Model Output Discussion - The final stretch to Christmas

[492]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

Note the position of the 510 dm thickness line which is shown extending southwestwards from Russia towards Italy at T+84. This is several hundred miles further SW than on the previous run.

[johnholmes]

nice chart from Nick=best area for snow=drive to the Peak District but do be careful you could be there for some time on the higher roads!

web cams for Derbyshire link below

http://www.derbyphotos.co.uk/webcams/index.htm

Cat and Fiddle, perhaps the most likely area for deepish snow?

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/

there are others, Buxton and the village of Flash on the Staff/Derby border

so enjoy if you cannot get there

[mushymanrob]

bbc suggest daily max's to monday of 4-6c, unless theyve got it incredibly wrong , that would thaw anything thats settled. but of course 95% of the country wont get snow anyway.

 

[Frosty.]

no karl, you got pulled up for over estimating it... 'a week of cold guaranteed' and 'blizzards' , you never post charts to highlight the areas that might get cold/snow, even here youre saying 'some areas'... well where?... that IS misleading and confusing for those with little knowlege but view these pages for info.

even this post is overstating what we are likely to get.... the bbc / news have daily maxs above freezing, no mention of fog, and little in the way of 'heavy snow' for 95% of the country.

todays shortwave will produce some snow, but its mostly rain for the south of the uk, its largely sleet or wet snow thats unlikely to settle but produce a slush-fest for the % where it will snow. very few places will get much in the way of lying snow (higher ground most favoured), although clearing skies after late rain/sleet / snow could well freeze whatevers on the ground. but a winter wonderland is imho highly unlikely. im in line for a dumping, tomorrow morning im expecting a crispy frozen slight covering at best.

wintry showers are expected tomorrow and sunday, but with daytime max's comfortably above zero anthing lying will slowly melt.

by tuesday much higher uppers are expected to cross the uk, with the southeast hanging on to the cold frosty conditions longest. now these uppers wont lift the temps much, and is likely to ride over the embedded cold air - inversion, and that means dull, raw, overcast, dry days . but it would prevent overnight fog and frost.

so we have 3 colder wintry days before things return to more average (which is cold). theres nothing  particualy mild unless those warmer uppers dont invert... weds-fri might turn out milder especially in the northwest, the southeast hangs on to the coldest weather longest.

Sorry mushy Rob but that sounds like bitterness and sour grapes in your tone, and not only that, you have also misquoted everything I have previously said so take it all back. :-)

[mushymanrob]

nice chart from Nick=best area for snow=drive to the Peak District but do be careful you could be there for some time on the higher roads!

web cams for Derbyshire link below

http://www.derbyphotos.co.uk/webcams/index.htm

Cat and Fiddle, perhaps the most likely area for deepish snow?

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/

there are others, Buxton and the village of Flash on the Staff/Derby border

so enjoy if you cannot get there

 

the cat and fiddle get snow in june john!   they get it whilst down here its mild!

[mushymanrob]

Sorry mushy Rob but that sounds like bitterness and sour grapes in your tone, and not only that, you have also misquoted everything I have previously said so take it all back. :-)

 

lol.. ive no reason to be bitter mate.... i do genuinely believe you have over ramped this cold period and ive highlighted why. mis quote? you did say 'a week of cold guaranteed'.

anyway, lets sit back for a couple of days then compare whether or not you  have overstated this event, or i have understated it... deal?

[frosty ground]

nice chart from Nick=best area for snow=drive to the Peak District but do be careful you could be there for some time on the higher roads!

web cams for Derbyshire link below

http://www.derbyphotos.co.uk/webcams/index.htm

Cat and Fiddle, perhaps the most likely area for deepish snow?

http://www.maccinfo.com/cat/

there are others, Buxton and the village of Flash on the Staff/Derby border

so enjoy if you cannot get there

In Derby or the south coast?

My local for cast is +1 +2 after today....... neither 4 or 6. But then I don't know where those temps are for

[Carlrg]

Ireland's going to get their fair share according to this realtime satelite map. Already turning to snow there. Peeps can keep an eye on their own backyard as well. What happens at at ground zero is another story though.

 

http://uk.weather.com/mapRoom/mapRoom

[Frosty.]

lol.. ive no reason to be bitter mate.... i do genuinely believe you have over ramped this cold period and ive highlighted why. mis quote? you did say 'a week of cold guaranteed'.

anyway, lets sit back for a couple of days then compare whether or not you  have overstated this event, or i have understated it... deal?

Hi mushy, merry Christmas mate. The weather models are certainly in festive mood and although we have our disagreements, I still respect your opinions as a long time contributor to Netweather..peace :-)

[Nick L]

And 3...2...1...we're back to discussing the model output!

