North West England Weather discussion 16/01/16 Onwards

[cheshire snow]

Just now, Chris.R said:

  Even if it does go wrong ...again, which it probably will, it's the build up, excitement and anticipation which I love .  I will carry on doing this, and it just makes it all the more satisfying when something finally does go right. 

I love the build up and excitement to 

one day it will go for us big time,just

not tonight,I hate sounding like a

misery,just so many let downs 

C.S

[Chris.R]

Another thing: If snow is heavy enough it will settle even after heavy rain. The process of melting is endothermic like evaporation. As a snowflake melts it takes in heat, reducing the temperature of it's environment. If enough snowflakes melt at once it seems plausible that you could reduce the temperature near the ground enough to allow snow to begin to settle. 

25/01/2013  is a good case in point. 

Edited March 3, 2016 by Chris.R

[SP1986]

11 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

If Carlsberg did snow:

Powder snow arriving from midnight for the whole region, only starting off heavy at first then as the night wears on full scale blizzards for several hours, gradually easing off to heavy snow before ramping up again through the morning! Eventually easing off in the afternoon.

Depths: on the coast 1 to 3 houses

inland a tad more

PS A red warning is also issued for icebergs, polar bears and penguins on any lakes and rivers....

epic adventure for penguins who had to waddle their way over the equator to get to this frozen barren wasteland.

The alternative, is what you just mention, except Wirral who will champion the growing of coconut palms, and tropical Yuccas.

[SP1986]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Another thing: If snow is heavy enough it will settle even after heavy rain. The process of melting is endothermic like evaporation. As a snowflake melts it takes in heat, reducing the temperature of it's environment. If enough snowflakes melt at once it seems plausible that you could reduce the temperature near the ground enough to allow snow to begin to settle. 

Metoffice suggests this, as ice is included in the warning, and doesn't necessarily limit it to inland, and besides, ice generally won't occur dangerously where freshly laid snow is, but it will be dangerous where the ground is wet, or snow is melting on impact, and undergoing the process of settling.

 

[Alexis]

All the best snow events in my mind always seem to be precededed by a bitterly cold day. An ordinary 7C day like today doesn't feel like the run up to anything of note. Completely unscientific, but pre-snow days are either sunny and crisp, or have a bitter stratus filled sky :-)

[pip22]

4 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Another thing: If snow is heavy enough it will settle even after heavy rain. The process of melting is endothermic like evaporation. As a snowflake melts it takes in heat, reducing the temperature of it's environment. If enough snowflakes melt at once it seems plausible that you could reduce the temperature near the ground enough to allow snow to begin to settle. 

Yes. At the right conditions it could settle within minutes. I witness this last year. It took place at night too.

[Darren Bown]

MetOffice have changed my location to pure rain for tomorrow.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Will be shocked to see any lying snow, will be surprised to see snow falling.

[karyo]

I wish I had the day off tomorrow. I would take a drive to the hills.

I expect Manchester to have rain with a bit of sleet mixed in maybe a brief period of wet snow if the weather gods are in a good mood. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Why do they include coasts inside the warning area if snow above 200M? I dont there too sure about how low the snowline will get.

[Chris.R]

8 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Why do they include coasts inside the warning area if snow above 200M? I dont there too sure about how low the snowline will get. see @sp1986  excellent post from before. 

 See SP1986's  excellent post from before. 

[frosty ground]

Some heavy Echos Over Ireland starting to appear http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ 

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Why do they include coasts inside the warning area if snow above 200M? I dont there too sure about how low the snowline will get.

I assume it's much easier than following the 200m height line around the areas affected, plus as per the previous comment

[Chris.R]

3 hours ago, SP1986 said:

If we look at the warning and analyse it closely, you get the sense that actually, the Met-office may well be concerned that snow could cause disruption to low levels too. The first wording they use is "Not currently expected to be disruptive at low level areas in most places".. this suggests actually yes there is a risk of heavy significant snow even down to low levels but it's too early to say, as it may change.. if they issue an amber warning, they may also alter the yellow warning for low areas, or perhaps, even include some low lying areas in the amber warning as they say "in some places" too, perhaps meaning..some low levels areas could see significant snow.. though at this current time, it is not expected.

The warning also says that lying snow could occur almost anywhere even at low levels, though here, amounts will be fairly small at 1-2cm. They also say it could be localised - which ties in well with the previous statement. 

However they do say that the snowline will retreat during the day, as it will get milder - and places like Mid-Wales and West Midlands have been removed off the warning, so it is going to be further north than expected.

 

 

 

[weatherobsuk]

The UK Snow-Forecast map run is showing a belter for the Northwest with 5-10cm of snow across the majority of Wales and NW, 15cm+ on the hills. GFS being more conservative with just 5cm on the hills. Just a case of watching and waiting now for the PPN to arrive.

[Frost HoIIow]

GFS pretty much going for a covering for the whole of Gtr Manchester. Less the further west you go in the county. Here in this part of Oldham 9cm. 15cm in higher areas of the borough (I did a street postcode so not on top of Saddleworth moor which would be even more snow), but half a foot of snow isn't shabby.

Edited March 3, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[Darren Bown]

BBC News' weather markedly drew snow away from lower ground on the forecast. Seems to think Peak District could get a lot of snow.

[northwestsnow]

35 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

GFS pretty much going for a covering for the whole of Gtr Manchester. Less the further west you go in the county. Here in this part of Oldham 9cm. 15cm in higher areas of the borough (I did a street postcode so not on top of Saddleworth moor which would be even more snow), but half a foot of snow isn't shabby.

If that happens i will glady eat my socks

[Darren Bown]

Tomasz At 5pm said that rural areas around Manchester could have a cm of snow.

[frosty ground]

Just now, Darren Bown said:

Tomasz At 5pm said that rural areas around Manchester could have a cm of snow.

Just the one 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Darren Bown said:

Tomasz At 5pm said that rural areas around Manchester could have a cm of snow.

LOL a cm, wow 

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Tomasz At 5pm said that rural areas around Manchester could have a cm of snow.

It would be nice to see snow falling at least. Still only managed to see sleet here this winter, really really dire this year

[Darren Bown]

Well when people are saying they won't get anything, a cm would probably be pretty exciting, for a snowless winter. No pleasing some! 

[Miamay]

Liverpool is forcast rain

[Weather-history]

Interesting cloud structure atm. Looks wavy or ribbed structured. Should be on my time-lapse.