Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

another one of those posters in the Model thread with posts in the single figures who seem to be able to pick out yucky mildness from somewhere without actually producing any back up has appeared.   wish the regulars would just ignore them totally tbh....I'm sure they are only after bites

I suspect in this case they're only interested in snow and are just getting miffed due to there not being obvious large amounts in the forecast.

[stevofunnelcl]

edit: got it

Orkney & Shetland, and Borders region

Amber snow warning gone out for tonight, into tomorrow morning

----

Let's ramp, rather than moan

I went to Met Office website, it was slow

Then it popped up, and Amber Snow warning !!

But then it says 'file not found' when i click on it

I guess we have to wait a while

Edited January 13, 2016 by stevofunnelcl

[IanR]

just cant wait for spring,  never liked the months of december and january ,   my two most despised and hated months of the year ,   we got mild rain in december , and now even worse replaced with cold rain,  yes its raining as I type,   cold dark damp miserable,   winter just go!   at least we are on the upward side now,   as for snow ,  no thanks , but at least its better than incessantly falling and flooding winter rains

[Frost HoIIow]

42 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Erm, you can get snow in mild winters. I can't remember a snowless winter

Never had a snowless Winter in this area either in terms of at least 1 covering, even the awful Winter of 13-14 we managed a brief light snow cover one evening in February. And I very much doubt this Winter will be snowless either. We had a snow cover in November just gone but that was just favoured surfaces.

Edited January 13, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[TheHumph]

9 minutes ago, IanR said:

just cant wait for spring,  never liked the months of december and january ,   my two most despised and hated months of the year ,   we got mild rain in december , and now even worse replaced with cold rain,  yes its raining as I type,   cold dark damp miserable,   winter just go!   at least we are on the upward side now,   as for snow ,  no thanks , but at least its better than incessantly falling and flooding winter rains

I quite like cold weather but as IanR has stated above that's not what we're getting at the moment. I've  just been on the Model thread and people keep saying things like "now the cold is in place". Well it certainly isn't here in the South. It was sunny and 8c at times today with light winds. At best this is cool. Any precipitation falling will be rain/sleet i'm afraid.

[Timmytour]

24 minutes ago, TheHumph said:

I quite like cold weather but as IanR has stated above that's not what we're getting at the moment. I've  just been on the Model thread and people keep saying things like "now the cold is in place". Well it certainly isn't here in the South. It was sunny and 8c at times today with light winds. At best this is cool. Any precipitation falling will be rain/sleet i'm afraid.

Wait for it....not quite due yet....

 

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I can!  1997/98 was snowless, as was at least one during the 2000-05 period.

exactly.... when i joined this site (05) people were bemoaning the 'even larger teapot' because in the winters of 96-04 there was very little snow, and several snowless winters.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Erm, you can get snow in mild winters. I can't remember a snowless winter

yep i know..... but i remember several snowless ones, not even seeing a flake let alone settling.

cecking local stats...

 

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

But until the last 2 years, we had snow every year as far back as I can remember (late 70s) this period is setting a precedent in this part of the country :-(

Not in the SE; from the early 90's we had over 15 years of 'low or no snow' winters. I remember chatting with friends about it, remembering that we were quite spoilt in the 80's. The Midlands obviously did better in that period.

[knocker]

The GEFs, and the ecm and NOAA, anomalies have been signalling HP adjacent to the UK for the near term evolution for a wee while now. And continue to do so tonight. Just to add tonight's gfs det. output epitomises this scenario. It's not a very cold HP.

Saw Sid this morning and he remains optimistic so still squaffing his nuts.

Edited January 13, 2016 by knocker

[Timmytour]

13 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Not in the SE; from the early 90's we had over 15 years of 'low or no snow' winters. I remember chatting with friends about it, remembering that we were quite spoilt in the 80's. The Midlands obviously did better in that period.

I'd even reached the stage when I started to believe that Independent article from 2000 about global warming that said our kids wouldn't know snow!!

[crazysnowcatz4]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Not in the SE; from the early 90's we had over 15 years of 'low or no snow' winters. I remember chatting with friends about it, remembering that we were quite spoilt in the 80's. The Midlands obviously did better in that period.

