just for fun when will be the next proper below average month

[Lettucing Gutted]

Since we are once again stuck in yet another relentless mild train period I think it's time for the antithesis of the "just for fun when will be the next proper above average month" thread.

So just for fun of course, when do you think the next proper below average month will occur.  By "proper" I mean a month that is at least 0.5C colder than the coldest of the 1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 CET averages.  For all months of the year this is the 1961-1990 average although June and October were slightly cooler in the 1971-2000 average than the other 2 modern averages.

Since August seems to be the only month that shows any signs of cooling beyond 1 year now (at least post 2004) I predict that August 2016 will be the first proper cold month since September 2015 if not March 2013.  However we remain stuck in a strong El Nino and possibly the longest multiyear El Nino since 1990-1995 so I won't be surprised if 2016 becomes the first year to record no cool months at all.  Also strong La Nina years seem not to favour proper cold months either with November and December 2010 and summer 2011 perhaps being very cold outliers in strong La Nina years.

[Roger J Smith]

February, under 3.0 unless it recovers too quickly near the end from a very cold first half.

[Captain Shortwave]

February, I can't see a recovery in the second half to justify a 3C+ CET with cold spells likely through the first half of Spring.

[Lakigigar]

december 2022

 

no for real. January