American wx forums? The discussions were pretty much the same as here.. But ok.

I'm lost with this non sequitur? The weird thing is that I more or less agree with you. Until we have several years of evidence to back this metric up we might be chasing shadows.

But that 7th November 2013 prediction of the PV decamping to the NE US for the winter was absolutely nailed on and that's why it has everyone's attention. Some bust.

[Mapantz]

I'm lost with this non sequitur? The weird thing is that I more or less agree with you. Until we have several years of evidence to back this metric up we might be chasing shadows.

But that 7th November 2013 prediction of the PV decamping to the NE US for the winter was absolutely nailed on and that's why it has everyone's attention. Some bust.

haha! I agree with what you've said too.

I just think there's a mounting hyperbole towards our winter. I'm simply over cautious, nothing more, nothing less.

[Mucka]

haha! I agree with what you've said too.

I just think there's a mounting hyperbole towards our winter. I'm simply over cautious, nothing more, nothing less.

 

You are more contrary than cautious I think.

 

I am very enthusiastic and excited to see how this new tool works for sure but like everyone else here I am in wait and see mode as far as results are concerned.

I don't think we all need advising that this may not be a magic wand.

 

What has happened to the website anyway - it has stopped updating? Shot them an email.

 

Looking at this mornings runs ECM not out yet), re a low negative OPI wanted, GFS will probably be the worse of the models out to day10 again though not bad at all in its own right with an Arctic high for much of the time.

GEM looks very blocked day 10, UKMO has a cut off Scandi high by day 7 so I'm sure that would be good too.

Edited October 18, 2014 by Mucka

[John Badrick]

I'm absolutely loving the debate on here, please keep it coming!

It seems this will be a very good year to test the theory out. The OPI seems likely now to return a very low figure, one that would predict a decent -AO and with it a high chance of below average temps for a good time (huge simplification disclaimer!!). However, many seasonal models are going for a slightly above average rain/temps winter. Some on the strat thread are pointing out some conditions which are not on the side of cold. And from a very amateurish point of view, the Atlantic is hardly benign at the moment and active Octobers often become active winters. So left to my own devices I would be thinking nothing less than average for 14/15 - as I get the impression some others are. If the OPI does indeed end up below 1.5 and we get a 2009/10 revisited, it will be all the more impressive for me as it would have outtrumped other models and signals.

 

 

 

 

 

Most of the more knowledgeable folk in the strat thread are pointing out that the teleconnections this year are contradicting the seasonal long range data. They are basically saying the condition of the PV and the forecast for the strat are different to last year and so more favorable for cold conditions for us. If things continue this way strat wise then we should see a change to a more colder outlook in the November update of the long range seasonal models. 

 

"chionomaniac, on 16 Oct 2014 - Why is it that I think that we should ignore the seasonal model forecasts this year? - they are so far out of sync with the background teleconnective analogues.

 

 â€‹Hope you don't mind me quoting you Chino

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2014 by John Badrick

[karyo]

Frustrating to see the index stuck in yesterday's 6z! However, the GFS looks good this morning so I am pretty confident that the figure will be well negative again.

[Mucka]

Frustrating to see the index stuck in yesterday's 6z! However, the GFS looks good this morning so I am pretty confident that the figure will be well negative again.

 

I am in conversation with them via email. I am just asking for their permission to post why it is not being updated here and also asked if they might like to pop in and clarify one or two other things that have been raised here.

Edited October 18, 2014 by Mucka

[karyo]

I am in conversation with them via email. I am just asking for their permission to post why it is not being updated here and also asked if they might like to pop in and clarify one or two other things that have been raised here.

Thanks Mucka, I've also dropped them a quick e-mail to alert them to the fact there has been no update.

[karyo]

I have just received a reply from the OPI team (Guido Dudi) and it's got me confused and puzzled! 

 

No, it's not. Since The index is calculated both with consolidated and forecasted charts, if the forecasted pattern is out of a specific range (too wide variability) those runs are not used and you see only the last one we used. 

OPI team

 

I basically told them that the index is stuck in yesterday's 6z. I didn't think that today's forecasted pattern has too much variability. It is still dominated by high pressure in the Artic like it has for some time.

Edited October 18, 2014 by karyo

[Mucka]

Thanks Mucka, I've also dropped them a quick e-mail to alert them to the fact there has been no update.

 

Yes apparently it is deliberate on their part and I will post their explanation here but I figured it would be good manners to ask permission from them first since it was a reply to personal email and not a forum post. It also gave me chance to invite them back to the thread to clarify any other queries and perhaps give some added insight.

 

Edit. Okay I see the response has been posted. The response I got was the same and I replied with the following email.

 

Thank you so much for the information. 

Do you mind if I post to netweather in the thread Riccardo set up for OPI?

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81494-october-pattern-index-opi-monitoring-winter-season-2014-2015/page-26

 

It has prompted a lot of discussion.

Also may I ask if could you elaborate on the parameters of "outside specific range". For example is that 12z compared to 06z range or is it a day to day range and how what is the specific range it must fall outside to be ignored.

 

I feel I could ask many more questions raised by members within the forum but perhaps you could visit the thread yourslef or perhaps you are too busy?

 

Either way I thank you for your time.

Edited October 18, 2014 by Mucka

[karyo]

Yes apparently it is deliberate on their part and I will post their explanation here but I figured it would be good manners to ask permission from them first since it was a reply to personal email and not a forum post. It also gave me chance to invite them back to the thread to clarify any other queries and perhaps give some added insight.

Did they accept the invitation?

[lorenzo]

It was the Asian Geopotential Height Anomaly in Siberia with the 12z..

 

[Mucka]

Did they accept the invitation?

 

No reply as yet Karyo. As soon as I get one I will report back or hopefully they will pop up here.

 

 

It was the Asian Geopotential Height Anomaly in Siberia with the 12z..

 

0031Cluedo1965Box.jpg

 

    Twas Uncle Bart wot dunnit in the basement with a hair dryer!

Edited October 18, 2014 by Mucka

[easton888]

hmm, hope they're not 'chosing' data not to use...

[Cloud 10]

Sounds as though the software is set up to reject GFS outliers.