June 2015 CET forecasts

[Summer Sun]

13.0c to the 16th

 

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is a mild 11.9C, while maxima look like hitting about 21C, so an increase to 13.2C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

13.2C to the 18th (13.1)

13.2C to the 19th (13.6)

13.4C to the 20th (16.7)

13.4C  to the 21st (13.8]

13.4C to the 22nd (12.0)

13.3C to the 23rd (12.7)

13.3C to the 24th (13.8]

13.4C to the 25th (14.0)

13.5C to the 26th (15.5)

 

Relatively cool conditions persisting, with the next 10 days forecast to be about 0.8C below the 81-10 average, and 0.4C below the 61-90 average.

 

 

Throughout the entire CET record, the warmest day of June averages about 18.8C, with the last 30 years averaging 19.4C for the warmest day. The warmest day so far this month is (provisionally) 16.3C on the 5th, though 16.7C is forecast for the 20th. For the entire record, only 39 June's (16%) have failed to get a day of 17C or above, and only 25 (10%) have failed to reach at least 16.5C.

The last June to not get a day of 17C or higher was 2008, which managed just 16.6C. While the last June to not get 16.5C or higher was 1985, which achieved  a warmest day of just 15.6C.

For curiosities sake, the warmest days of June range from 23C in 1947 to just 14.2C in 1972.

[Relativistic]

 

For curiosities sake, the warmest days of June range from 23C in 1947 to just 14.2C in 1972.

 

The crazy thing is that the 23C was hit on the 3rd!

[Roger J Smith]

Must have been the reflection off the remnant ice fields of central Wales.

[damianslaw]

No real rise in the CET forecast for foreseeable future, so a good chance we could end up with the coldest June since 1991, but we have a long way to go yet and a warm end could see us record a slightly above average CET against the 61-90 mean. However, equally little chance of anything but a near average CET is likely.

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 17th

 

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield now at 12.6C rising rapidly. Next target the year 2012 with an average of 13.4C. Already beaten 1991.

[Summer Sun]

13.2c to the 18th

 

0.6c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

No update so far from Hadley

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 12.7C a bump up today as well. Pretty sure we will beat 13.4C as well by the end of the month.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking at the latest 12z GFS, the CET would probably be around 14.2C before corrections.

So no real chance of beating the 81-10 average, but a slight chance of catching the 61-90 values.

[summer blizzard]

Good enough for my prediction and indeed my summer forecast (13.7-14.4) although disappointing considering the first half gave us a good shout of notably cool month. 

[Summer Sun]

Nothing again from Hadley so far today

[Lettucing Gutted]

Looking at the latest 12z GFS, the CET would probably be around 14.2C before corrections.

So no real chance of beating the 81-10 average, but a slight chance of catching the 61-90 values.

I hate these months that tease us with being the coldest for a long time only to finish average or even above in the end!

Edited June 22, 2015 by Goodbye Cold Weather! :(

[Summer Sun]

Nothing again from Hadley so far today

[The PIT]

Still on 12.7C a drop today is likely.

[Summer Sun]

13.4c to the 21st

 

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[Relativistic]

I hate these months that tease us with being the coldest for a long time only to finish average or even above in the end!

It's so frustrating. First May, now June. Similar to 2012 in that sense: both May's were looking like they could be sub 10C at their halfway points, and June 2012 was looking like a sub 13C month.

Edited June 22, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 9.8C while maxima look like hitting the high 16s, so remaining on 13.4C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:
 

13.4C to the 23rd (13.4)

13.5C to the 24th (15.1)

13.6C to the 25th (16.6)

13.7C to the 26th (16.4)

13.8C to the 27th (15.3)

13.9C to the 28th (16.2)

14.0C to the 29th (16.2)

14.1C to the 30th (18.4)

 

Odds now in favour of a sub 14C month after corrections.

 

[Timmytour]

Sam there seems to be dissatisfied people on here that this June and summer aren't up to scratch wheras I'm actually largely happy with the feel of this June. Not brilliantly hot, but not awful either.

The years 1992 to 2010 may have somewhat spoiled our expectations of June registering as they did an average Mean CET of above 14.8C.  In fact a CET of around 14C would not only give us our second warmest June of the last five years, but one that was bang on the average for the 25 years that preceded 1992. 

[Summer Sun]

No update so far from Hadley

[Summer Sun]

13.4 which is 0.5 below the 1961-90 average to the 21st.

 

That was posted yesterday https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83167-june-2015-cet-forecasts/?p=3218038

[Summer Sun]

13.4c to the 22nd

 

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

13.5C to the 24th

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2015

 

The minimum today is 9.8C while maxima look like reaching about 21.5C, so an increase to 13.6C is possible of tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

13.7C to the 25th (16.4)

13.8C to the 26th (17.5)

13.9C to the 27th (16.3)

14.0C to the 28th (16.0)

14.0C to the 29th (14.8]

14.1C to the 30th (17.3)

 

At this stage, I'd say a finish of 13.9 to 14.3C is most likely before corrections, then 13.5C to 14.3C after corrections.

 

[Summer Sun]

We remain 0.7c below the 81 to 10 average