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The Midlands - Weather Chat

Paul

By Paul
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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

Poor poor gfs!!! Just cant trust that model at the moment! ! When you look at the 12z you think how can it look that different at such a short time frame from the last run!! Just ridiculous! !

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if it swung back in our favour again on the 18z run. I don't think any of the models have a clue with this event. It is a complicated event to nail down but it's annoying that it's changing in as short a timeframe as T36!!

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

Well actually just as gfs comes out with that, bbc 3:57 forecast shows snow falling in the east mids until wed pm

Be very suprised looks like its loosing intensity already and warm air mixing in way too much expect a change soon when they see the latest charts we can but hope now

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The Wolf Enthusiast

The Wolf

Posted
  • Location: South Staffs
  • Location: South Staffs
Posted (edited)

It has been a big let down. All looked so good a few days ago. Now it

Looks rubbish.

PPN looks weak and it looks like cold rain. Dreadful.

Knew this would happen but still really frustrating.

Little wonder the Met have released no warnings. There is

nothing to warn about!

Edited by The Wolf
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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted

Just as i have been saying all along lol too many hang ups on long term model forcasting in these forums these days!!!!! anything further than 3 days out in winter is hope casting...

But this is 30 hrs  out?    surprises may still happen   keep believing 

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weather_it_will Contributor

weather_it_will

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
  • Location: Worcestershire/Warwickshire/North Oxfordshire
Posted

 

 There is nothing to warn about!

 

Some angry GFS viewers on the loose perhaps. :laugh:

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Arctic Hare Accomplished

Arctic Hare

Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
Posted (edited)

I really shouldn't be complaining too much, as (unlike some here) I have at least seen lying snow on two occasions in the last week. And I never really expected tomorrow night to work out anyway. But I do feel disappointed... by something that hasn't even happened yet! I know that's silly, but weather-watching is emotional and it would be boring if we were all totally objective about it. Things could change back in our favour, of course -- yes, different setup I'm aware, but the February 2007 snap was supposed to be sleet/rain about 12 hours out and actually gave me a full weekend of snow. But the odds are against.

 

I think I'm going to ignore the models totally and make up my own. The AH Model is currently showing a nailed-on easterly bringing -20C uppers across the Midlands for the rest of the winter. No, really it is. :p

Edited by Arctic Hare
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andy_leics22 Rising Star

andy_leics22

Posted
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms
  • Location: Ratby, Leicester.
Posted

It has been a big let down. All looked so good a few days ago. Now it

Looks rubbish.

PPN looks weak and it looks like cold rain. Dreadful.

Knew this would happen but still really frustrating.

Little wonder the Met have released no warnings. There is

nothing to warn about!

Downgrades at short notice used to bother me a lot, but not anymore. Sure i'm disappointed but over 10 years of following model runs has made me somewhat immune to it :D I never get my hopes up until it's at t6 or t12!

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Essan Community Regular

Essan

Posted
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
  • Location: Evesham, Worcs, Albion
Posted

Looks at GFS 12z I would expect warnings for icy roads Wednesday morning - looks like turning quite treacherous with a good freeze after the (light, patchy) rain has cleared east ....  :D

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conor123 Community Regular

conor123

Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
Posted

Soooooo frustrating *throws toys out pram*, really nothing left to say now, the potential in the mid-long term completely vanished to top it off.

Cold, damp and grey till Friday then Azores muck for foreseeable future, exciting stuff.

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted

Well, let's see what kind of cruel tease the models will invent over the next few days ay?

We still have the coldest month to go and I believe that we will have given up completely only for something magical to appear at short notice.

There are no records of two winters on the trot having zero lying snow, that fact at least, is in our favour.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

It has snow for much of the midlands but it just sweeps thorough quickly whereas the last few runs have stalled it across us!!! Dont lose faith it is a p*** take but it might go back to what it was showing on the 18z!!

