June 2015 CET forecasts

[Summer Sun]

13.5c to the 24th

 

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

Good odds we will end up below the 81-10 CET mean and probably 71-00 mean with downward corrections, but with the injection of some warmth over next 4 days, odds looking slimmer regarding finishing below the 61-90 average. However, you look at things it will end up very near the average in tune with quite a number of months this year barring April. July however, is likely to see a marked upward turn raising the odds of an above average month very quickly.

[Weather-history]

Good odds we will end up below the 81-10 CET mean and probably 71-00 mean with downward corrections, but with the injection of some warmth over next 4 days, odds looking slimmer regarding finishing below the 61-90 average. However, you look at things it will end up very near the average in tune with quite a number of months this year barring April. July however, is likely to see a marked upward turn raising the odds of an above average month very quickly.

Aren't the June 1961-90 and 1971-2000 CET averages the same?

[Lettucing Gutted]

Aren't the June 1961-90 and 1971-2000 CET averages the same?

If I'm not mistaken the June 1971-2000 CET along with October are the only ones to be below the 1961-1990 mean though only slightly.

[Summer Sun]

13.7c to the 25th

 

0.3c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

To clarify the averages ... this is what I calculated from my downloaded values

 

14.8 ... average for 2001-2014

14.5 ... average for 1981-2010, also for 1701-1800

14.3 ... average for all years 1659-2014, also 1801-1900

14.2 ... average for 1961-1990, also 1901-2000

14.1 ... average for 1971-2000, also 1659-1700

 

To check this out with more precision, actual values 1961 to 2014 with two-decimal averages for the relevant 30-year periods:

 

YEAR ___ 1961-70 __ 1971-80 __ 1981-90 __ 1991-2000 __ 2001-10 __ 2011-14

 

ends 1 _____ 14.4 _____ 12.4 _____ 13.2 _____ 12.1 ______ 14.3 _____ 13.8

ends 2 _____ 13.7 _____ 11.8 _____ 15.5 _____ 15.7 ______ 14.4 _____ 13.5

ends 3 _____ 14.9 _____ 14.8 _____ 14.4 _____ 15.0 ______ 16.1 _____ 13.6

ends 4 _____ 13.8 _____ 13.9 _____ 14.5 _____ 14.5 ______ 15.3 _____ 15.1

ends 5 _____ 14.7 _____ 14.7 _____ 12.7 _____ 14.3 ______ 15.5

 

ends 6 _____ 15.4 _____ 17.0 _____ 14.8 _____ 14.4 ______ 15.9 

ends 7 _____ 14.0 _____ 12.2 _____ 12.8 _____ 14.1 ______ 15.1 

ends 8 _____ 14.8 _____ 13.7 _____ 14.4 _____ 14.2 ______ 13.9 

ends 9 _____ 13.9 _____ 13.9 _____ 14.6 _____ 13.9 ______ 14.8 

ends 0 _____ 16.4 _____ 13.8 _____ 13.6 _____ 15.1 ______ 15.2 

 

avg _______ 14.60 ____ 13.82 ____ 14.05 ____ 14,33 _____ 15.05 _____ 14.00

 

30-yr _________________________ 14.16 ____ 14.07 _____ 14.48 ____ (14-yr) 14.75

 

So it is true that 1961-90 is marginally higher than 1971-2000 -- rounded off the three most recent 30-year normal periods average 14.2, 14.1, 14.5 as shown in our opening statistics. The 1985 to 2014 average is 14.42.

 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 13.3C going to end up just below normal by the looks of it not by the huge amount that looked possible earlier on.

[Summer Sun]

13.8c to the 26th

 

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.5c below the 81 to 10 average

[March Blizzard]

 

13.5C to the 24th

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2015

 

The minimum today is 9.8C while maxima look like reaching about 21.5C, so an increase to 13.6C is possible of tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

13.7C to the 25th (16.4)

13.8C to the 26th (17.5)

13.9C to the 27th (16.3)

14.0C to the 28th (16.0)

14.0C to the 29th (14.8]

14.1C to the 30th (17.3)

 

At this stage, I'd say a finish of 13.9 to 14.3C is most likely before corrections, then 13.5C to 14.3C after corrections.

 

 

Looking like a much warmer finish to the month now, how will that affect things?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looking like a much warmer finish to the month now, how will that affect things?

 

Here's how things look like going with the 06z GFS

 

13.9C to the 27th (16.6)

14.0C to the 28th (16.2)

14.1C to the 29th (17.0)

14.3C to the 30th (19.4)

 

A jump for the end of the month. Likely finish now between 14.1C and 14.4C, and 13.7C to 14.4C after corrections.

The last 6 days look like averaging about 17.2C, compared to the 81-10 average of 15.6C, so a pretty warm finish, especially when you consider the first 10 days of the month 12.2C and the 81-10 average for that time is 13.7C.

[Timmytour]

....looks like the CET for June could end up above 14.1C now....which means it won't after all end up being the first time for 216 years that each of the first 6 months was over IC colder than the preceding year's corresponding month...but maybe the over 0.8C colder might till apply

What does look more likely is the continuance of the trend set in the laat two years to have all the first six months colder, 1991 and 1951, to have a July that is warmer than the preceding year.

[Weather-history]

.What does look more likely is the continuance of the trend set in the laat two years to have all the first six months colder, 1991 and 1951, to have a July that is warmer than the preceding year.

You lost me here, what trend? How can those two years with the gap between them be turned as a trend?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 13.5C so it will end up a nothing of note month. Considering how it started it shows how a little brief warmer spell can rapidly shift things. We should end up around 13.9C in Sunny Sheffield. That suggests a 14 plus in the CET zone

[Summer Sun]

13.9c to the 27th

 

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

14.0c to the 28th

 

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited June 29, 2015 by Summer Sun

[The PIT]

13.6C for Sunny Sheffield.

[Timmytour]

You lost me here, what trend? How can those two years with the gap between them be turned as a trend?

Tongue was very firmly in cheek...there should have been an exclamation mark at the end of my post which I've only just realised is missing.

Nevertheless, there is a very very tenuous trend! In the last 350 years there's been 10 occasions before this year where the first six months have been colder than the previous year's corresponding months. On the first 8 occasions there followed a colder July as well. But every time its happened in the past 130 years (yes on both occasions!), the July has been just under half a degree warmer!

I'm calling that a trend, however fragile. One that's started though it may not last long!!!

[Summer Sun]

14.1c to the 29th

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

[Costa Del Fal]

Wish I had stuck with my original 14.3c guess. Would have come very close I think!

[BornFromTheVoid]

With the minimum today down as 13.2C, we'd need the maximum to be 27.6C or above to finish on 14.4C before corrections. 27.6C is probably too high though, so 14.3C before corrections is most likely. After corrections, 13.8C to 14.3C is the probable range.

[The PIT]

Well the extra heat today will make a dint in the final figure.

[The PIT]

Today has rammed the final figure up to 13.9C for Sunny Sheffield -0.6C below average.

[damianslaw]

We may just sneak in with a below average month compared to 61-90 average. All dependent on today's CET and how much of an adjustment we might record. Overall despite a warm end, it has in the main been a dissapointingly cool lacklustre June.

[Summer Sun]

June confirmed as 13.98

 

Will be rounded up to 14.0c

Edited July 2, 2015 by Summer Sun

[reef]

Yes, 14.0C so pretty average in the end, marginally below both the 1961-1990 and 1981-2010 means. It was also warmer than 2011, 2012 and 2013.

 

It also continues the trend of every month in 2015 being at least a degree cooler than 2014, though July might break that run!