April 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Weather-history]

36 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Looking like the first two spring months are going to be cooler than December. Has that happened before??

Off the top of my head it definitely happened in 1986. 

[Relativistic]

58 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Looking like the first two spring months are going to be cooler than December. Has that happened before??

This is from my post on page 5:

December 1687: 6.0 ---> March 1688: 3.5, April 1688: 5.5
                1781: 5.4 ---> 1782: 4.1, 5.2
                1828: 7.4 ---> 1829: 4.3, 6.7
                1852: 7.7 ---> 1853: 3.4, 7.6
                1921: 6.5 ---> 1922: 4.6, 5.5
                1985: 6.3 ---> 1986: 4.9, 5.8

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 24th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Weather-history]

First 4 months of the year colder than the previous November and December?

 

[The PIT]

No change for Sunny Sheffield at 7.6C. Unless we get some really code nights can't see us getting much lower as there isn't enough days left to make much of a dint. Certainly a plus 7C finish I reckon around 7.4C for us.

[Relativistic]

16 hours ago, Weather-history said:

First 4 months of the year colder than the previous November and December?

 

Has happened on 4 occasions:

Nov 1687 6.0C, Dec 1687 6.0C ---> Jan 1688 3.5C, Feb 1688 1.5C, Mar 1688 3.5C, April 1688 5.5C

1781: 6.5, 5.4 ---> 1782: 5.2, 1.9, 4.1 5.2

1828: 7.4, 7.4 ---> 1829: 0.3, 4.3, 4.3, 6.7

1852: 7.9, 7.7 ---> 1853: 5.1, 0.6, 3.4, 7.6

[Summer Sun]

8.2c to the 25th

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.5C

[DAVID SNOW]

Finishing number around 7.7 (before corrections) imo.

[Summer Sun]

8.1c to the 26th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1c below the 81 to 10 average

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 1.0C, while maxima look like reaching about 9C, so a drop to 8.0C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

7.8C to the 28th (4.4: -5.5)
7.7C to the 29th (4.9: -5.0)
7.7C to the 30th (6.3: -4.2)

Still a very cool end to the month, but not as exceptional as predicted back at the weekend. No daily records appear under threat either.
A finish of 7.6C to 7.9C before corrections, and 7.3C to 7.9C after corrections seems most likely now.
 

[Summer Sun]

8.0c to the 27th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited April 29, 2016 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

SS, I think the CET to the 27th is 8.0C (7.96C).

Minimum today is 0C, while maxima look like reaching the mid 9s, so a drop to 7.8C is likely if maxima remain below 10C.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

7.8C to the 29th (5.3: -4.7)
7.7C to the 30th (5.2: -5.3)

7.7C is still likely to be the finishing value, but +/- 0.1C is possible. Anywhere from 7.8C to 7.3C after corrections is possible.
 

[Summer Sun]

7.8c to the 28th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 1.5C, and maxima around 9.5C should see the CET at either 7.7 or 7.8C.

Tomorrow looks like averaging around 5.5C (min of 0C, max 11C), so finishing on 7.7C before corrections. After corrections, anything from 7.3C to 7.7C is possible.

Seems that April 2016 might have just 2 individual days (2nd 9.8C, 14th 10.1C) that averaged milder than all of December 2015 (9.7C).

[Roger J Smith]

Before Dec 2015 came along, no May had ever been colder than any December (8.5 being the coldest May in 1698, 8.1 the warmest Decembers in 1934 and 1974)  but now 33 Mays were colder than Dec 2015 with another four tied.

The closest any May CET value came to its antecedent December appears to be 1.8 for both 1935 and 1975 when Mays averaged 9.9 C. Third place goes to May 1869 which at 9.6 was 2.4 warmer than December 1868 at 7.2 C. And in fourth place was May 1899 which at 9.9 C was 2.6 degrees warmer than Dec 1898 at 7.3 C.

For this May to set a new record in that grim statistic, the mean will have to be 11.4 or lower.