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TheIceManCometh Newbie

TheIceManCometh

Posted
Posted

I'm confident that this will flip again. Why? Because the models have been dire over the last week. I've no idea why as I'm not knowledgeable enough, but something is causing them to handle this week very badly. In a sadistic way I quite like a downgrade a couple of days before. I'm not comfortable going into the 36 hour range with my area being bang under the 'sweet spot' as you just KNOW it's going to screw you over and move on the day. Much rather it all takes a flip for the better at T12 where there's not much time to change back!  :rofl:

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Serendipity Contributor

Serendipity

Posted
  • Location: Stratford Upon Avon 82m asl
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: Stratford Upon Avon 82m asl
Posted

Oh dear. I suspected this would end up a damp squib and it seems that is exactly how it will turn out.

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Ryan05 Rookie

Ryan05

Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham
Posted

Well, let's see what kind of cruel tease the models will invent over the next few days ay?

We still have the coldest month to go and I believe that we will have given up completely only for something magical to appear at short notice.

There are no records of two winters on the trot having zero lying snow, that fact at least, is in our favour.

 

In fairness some parts of the Midlands have done quite well, we had bugger all last winter not even a flake yet this winter we had lying snow from Boxing Day till New Years Eve.

 

I appreciate that is no confort to you in your neck of the woods but some parts of the Midlands have done well. Sadly tomorrows potential snow event just doesn't look like panning out but with it being only the 19th of Jan its far to early to write the rest of the winter off. As today has shown the models can quickly change

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Gord Rising Star

Gord

Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
Posted (edited)

To be fair, the only thing thats suggested a big snow event over the past few days has been computer generated models and forecasts.

 

The professionals (actual human beings), who have access to more information than us, have continually through their forecasts on TV and radio, and through their tweets played the whole thing down.

 

A good lesson for me anyway. And it's kind of humbling that if it doesn't pan out the way we want, that the human input has made the right call. That's the way science should be!

Edited by Gord
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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

I think I'm going to ignore the models totally and make up my own. The AH Model is currently showing a nailed-on easterly bringing -20C uppers across the Midlands for the rest of the winter. No, really it is. :p

I hope this model is accurate. Really would not want that Easterly to get taken away on the 18Z AH run. :p

Actually, as a matter of fact, I've just looked at the 12Z Red Line model and it agrees with your model. It's also very confident that most places in the Midlands will receive upto 72cm of snow this Wednesday. :cold:

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beefy201 Enthusiast

beefy201

Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
Posted

I hope this model is accurate. Really would not want that Easterly to get taken away on the 18Z AH run. :p

Actually, as a matter of fact, I've just looked at the 12Z Red Line model and it agrees with your model. It's also very confident that most places in the Midlands will receive upto 72cm of snow this Wednesday. :cold:

Really Red line?? 72cm lol where the cotswolds????

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Serendipity Contributor

Serendipity

Posted
  • Location: Stratford Upon Avon 82m asl
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: Stratford Upon Avon 82m asl
Posted

Really Red line?? 72cm lol where the cotswolds????

 

wake up beefy  :D

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beefy201 Enthusiast

beefy201

Posted
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Alvechurch 8 miles South West of Birmingham
Posted

wake up beefy  :D

It was called sarcasim Serendipity :yahoo:

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LadyEv06 Explorer

LadyEv06

Posted
  • Location: Sutton-in-Ashfield, Notts, NG17, 163m ASL
  • Location: Sutton-in-Ashfield, Notts, NG17, 163m ASL
Posted

MetO still have my area down for heavy snow between 10pm tomorrow night at 6am Wednesday morning. 

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted (edited)

Really Red line?? 72cm lol where the cotswolds????

The biggest dumpings will be over Solihull and also over Leicester, although everywhere else will at least still see between 60 to 70cm of snow...

(PS: nah, just made it up I'm afraid. But kinda wish it was true, though).

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
For spelling Leicester incorrectly
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Forecasts4u Newbie

Forecasts4u

Posted
  • Location: Northants
  • Location: Northants
Posted

Most interesting thing about this cold spell so far is how quickly temperatures are dropping this evening, falling at a rate of 1.7C an hour and now about to here freezing here in Towcester. Northants.

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