[IDO]

GFS 06z has as expected shifted towards its mean at D7 with a sinking high and the Atlantic moving into the NW:

 

 Ditto the P: 

 

Highs around the southern part of the M25 are forecast as 4c with lows of -1c for the next 4-5 days so colder than of late but far from freezer type weather. Further north and at altitude (as you would expect) progressively colder.

[IDO]

Met just updated and track now confident but it appears snow is down to intensity due to very borderline variables. A case of nowcasting I suspect:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50

Edited December 26, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Nick F]

lol.. ive no reason to be bitter m8.... i do genuinely believe you have over ramped this cold period and ive highlighted why. mis quote? you did say 'a week of cold guaranteed'.

anyway, lets sit back for a couple of days then compare whether or not you  have overstated this event, or i have understated it... deal?

 

It's looking cold though Mushy for next 5-6 days? Ok, not very cold but certainly not mild.

 

Sat 15z

 

Sun 15z

 

Mon 15z

 

Tues 15z

 

Weds 15z

 

Thurs 15z

[Banbury]

This really is classic stuff today with rain spreading from the southwest and bumping into the colder air which then turns the rain to sleet and then wet snow, some central areas could see 15-20 cm which is a good 6 to 8 inches, and the good news is it will then freeze and no thaw is expected for certainly the reliable timeframe. I can see there being some impressive overnight minima once things settle down. Looking further ahead, the met office are bullish about the Atlantic returning during the second half of next week but things could become very interesting with battle ground scenarios, undercuts and general disruption and certainly not a return to run of the mill, mild Atlantic mush. I think January could deliver the wintry goods this time around. :-)

Your posts are always a delight to read

[TEITS]

bbc suggest daily max's to monday of 4-6c, unless theyve got it incredibly wrong , that would thaw anything thats settled. but of course 95% of the country wont get snow anyway.

Very much doubt that.

 

According to the chart below many will see temps around or just above freezing.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs814.gif

 

Those who do see snowfall tonight are likely to keep it for a few days. The mistake many make when referring to thawing snow is to look at the predicted 2m temps. However dewpoints make a massive difference to the rate of thawing snow and these are predicted to be around -4C. The short daylight hrs will also help.

 

As for tonight and im just waiting to see what happens rather than looking at the models. I shall tell a little story as to why this is the case.

 

Many years ago a marginal snow event was forecast for my area but sadly only heavy rain fell during the entire period. I went to bed gutted that night and the following day traveled into the city centre. On my journey I noticed some cars driving around with a foot of snow on the roofs of these cars. I learn't that just 5 miles to the E of the city, heavy snow fell. Now my conclusion to this was although Peterborough isn't big enough to create a heat urban affect like London for example, the temp difference in the city of Peterborough was enough to keep this as rain whilst 5 miles E into the countryside was just cold enough for the rain to turn to snow. This type of localised snowfall could well occur tonight!

[karlos1983]

Surely the ground temps can't be that cold at the moment for any snow to hang around for days?

[mushymanrob]

Hi mushy, merry Christmas mate. The weather models are certainly in festive mood and although we have our disagreements, I still respect your opinions as a long time contributor to Netweather..peace :-)

 

you too karl.. ... btw, im in line for some snow, if im bitter, its bitterly cold! lol

 

It's looking cold though Mushy for next 5-6 days? Ok, not very cold but certainly not mild.

 

Sat 15z

temp_sa15z.png

 

Sun 15z

temp_su15z.png

 

Mon 15z

temp_m15z.png

 

Tues 15z

temp_tu15.png

 

Weds 15z

temp_w15.png

 

Thurs 15z

temp_th15.png

 

 

Very much doubt that.

 

According to the chart below many will see temps around or just above freezing.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs814.gif

 

Those who do see snowfall tonight are likely to keep it for a few days. The mistake many make when referring to thawing snow is to look at the predicted 2m temps. However dewpoints make a massive difference to the rate of thawing snow and these are predicted to be around -4C. The short daylight hrs will also help.

 

 

nick, dave, im aware of what the gfs max/min temp predictions are, but they are notoriously unreliable. i do find the bbc closer and as i type they are on again about temps sat-mon maxs 2 - 6c . if the gfs is right, then frosty will likely be most accurate, if the bbc is then my take is more likely to be accurate ... so instead of a circular debate lets just wait and see!

[Eskimo]

Please keep this Mods as I think it's important. A lot of people were/are indeed bashing Frosty for his exuberance when it comes to snow. Although, granted, he doesn't post charts to back up his thoughts, but I'm sure, actually certain, he's the anchor for reoccurring members on this site. The traffic on Netweather trebles or quadruples during the Winter period, Frosty's excitable updates are genuinely what people look for and he's one of many that bring new members back onto the forum every time. 

