Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

[Hector the Convector]

Hopefully the Squal line will intensify further as it heads towards you William. I will keep an eye on your cam!

[Raidan]

Loud rumble of thunder just heard here.

[Raidan]

Not raining but getting the odd rumble hoping it picks up as finished work.

[MP-R]

So it was thunder I heard from work, couldn't tell if it was or not. Peeing it down now.

[Buzzard]

No thunder but some cracking hail down here in Poole. Always better down here than back in LB, like when I was down here in July for the big one!!

[Nick F]

Have issued a convective forecast for the swathe of rain spreading east from Wales and SW England this evening:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=b89382b8a64d42e9dce7323e9e9ddf3f

Seems quite convective in nature in the southern and western extent, probably due to marked dry slot streaming into SW Britain along with associated strong vort max:

Sferic activity seems to have waned though recently ...

[Speedway Slider]

If you look at the shower mass moving in across England, it looks like a man / woman running!!! See attached!! Not very scientific, but hey! Worth a post I'd say!!

[Raidan]

Absolutely belting it down haven't heard anymore thunder.

[Harry]

Sceric west of London recently.

Also I saw a gorgeous Cb off to my NE earlier this afternoon (sadly no pics).

[paul_montague]

37 minutes ago, Speedway Slider said:

If you look at the shower mass moving in across England, it looks like a man / woman running!!! See attached!! Not very scientific, but hey! Worth a post I'd say!!

They holding a baton as well. 

[stainesbloke]

4 minutes ago, Harry said:

Sceric west of London recently.

Also I saw a gorgeous Cb off to my NE earlier this afternoon (sadly no pics).

Yep, massive bright flash of lightning with explosive thunder here, hail too!

[Carl46Wrexham]

Snow falling at higher levels North Wales

Edited March 29, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[paul_montague]

Sferic on IOW never heard it.... Boo lol

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The lightning strike out west of London wasn't far from me.

Trusty Facebook friends reports came in and it has caused a Powercut in the local area and shook the windows near by 

 

[Stuart]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 30 Mar 2016 - 05:59 UTC Thu 31 Mar 2016

ISSUED 16:55 UTC Tue 29 Mar 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough across British Isles will lift northwards as the main jet stream core bulges northwards across southern Britain. At the same time, upper trough axis west of Ireland will continue to approach from the Atlantic, while sharpening.

Therefore, yet another day of widespread but low (non-zero) chance of lightning, particularly so from the Bristol Channel - The Wash northwards, with cold mid-levels combining with diurnal heating to generate 200-300Jkg-1 CAPE. Expect scattered showers, particularly in northern and western areas, with a low spot-location chance of lightning - in general, areas most likely to see this are C / E Ireland.

Have extended the ISOL towards S/SE England and Home Counties, despite the lack of any significant instability, to cater for the (low) risk of lightning given the highly sheared environment as the jet stream continues to migrate slowly northwards, perhaps inhibiting the depth of convection somewhat. There will likely be a lot of medium/high cloud spilling northwards, but nonetheless a few scattered showers may develop and drift slowly eastwards, aided by low-level wind convergence. Shower training may occur here.

Once more, small hail is likely in any stronger cells that develop.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-03-28

 

 

[Liam J]

Some beefy showers over the last hour with some hail mixed in, no lightening. Wonder how long I'll have to wait for the first thunderstorm of 2016! 

[Weather-history]

29th March: showers between two prolonged periods of showery rain

 

 

[Harry]

All very underwhelming - bit of heavy rain and that's your lot.

Roll on May/June when we start to get in to plume range

[vladthemert]

Had belter this afternoon.  about 1.20 pm absolutely belting down with hail too.  We was not in any convection zone so puzzling as looked convective.  Hail not large couple mil diameter.   My weather station shows sharp drop in temp and sharp rise in dew-point at the time. 

[Gordon Webb]

12 hours ago, Harry said:

All very underwhelming - bit of heavy rain and that's your lot.

Roll on May/June when we start to get in to plume range

spoke to a friend of mine recently who has an interest in the spiritualist / mediumship type of thing and he said they he thinks the summer this year will be very dull and cloudy which may ort may not put and dampner on things for you plume watchers , I'm pretty certain you'll all dismiss this out of hand and to be honest I don't think it'll pan out this way but I'll keep an eye out just in case

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

11 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

spoke to a friend of mine recently who has an interest in the spiritualist / mediumship type of thing and he said they he thinks the summer this year will be very dull and cloudy which may ort may not put and dampner on things for you plume watchers , I'm pretty certain you'll all dismiss this out of hand and to be honest I don't think it'll pan out this way but I'll keep an eye out just in case

2012 was exactly that! Normally each year we get at least one or two doses of plume activity. 2012 still managed to produce those HP supercells under quite a cloudy but humid two day plume, so who knows!! 

[weather09]

Interesting evolution on GFS and UKMO-GM this morning, where both build ridge over central Europe toward Scandi while upper trough drops toward Iberia (becoming cut off) end of this week and into next. Noticed GFS hinting at this sort of 500mb pattern recently. ECM not on board.   Is far out so subject to large changes, naturally. Though UKMO support is always welcomed.  

 

Edited March 30, 2016 by weather09

[Nick F]

Showers developing further east through the day again, though thunder and hail most likely across the north and west today, more in my storm forecast:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=cf6c4b926812dae6e8d9b9f44fea0a17

[MP-R]

2012 was the best summer here for thundery activity, chiefly because of August, but not the best for individual storm events. 12th August 2012 brought some good thundery activity in this area following a few days of warmth and humidity. The 28th June event was a non-event here - instead being the warmest day of the month, and pretty sunny.

[Mapantz]

I'm right on the edge of those thundery showers affecting Dorset. You can see the edge of them on my webcam.