The closest that any May would come to the following December was in 2015 when May at 10.8 "beat" December at 9.7 by only 1.1 degrees. Before that, the record was 2.9 (larger than any comparison in the other time direction) which was achieved in 1974 which had a May 11.0 followed by a December record 8.1 C. This matched 1898 when May at 10.2 was followed by a December at 7.3 C. and also 1852 when May at 10.6 was followed by a mild December (7.7 C) Close behind were 1821 and 1843 which managed only a three degree drop from May (9.4 and 10.4) to December (6.4 and 7.4 respectively).

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.1C now today could well break into double figures so if we hit 11C or below we drop to 7C coldest since 2012.

[Summer Sun]

7.8c to the 29th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum today of 1.1C, we will finish on 7.7C before corrections provided the maximum today is between 8.7C and 14.6C (almost certain). So after corrections, 7.3C to 7.8C is the range, with 7.6C probably the best guess.

[karyo]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

7.8c to the 29th

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

0.6c below the 81 to 10 average

It feels to me like a sense of achievement these days when the CET manages to get below the 61 to 90 average.

The succession of above average months (81 to 10) sometimes makes me feel like it is pointless to consider the old measure.

Edited April 30, 2016 by karyo

[Relativistic]

4 hours ago, karyo said:

It feels to me like a sense of achievement these days when the CET manages to get below the 61 to 90 average.

The succession of above average months (81 to 10) sometimes makes me feel like it is pointless to consider the old measure.

It's odd that you say that. Last year saw a few months below the 61-90 average, and the years 2010, 2012, and 2013 all saw plenty of such months. However, I do agree that the 61-90 average is probably the wrong average to be using.

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

It's odd that you say that. Last year saw a few months below the 61-90 average, and the years 2010, 2012, and 2013 all saw plenty of such months. However, I do agree that the 61-90 average is probably the wrong average to be using.

Yep, amazing how quick people forget, I remember this time 10 years ago when getting a below average month was seen an achievement. 

 

[Roger J Smith]

I would even say 1986-2015, why not use the most recent 30-year data available? (to be clear, our contest uses 1981-2010, it's the Met Office using 1961-90). So far there has been little change from 1981-2010 to 1986-2015 numbers as listed in our thread opening posts this year. Here's the full scoop on that:

Month ____ 1981-2010 __ 1986-2015

Jan ________ 4.4 _______ 4.6

Feb ________ 4.4 _______ 4.7

Mar ________ 6.6 _______ 6.6

Apr ________ 8.5 _______ 8.7

May _______11.7 ______11.7

Jun ________14.5 ______14.5

Jul ________ 16.7 ______16.6

Aug ________16.4 ______16.4

Sep ________14.0 ______14.0

Oct ________10.7 ______ 10.9

Nov ________ 7.1 _______ 7.3

Dec ________ 4.6 _______ 5.0

year _______ 10.0 ______ 10.1

 

December took quite a rise from 2015 (and losing 1981).

Just for the record, my CET forecast for May has been edited up to 12.7 C. I am going mini-Craig.

Also, the usual table of entries will appear (in the competition results thread) a bit later than usual, probably on Monday 2nd May, as I have weekend plans. So my table should catch all the late entries this time.

 

[Relativistic]

46 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Yep, amazing how quick people forget, I remember this time 10 years ago when getting a below average month was seen an achievement. 

 

Putting it another way;

2010 saw 7 such months
2011 4 months
2012 5 months
2013 7 months
2014 1 month
2015 4 months

So, out of 72 months during the period 2010-2015, 28 were below the 61-90 average. That's 39%. How many people would have seen that coming 10 years ago?

[BornFromTheVoid]

14 hours ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

Putting it another way;

2010 saw 7 such months
2011 4 months
2012 5 months
2013 7 months
2014 1 month
2015 4 months

So, out of 72 months during the period 2010-2015, 28 were below the 61-90 average. That's 39%. How many people would have seen that coming 10 years ago?

We could look at it from another perspective too.

If we class any anomaly from -0.49C to +0.49C as average, ≥0.5C as above and ≤-0.5C as below, we get slightly different stats.

For the 2010 to 2015 period and using the 61-90 average we get

Below      Above     Average
16           35            21
22.22%   48.61%    29.17%
 

For the individual years

2010    4
2011    1
2012    5
2013    4
2014    1
2015    1
 

Edited May 1, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid