Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[lassie23]

The rain has set in now after a dry but fairly cloudy morning. Quite mild at 21C. Other side of the Channel? Sunny and 29C. Annoyed.

The heat has been stuck there all summer and flirted with us a number of times, it might do a bit more flirting in September, but time is running out. Bit of a northerly next week :cold: raining here now. The nights are drawing in and the Robins are tittering away in the evening, autumn is on its way.

[stainesbloke]

The heat has been stuck there all summer and flirted with us a number of times, it might do a bit more flirting in September, but time is running out. Bit of a northerly next week :cold: raining here now. The nights are drawing in and the Robins are tittering away in the evening, autumn is on its way.

Indeed it is Lassie, I'm just not ready for it yet! Feels like I've not had enough sun or warmth this year. Hopefully some sunny high pressure will set in during October and give us a nice period of settled weather before the storms pile in. Have a feeling that this Autumn and Winter will be stormy!!

[lassie23]

Indeed it is Lassie, I'm just not ready for it yet! Feels like I've not had enough sun or warmth this year. Hopefully some sunny high pressure will set in during October and give us a nice period of settled weather before the storms pile in. Have a feeling that this Autumn and Winter will be stormy!!

Some forecasters agree with you and have predicted a stormy, mild winter, shame, a blizzard or 10 would make a nice change, instead of a non stop onslaught of onions from the Atlantic.

[Harps]

Pleasant morning today though the all too familiar grey skies quickly took over and now raining for the past hour

[seaside 60]

I really dont want them to be right, mild and stormy please no.

I dont mind wet and wild odd spells but not weeks on end.

I remember the late nineties were like that, so depressing.

[seaside 60]

MInd you lets hope they all predict mild and stormy, that means on recent success rates it should be like the depth of an Siberian winter. :yahoo:

[Bogman]

MInd you lets hope they all predict mild and stormy, that means on recent success rates it should be like the depth of an Siberian winter. :yahoo:

Haha.

[stainesbloke]

Some forecasters agree with you and have predicted a stormy, mild winter, shame, a blizzard or 10 would make a nice change, instead of a non stop onslaught of onions from the Atlantic.

Some high pressure would be nice this winter! Something we haven't seen much of this year at all. Agree that endless lows barrelling in from the Atlantic would be very dreary. Don't mind a brief stint of that but some crisp sunny highs, fog, frost and a brief freeze with snow would be great too.

[Lauren]

None of the heavy rain forecast as of yet.

[Mark wheeler]

Looking at the radar that band Of precipitation coming up and across Us Seems to be slowly intensifying in nature

Edited August 29, 2015 by Mark wheeler

[lassie23]

The rain isn't very errrrrr wet, been standing out in it for a good half hour with my cat and we are both pretty dry. It is steady rain too! Got wetter in drizzle, very humid out. 17.4c

[stainesbloke]

Ooh look, yet another storm clipping Kent. Can they not hit SE England too, or is that against the weather law? Yawn.....

[stainesbloke]

The rain isn't very errrrrr wet, been standing out in it for a good half hour with my cat and we are both pretty dry. It is steady rain too! Got wetter in drizzle, very humid out. 17.4c

Rained quite heavily here for a little while so everything soggy and humid. Feels quite warm tonight.

[tinybill]

i pity  the people here on the east coast over the holiday break its not looking very dry !!

[tinybill]

looking at the radar later on in the morning it could get a bit wet !!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

looking at the radar later on in the morning it could get a bit wet !!

 

That lot in the South west will not get us.. It will move North and then North west.. What you want to watch for is later on today prehaps overnight... 

[Blessed Weather]

That lot in the South west will not get us.. It will move North and then North west.. What you want to watch for is later on today prehaps overnight... 

 

Yes, the Met Office forecaster on the beeb just now talked of a "significant risk" of T&L for this evening and overnight. Below the graphic showing where. Meanwhile this afternoon could turn out sunny and warm in the far SE (up to 23C in Kent & Surrey), whilst the likes of Norfolk endure a grey day with patchy rain. Tomorrow looking cool and wet for most of our Region.

 

20.00 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I fear that any storms really will stay over the other side.. Just look at those winds

 

 

[stainesbloke]

Yet another grey day here, cool at 17C with the NE wind picking up. Meanwhile, N France already 28C in the lovely sunshine. Wish that stupid front would go north a few hundred miles.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yet another grey day here, cool at 17C with the NE wind picking up. Meanwhile, N France already 28C in the lovely sunshine. Wish that stupid front would go north a few hundred miles.

I know how you feel, poor here too, just grey and damp, at least yesterday was fine up here and warm too.

[Essexgooner]

Just a boring cloudy day here so far in Barling

[tinybill]

looking at the radar the first signs of the storms due from France later there are some now poping up near le  mans  in France

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sun out here, lovely summer breeze pleasant

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sun now gone sigh.. Low cloud galore

While I don't really think we have had s to bad summer, The only thing on my mind is come autumn when we start to see the lows roll in of the Atlantic, we still have very hot air to the south and east of us, while the Atlantic cools down, what's going to happen when these 2 air masses collide over us more so in autumn?

[VillagePlank]

Interesting times for the far SE corner.

 

Overall synopsis is an area of deepening (not that much) low pressure slides up the channel affecting Southern and South-East England overning,

 

 

As well as this a cold front moves across Kent and Sussex destabilising the air in the region; in the presence of strong shear, any showers that form are expected to be thunderstorms. The most active region is likely to be over the SouthEast with shear profiles for first 1.5km of atmosphere particularly looking mad,

 

 

Given large showers forming likely as thunderstoms, there is a risk of them initiating in almost any direction as outflow boundaries increase the lapse rates around the storms and initiate more. Here's the risk area (it's the tendency of surface level pressure, but, today, pretty much defines the risk) of heavy rain today and overnight,

 

 

However, let's be honest, we're going for thunderstorms. For home grown ones, the risk of them being created is the deep crimson area in the very far coastal south-east, and into the Channel; but remember it's expected that once a few form, many more will come, too; it's getting it going in the first place, that's the key.

 

 

This all kicks off after dark, this evening - note how the models are forecasting it to really never let up until dawn tomorrow morning

 

 

Happy Hunting

 

Edited August 30, 2015 by VillagePlank