Southeast England and East Anglia - Weather Chat

[Jax]

Just checked and  the remote sensor in the shed has it down as 3.4oC

 

Still raining, seems a tad brighter and not so heavy now.

[Captain Shortwave]

3C and rain. Haven't even got dressed yet, no point going out in this ghastly weather.

[Daniel*]

5.4C & raining hard

Not sure what the oranges indicate a wintery mix for N of Luton with them temperatures you are not far off however DPs are far too high, in heavy bursts some could get a mix of rain/sleet/snow. In the evening they're expected to fall but knowing our luck there will be no PPN about.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Daniel*

[Jax]

3C and rain. Haven't even got dressed yet, no point going out in this ghastly weather.

Me neither, not been feeling well so decided to lounge inside.

 

I did think it looked to have stopped raining, and opened the back door to check, was wrong still raining and first time I have been outside today and it really does feel cold out there.

[JennyJane1]

chilly here, was a bit drizzly, just been served by salesperson with no customer service skills in shop, did not help with feeling a bit miserable today. have bought a nice bit of chicken to make a slow cooker casserole with though, will be nice for lunch tomorrow.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Oh well, the MOD thread is divided - some posters saying what I've said for a while - wet and windy zonal conditions until spring; the rest are clinging to the thought of something more settled and chillier from the third week of January.

[Jax]

Just looked out and I think it has nearly stopped raining, judging by the well wrapped up lass walking her shopping home it is not very warm though.

[Captain Shortwave]

Oh well, the MOD thread is divided - some posters saying what I've said for a while - wet and windy zonal conditions until spring; the rest are clinging to the thought of something more settled and chillier from the third week of January.

Certainly nothing until mid-month in terms of cold, beyond that we are still too far away to be certain of any pattern change. People are being way too bullish about this, especially as we have seen cold spells at day 6-8 vanish without a trace.

Events in the stratosphere are not driving our weather patterns in the way we would hope for. MJO looks positive at the moment but again this could hit phase 5/6 before descending into the circle of death (AKA) no favourable pattern change to high latitude blocking.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Well that was one horrific walk home.

 

Dads car went in for a service today, and I spent all my change last night for the bus (doh!) Had to walk home from Eastwood to Benfleet in the gusty winds and relentless rain. Thoroughly soaked! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Anyway some more thoughts on January

 

First half, mild and wet, potentially stormy at times, the last 10 days could see a cold snap similar to the end of December. Nothing significant in terms of a proper blocked and very cold scenario.

[Jax]

Had a very short walk out a while ago and since coming home the house feels colder, rather thought it would be warmer feeling after being out in the chill damp afternoon air.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Anyway some more thoughts on January

 

First half, mild and wet, potentially stormy at times, the last 10 days could see a cold snap similar to the end of December. Nothing significant in terms of a proper blocked and very cold scenario.

I've tried watching his videos, but what with his dodgy sound quality, propensity to gabble and heavy Brummie accent, I can't understand what he's saying.  I'd love to be able to ask him to slow down a bit, but fear I'd risk him feeling hurt.

[Don]

Anyway some more thoughts on January

 

First half, mild and wet, potentially stormy at times, the last 10 days could see a cold snap similar to the end of December. Nothing significant in terms of a proper blocked and very cold scenario.

 

Not a promising update from the CFS v2 for February.

[lassie23]

I've tried watching his videos, but what with his dodgy sound quality, propensity to gabble and heavy Brummie accent, I can't understand what he's saying.  I'd love to be able to ask him to slow down a bit, but fear I'd risk him feeling hurt.

He's  always on the look out for snow or northern blocking! He'll need a magnifying glass. Surprisingly cold though today, only 4.7c, been drizzling since 8am!

[shotski]

Certainly nothing until mid-month in terms of cold, beyond that we are still too far away to be certain of any pattern change. People are being way too bullish about this, especially as we have seen cold spells at day 6-8 vanish without a trace.

Events in the stratosphere are not driving our weather patterns in the way we would hope for. MJO looks positive at the moment but again this could hit phase 5/6 before descending into the circle of death (AKA) no favourable pattern change to high latitude blocking.

With all due respect the phantom cold spells that vanished over the last couple of years have been heights to our north east and to be honest getting a block there this side of Feb is very rare indeed without a significant SSW. With the majority of GEFS ensemble going for a mid Atlantic block or even dare I say it a greeny high mid month onwards. My money would be on a cold to very cold end of January.

[Captain Shortwave]

^Actually many of the great cold spells tend to involve both as blocking tends to be fluid and in those cases heights move around in our favour.