Mmm I think there were a number of snowy years from 1990 - 2005 in the south east, 1995 December ,snow all round pretty much, snow on Christmas day of 1996  and 1997 was absolutely momentus in January with loads of snow . It was so cold and snowy in my neck of the woods that the shops had to close early. There is also a really good photo of Canterbury Cathedral covered in snow from 1991.  However South East is quite a big area.. for me Surrey is up North..

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, crazysnowcatz4 said:

Mmm I think there were a number of snowy years from 1990 - 2005 in the south east, 1995 December ,snow all round pretty much, snow on Christmas day of 1996  and 1997 was absolutely momentus in January with loads of snow . It was so cold and snowy in my neck of the woods that the shops had to close early. There is also a really good photo of Canterbury Cathedral covered in snow from 1991.  However South East is quite a big area.. for me Surrey is up North..

That's just it though, parts of Kent and Essex got loads of snow, my area sod all. Huge variations in the SE, let alone the UK. Christmas Day snow??! Lol, think I saw that last here around 1979?!! Or maybe '81?

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly tonight is more or less in agreement with the GEFs. It's looking at the intrusion of the warmer air around the middle of the week and thereafter the HP is in close proximity to the UK with temps returning to around average. There is a tendency in the latter stages of the ext period for the HP to be more influential in the south with perhaps the north receiving more unsettled weather from systems passing NE. Tonight's NOAA output doesn't appear adverse to this scenario.

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm anomaly tonight is more or less in agreement with the GEFs. It's looking at the intrusion of the warmer air around the middle of the week and thereafter the HP is in close proximity to the UK with temps returning to around average. There is a tendency in the latter stages of the ext period for the HP to be more influential in the south with perhaps the north receiving more unsettled weather from systems passing NE. Tonight's NOAA output doesn't appear adverse to this scenario.

Not sure how you get average from that Knocker.  High pressure looks slap bang over us which would deliver hard frosts by night and suppressed daytime temperatures surely? 

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not sure how you get average from that Knocker.  High pressure looks slap bang over us which would deliver hard frosts by night and suppressed daytime temperatures surely? 

That does depend on the set up of the high and obviously there will be diurnal and geographic variations but neither the GEFS or the ecm in the ext period would indicate anything particularly cold with the flow generally from the south west. Again this depends on the orientation of the HP. Obviously this doesn't rule out frosts but certainly nothing like this weekend. And as an overview around average doesn't rule out being slightly below.

Edited January 13, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Think the doom mongers are going to be busy today !!!

[knocker]

Doom mongers!! Oh I see you mean those who take an objective approach to the outputs and caste bias aside nws.

I take it the buzz words today are undercut followed by twenty Hail Marys

Edited January 14, 2016 by knocker

[fat chad]

Just been on the model thread and it's laughable how everyone is throwing their toy's out of the pram over this morning's run's....... Remember we have no control over the weather.... I'd take a sunny high over a dank and miserable low any day... Of course it could be a cloudy high, but at least it wouldn't amount to more than the odd drizzle.... Football with the kid's tonight and Sunday.... The last thing we want is rain for that!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

mild air moves in on GFS at 6am Monday, after light snizzly snow, UKMO still looks good, but makes me wonder if GFS has modeled this the best generally, see where we are after 12Z's, don't expect GFS and ECM to flip again, more like flip flops if ECM right

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies this morning are singing a familiar tune. Transition around mid week and thereafter HP in attendance, being more influential in the south as the run unfolds with the north perhaps copping some more unsettled weather. Temps around average of perhaps a little above post transition.

Edited January 14, 2016 by knocker

[cyclonic happiness]

I'm wondering, seeing the ground is so wet and warm, would that be conducive to freezing fog formation, once we get the HP over us?

That for me, is an easy second best to snow, and makes for stunning pictures. 

[knocker]

Yes indeed..............the magic of rime.

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Doom mongers!! Oh I see you mean those who take an objective approach to the outputs and caste bias aside nws.

I take it the buzz words today are undercut followed by twenty Hail Marys

I refer the honourable gentleman to the model thread

On a serious note we seem to have fairly decent consensus of a uk high next week,certainly from the euro's.

While im here i just want  to say i detest north westerlies.:(

 

Edited January 14, 2016 by northwestsnow

[snowblizzard]

I absolutely detest South Westerly's (during winter) and, for the last 12 weeks or more, every time I've looked out of my window the clouds have been coming from the South West sector!

I long for a decent spell of East North Easterly's dragging frigid air into Kent from the continent.

Dream on!