May 2015 CET forecasts

[Summer Sun]

11.0c to the 12th

 

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

10.9c to the 13th

 

0.5c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 6.9C while maxima look like hitting the mid 11s, so a drop to 10.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.8C to the 15th (9.9)

10.7C to the 16th (10.2)

10.6C to the 17th (8.6)

10.6C to the 18th (9.8]

10.5C to the 19th (8.7)

10.4C to the 20th (9.0)

10.4C to the 21st (9.4)

10.4C to the 22nd (11.2)

10.4C to the 23rd (10.1)

 

The cool spell is now here, with little sign of warm conditions on the horizon.

 

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to the 14th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited May 15, 2015 by Summer Sun

[damianslaw]

Can't see a significantly above average CET month now occurring. Odds of a very near average month high, odds colder than average probably highest they have been at any similar point in a month since August last year, but lots of time to go.

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to the 15th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited May 17, 2015 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 9.3C while maxima look like reaching about 14C, so an increase to 10.9C on tomorrows update is likely.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.8C to the 17th (9.3)

10.8C to the 18th (10.3)

10.6C to the 19th (8.3)

10.6C to the 20th (9.4)

10.6C to the 21st (10.1)

10.6C to the 22nd (12.3)

10.6C to the 23rd (9.6)

10.5C to the 24th (8.5)

10.4C to the 25th (8.1)

 

After today, a gradual drop in the CET looks likely. A very warm final week (averaging >16C) would be needed to take things back to average should the 06z GFS be correct.

[Summer Sun]

10.9c to the 16th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 10.4C 1.4C below average.

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to the 17th

 

0.2c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 7.6C while maxima look like being around the mid 12s, so remaining on 10.8C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.7C to the 19th (9.7)

10.7C to the 20th (9.7)

10.7C to the 21st (11.4)

10.8C to the 22nd (12.5)

10.9C to the 23rd (12.0)

10.8C to the 24th (9.6)

10.9C to the 25th (12.8]

11.0C to the 26th (14.3)

11.1C to the 27th (12.6)

 

The GFS now going for a slightly above average end to the month, probably not enough to take us above the 81-10 average (11.7C), but we could beat the 61-90 average (11.2C).

At this stage, a finish in the range of 10.4C to 11.6C before corrections is likely, 10.0C to 11.6C after corrections.

 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Just to give me a ray of hope, would we be able to still hit 12C CET if we have a warm last week?

Edited May 18, 2015 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Roger J Smith]

If the estimates from BFTV are right but the GFS is a bit conservative on the warming, let's say we got to 11.3 by the end of the 27th then it would need an average of 16.7 for the last four days to get to 12 (before any corrections). That would mean highs around 23 or 24. It's plausible but would need that early departure from the current model trend. If the model is right and there's an 0.2 downward correction in the works, then from 10.9 it needs to be 19.3, near record warmth, to reach 12.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just to give me a ray of hope, would we be able to still hit 12C CET if we have a warm last week?

 

I pretty much agree with RJS.

It would take some exceptional warmth for the end of the month, especially after viewing the 00z which would have us on about 11.0C to the 28th. With the forecast set up (high pressure in the Atlantic slow moving toward us) it's unlikely we'll see any truly hot spell before June, just low 20s during the day and low teens/high single figures at night in the best case scenario.

 

I'd guess a 20% chance of finishing above 11.5C before corrections.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Thanks for the replies.  Looks like I and quite a few others overcooked it this month.  May will be remembered for the NW flow and the kink in the jet stream.  Very happy the jet seems to be heading north this week!

[Summer Sun]

10.8c to the 18th

 

0.1c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[IanR]

 I think the cet is really misleading  , even carol kirkwood on the bbc forcast said many places have been 2 to 3 degrees Celsius below average, it has certainly felt like that here,  dismal month    

[BornFromTheVoid]

10.7C to the 19th

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2015

 

Yesterday was 9.1C. The minimum today is 5.1C while maxima look like hitting the mid 14s, so remaining on 10.7C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

10.8C to the 21st (12.1) 

10.9C to the 22nd (13.7)

10.9C to the 23rd (11.4)

11.0C to the 24th (12.1)

10.9C to the 25th (8.9)

10.9C to the 26th (11.3)

10.9C to the 27th (12.2)

10.9C to the 28th (11.0)

10.9C to the 29th (9.1)

 

Things remaining chilly overall, with the chances of reaching the 81-10 average now looking very slim. Odds are probably against reaching the 61-90 average by months end too.

[Summer Sun]

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average currently

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 10.1C but I expect that too be the low point of the month. Although I surprised if we hit average by the 31st.

[Summer Sun]

10.6c to the 20th

 

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Weather-history]

10.6c to the 20th

 

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

To put into perspective, May 1996 at the same stage was just 7.4C

[Relativistic]

To put into perspective, May 1996 at the same stage was just 7.4C

That genuinely made my jaw drop. That figure is incredible. How did it end up at over 9C then, a warm up in the final week?

[Weather-history]

That genuinely made my jaw drop. That figure is incredible. How did it end up at over 9C then, a warm up in the final week?

Yes, the last few days stopped a record chance.

[Relativistic]

Yes, the last few days stopped a record chance.

Shame. Kind of like December 2010 then. Just goes to show that it is still possible to beat the coldest months on record, even after the Little Ice Age.