Take the latest GFS(P) run

We see heights over Greenland stretching over to Svalbard and northern Siberia, a likely evolution from here would be to sink low heights over souther Europe and build heights towards Scandinavia setting up an easterly flow, by that point low pressure in the Atlantic can try to attack from the west/south west. In favourable scenarios the low undercuts the block now to our north/north east and can allow heights to retrogress towards Greenland again with a renewed plunge of cold air from the north east as heights drop over Scandinavia. I can't remember the thread where some of the great cold spells can be seen from a model perspective, but the key I saw was heights oscillating between north west and north east.

 

To the matter of hand, given how far away a potential cold spell is, I can't place any faith in the details, indeed will the cold spell occur? If yes then how long? How potent? A lot of questions and at this present time quite a few cold spells have been thwarted, we were looking at northerlies before they disappeared, then as the ridge collapsed we thought that we could pull in an easterly as high pressure build over the top of the sinking trough beyond Boxing day. So in fact both the northerly and easterly failed to give more than a brief cold and drier spell (around 5 days in the end of surface cold). In the end, I can't get myself excited about a cold spell. Well yet anyway

 

The GFS (P) is very nice by the end and would be a well deserved cold spell if it came off.

Edited January 3, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Don]

He's  always on the look out for snow or northern blocking! He'll need a magnifying glass. Surprisingly cold though today, only 4.7c, been drizzling since 8am!

 

It was mild here earlier, around 11C at 2 pm. However, the temperature then plummeted by 5C in an hour to just 6C at 3 pm!

[Captain Shortwave]

Beyond long ramblings, the cloud clears about an hour ago and it is now clear. FAX charts later, but here are the predicted minima for tonight

Widely -1 to -3C, maybe colder in sheltered spots. The Fens look to be the coldest spot tonight as well as areas north of this region (Vale of York)

[Jax]

Just quickly went out in the back garden and it really is feeling cold out now.

 

if we do get the frost tonight it will be nasty in the morning if your driving.

[shotski]

I agree with what you say but I have more faith in the current outputs evolution than if it was showing a Scandinavian high , as it was pre Xmas period, as a mid Atlantic ridge cuts off the energy and allows low heights to dig down into Europe. Traditionally late feb and March would be the favoured time fore a scandi block. I'm cheered by the fact the output had shown a constant trend from mid month.

[Captain Shortwave]

Certainly nothing until mid-month in terms of cold, beyond that we are still too far away to be certain of any pattern change. People are being way too bullish about this, especially as we have seen cold spells at day 6-8 vanish without a trace.

Events in the stratosphere are not driving our weather patterns in the way we would hope for. MJO looks positive at the moment but again this could hit phase 5/6 before descending into the circle of death (AKA) no favourable pattern change to high latitude blocking.

Adding to this earlier, this post in the model discussion thread adds a bit more meat.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82124-model-output-discussion-into-2015/page-71#entry3105828

GFS and ens very much in favour of getting to phase 7 which is associated with a strong Atlantic ridge/potential Greenland block. The GFS does seem to be the only model going for this at the moment with the other models never really making it that far before dropping into the centre where the MJO gives no discernible trend.

[Daniel*]

With the mercury dropping below freezing & surface water sticking around it is going to get extremely icy, take care. Slippery surfaces can catch you out - at least there is no black ice now that is like marble smothered with butter. in 2010 I was like a seal, no breaks but I've had over 10, more than enough eh?

[shotski]

Adding to this earlier, this post in the model discussion thread adds a bit more meat.

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82124-model-output-discussion-into-2015/page-71#entry3105828

GFS and ens very much in favour of getting to phase 7 which is associated with a strong Atlantic ridge/potential Greenland block. The GFS does seem to be the only model going for this at the moment with the other models never really making it that far before dropping into the centre where the MJO gives no discernible trend.

I think I remember Ian Fergusson comment on the fact that ALL 51 members of the EC-EPS clusters out to t-360 were showing high pressure to our west and low pressure to our north east so a little support there.

[lassie23]

It was mild here earlier, around 11C at 2 pm. However, the temperature then plummeted by 5C in an hour to just 6C at 3 pm!

Looks like it will dip to freezing tonight!

 

I've tried watching his videos, but what with his dodgy sound quality, propensity to gabble and heavy Brummie accent, I can't understand what he's saying.  I'd love to be able to ask him to slow down a bit, but fear I'd risk him feeling hurt.

You may find this forecaster more to your liking! :smiliz19: http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

[Jax]

2.2oC here now