I understand there are other threads, but if we want people to get interested into the weather and not be scared to venture into this thread, I think some Mods should be more lenient and the members bashing him should allow him to keep his exuberance as it can too serious and droll in here at times. 

Edited December 26, 2014 by PerfectStorm

[nick sussex]

Good post by TEITS and I can say from experience here just how crucial dew point is rather than air temperature.

 

In this part of the world we can often seen some big swings in temperature, even in mid winter you can get temperatures in the high teens however theres a marked difference in snow loss in the Pyrenees if the flow is se rather than sw.

 

You can have temps 15 to 17c with dew point of 2, compared to temps of 11 with a dew point of 9, snow loss is far greater in the latter.

 

In the UK snow melt for example would be far greater with a temp of lets say 2 dew point 1 rather than a temp of 5 dew point -2.

 

That's why you often see patches of frost remaining all day in the shade even with temps above freezing. It's for this same reason that you can get snow with 850 temps just below freezing with a continental feed undercutting rain moving in from the west as opposed to 850 temps of lets say -6c in a modified nw flow which will more likely produce rain.

[mushymanrob]

Please keep this Mods as I think it's important. A lot of people were/are indeed bashing Frosty for his exuberance when it comes to snow. Although, granted, he doesn't post charts to back up his thoughts, but I'm sure, actually certain, he's the anchor for reoccurring members on this site. The traffic on Netweather trebles or quadruples during the Winter period, Frosty's excitable updates are genuinely what people look for and he's one of many that bring new members back onto the forum every time. 

I understand there are other threads, but if we want people to get interested into the weather and not be scared to venture into this thread, I think some Mods should be more lenient and the members bashing him should allow him to keep his exuberance as it can too serious and droll in here at times. 

 

its a forum for discussing differing views/interpretations , theres no malice between me n frosty, we go back a long time and are here year round

[nick sussex]

The infamous snow event from February 6 1996, just by looking at those 850's some would think how on earth did that produce some remarkable snow totals especially in the nw, even the Channel Islands saw significant snow from this and see how close they are to the 0c 850 temperature.

 

SLP

 

 

850 Temperature

 

 

The key was that the actual flow into the UK was from the se.

 

For those old enough to remember this event and who lived in London at the time like myself this event is etched in the memory as the snow ground to a halt just to the west of London!

Edited December 26, 2014 by nick sussex

[winterof79]

It's looking cold though Mushy for next 5-6 days? Ok, not very cold but certainly not mild.

 

Sat 15z

temp_sa15z.png

 

Sun 15z

temp_su15z.png

 

Mon 15z

temp_m15z.png

 

Tues 15z

temp_tu15.png

 

Weds 15z

temp_w15.png

 

Thurs 15z

temp_th15.png

Updated warning.

 

Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action

Issued at: 1034 on Fri 26 Dec 2014

 

There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 1500 on Friday and 1200 on Wednesday in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

 

Low pressure, tracking southeastwards over central and southern England later Boxing Day and overnight into Saturday 27th, is expected to give a period of sleet and snow across the Midlands, some northern parts of East Anglia and southern parts of both NW England and Yorks and Humberside. Some significant snow accumulations are possible, especially on higher ground. Strong winds will develop in places for a time, exacerbating the chill. As the low clears away southeastwards, cold air will move south across the whole of England giving a risk of wintry showers and icy conditions across England for the rest of Saturday. Sunday to Tuesday, high pressure brings lighter winds but with widespread night frosts and freezing fog patches which may linger well into the day in places

 

Nuff said

Edited December 26, 2014 by winterof79

[johnholmes]

In Derby or the south coast?

My local for cast is +1 +2 after today....... neither 4 or 6. But then I don't know where those temps are for

On I pad so just ask what do you want to know pse

John

 

back to pc so ask again pse and I will try to help

Edited December 26, 2014 by johnholmes

[snowking]

Latest Euro4 takes us towards the aforementioned ECMWF 'middle ground' type scenario:

 

 

Spot totals of 20cm showing across parts of the E Midlands there

 

SK

 

Edit: It should be noted that current radar returns across Ireland are more intense than forecast by Euro4 for midday - could be a sign of the fronts occluding a little sooner than expected, which would prove better news for more widespread snowfall hopes later.

Edited December 26, 2014 by snowking

[frosty ground]

On I pad so just ask what do you want to know pse

John

Well it's very simple.... The location for the forecasted temps. ....

I am going to assume he's talking city centre temps and southern locations