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Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

You'd think by looking at some of these clouds that we would be in for a fairly good day convection-wise, but I can't see much happening at all today as the air is quite stable and the convective potential is low. On top of that, the lapse rates aren't all that impressive and neither are the temperatures at 850hpa.

 

attachicon.gifCAPE.png attachicon.gifLapse.png attachicon.gif850s.png attachicon.gifTheta E.png

 

There will probably just be cloud and maybe the odd light shower today, unfortunately.

Yes I wasnt expecting anything today, but I did have some doubt when seeing those clouds!

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

Ok I'll try writing all that again. Thanks safari I wanted you to refresh the page mid paragraph, I really did.

Anyway I was trying to say I have done a bit of work to some of my shots last night - just recolouring / contrast / exposure / cropping and sharpening (I had my focus out a bit, which is slightly annoying but hey).

I won't deluge the forum with them all at once but here's my favourite:

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Do you mind if I set this as my desktop image?

 

Are we still expecting another plume on Thursday?

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Are we still expecting another plume on Thursday?

 

Latest charts would say not with a NW flow in place by the end of the coming week bringing showers and cooler temperatures. There may be some thundery showers but it would be the polar maritime kind as opposed to the plume kind. Still a long way off though so things may become more favorable again.

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted

Latest charts would say not with a NW flow in place by the end of the coming week bringing showers and cooler temperatures. There may be some thundery showers but it would be the polar maritime kind as opposed to the plume kind. Still a long way off though so things may become more favorable again.

 

Cheers.

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Thunderbolt_ Experienced

Thunderbolt_

Posted
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunshine and thunderstorms. Mild in winter.
  • Location: Failsworth, Manchester - alt: 93m
  • Author
Posted

I don't think the Pm showers are all that good to be honest, especially at this time of the year. All they bring for my location anyway is very blustery showers with the odd crack of thunder. To top it off, it would also be very cool under that airflow, possibly plunging us back to late March.

 

Even on the 19 May this year, my area just got the showers and that was it, whilst many eatsern areas (surprise, surprise) got quite a bit of thunder:

 

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted (edited)

Do you mind if I set this as my desktop image?

Are we still expecting another plume on Thursday?

Of course u can. Here are some others I think I haven't posted already. Forgive me if I have.

post-22340-0-52048200-1437219378_thumb.jpost-22340-0-50988500-1437219416_thumb.jpost-22340-0-15731200-1437219453_thumb.jpost-22340-0-93354300-1437219488_thumb.jpost-22340-0-95721500-1437219530_thumb.j

The different colouring of the pictures is due in-part to trying different settings on the camera. I tried to offset this by recolouring until the pictures looked ok. Next time I'll get the right focus and settings if possible so they will all be a bit more similar tonally

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Oh to be in Limousin today! Just been on the phone to someone in Brive - the thunder has just started and the storms are progged to go on right into the night...

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Bolt from the Blue Enthusiast

Bolt from the Blue

Posted
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
  • Weather Preferences: Fair Weather, Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Sturminster Newton (N. Dorset)
Posted

Level 1 ESTOFEX issued for parts central and northern England.

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?lightningmap=yes&fcstfile=2015072006_201507190001_3_stormforecast.xml

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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted

20150719_095800_zps4shloem9.jpg

Back edge of the line of showers in Burton on Trent.

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted

Oh no! Not another Sunday when we make the wrong decision about going out on our bikes...I have to say, there are some big clouds around here at the moment.

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

Oh no! Not another Sunday when we make the wrong decision about going out on our bikes...I have to say, there are some big clouds around here at the moment.

I think the risk is within the next couple of hours, after this any marginal instability moves off into the North Sea and most of the uk enjoys a pleasant, sunny afternoon with just a few light showers in the north.

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted (edited)

Just for tomorrow temps rise to mid 20's in the East and becomes increasingly humid, dewpoints to 17C as the day wears on and there seems to be a risk of showers popping up in the afternoon. According to GFS LI is still positive with modest CAPE but DLS is strong so this could aid convection. A warm front sweeps in from the South and then a cold front quickly sweeps in from the west clearing away into the evening. Just seen lapse rates and they are not that steep really however convective precip is forecast by GFS. Storm risk is very low though. Euro4 showing a plume of high Theta - W of between 16-18C in the afternoon over EA and the Southeast (Ah thats probably indicating the warm front then).

 

I do need someone with a bit more experience and knowledge to chip in on this if anyone can lend a hand I will be appreciative.

post-7331-0-88723900-1437302469_thumb.pn

Edited by Greenday
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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

Large storm system heading right for this camera just over the Polish border from Germany.

 

There's a level 3 on Estofex for this area (or nearby areas) so should be some nice storms this afternoon for certain places!

 

http://www.zielona-gora.pl/PL/21/Kamery_internetowe/

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted (edited)

Link to camera on previous link (should work on smartphones - testing now).

 

Storm incoming!

 

http://178.33.229.71:1935/wow_zg_palmiarnia/wow_zg_palmiarnia.stream/playlist.m3u8

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

At this time of the afternoon, exactly one year ago, I was chasing a powerful rotating storm out of Coalville/Ashby area :-)

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Homerr Apprentice

Homerr

Posted
  • Location: Harefield, North West London
  • Weather Preferences: Big storm!
  • Location: Harefield, North West London
Posted

I'm now busy sitting on my weeble on Portland, hopefully through some kind of miracle we have some potential this week... I'm in a prime position to get photos of anything that kicks off either here or in the channel!

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NL Aficionado

NL

Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
Posted (edited)

Polish supercell cranking away nicely according to blitzortung ...

That huge thunderstorm is just about to hit Warsaw.

post-5386-0-16345500-1437327177_thumb.pn

Sat24

post-5386-0-07558200-1437327191_thumb.pn

Live streaming webcam..it did have sound awhile back..microphone must be busted.!!

http://oognet.pl/content/details/276

 

post-5386-0-56971400-1437327412_thumb.pn

Edited by NL
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Winter Cold Seasoned

Winter Cold

Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
Posted

That huge thunderstorm is just about to hit Warsaw.

attachicon.gifScreen shot 2015-07-19 at 18.13.32.png

Sat24

attachicon.gifScreen shot 2015-07-19 at 18.32.19.png

Live streaming webcam..it did have sound awhile back..microphone must be busted.!!

http://oognet.pl/content/details/276

 

attachicon.gifScreen shot 2015-07-19 at 18.36.25.png

 

Great pics those :D

 

That looks like something straight out of the midwest in the US doesnt it!!

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted (edited)

Ok better late than never - lost access to my old YouTube account cos I can't remember the email or password so I started a new one for lightning videos :-)

I have uploaded the first of my videos of the nuts anvil-crawler lightning on Thursday night in London. I didn't want to edit it cos I want to show how frequent the lightning really was.

So here it is... In all its unedited glory!

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc
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