April 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[BornFromTheVoid]

April is officially down as 7.5C on the rankings page here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

That's 1C below the 81-10 average, 0.4C below the 61-90 average, and the 118th coolest on record.

Congrats to SIMSHADY, ADERYN COCH for getting it spot on.

Edited May 1, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Relativistic]

I calculate the mean for the last week to be 5.6C, which would make it the joint 8th coldest last week of April on record, along with 1813 and 1919.

To find the most recent colder final week, one has to go back to 1906, whose final week had a mean of 5.0C.

Edited May 1, 2016 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[Don]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

April is officially down as 7.5C on the rankings page here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

That's 1C below the 81-10 average, 0.4C below the 61-90 average, and the 118th coolest on record.

Congrats to SIMSHADY, ADERYN COCH for getting it spot on.

There we have it.  1st month of 2016 to return a colder than 1961-90 average figure.

[sundog]

I had 7.6 for April ,just missed out by 0.1c, the same happened to me in jan,missed out by 0.1c then too. So ive been just short of spot on - on 2 of the last 4 months which isnt bad though.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Of the 30 days this month, 12 days were above the 81-10 average, 16 were below and 2 were exactly average.

Of the 12 above average .......................... ..................... Of the 16 below average
0 were in the top 25 .............................. ......................... 6 were in the bottom 25
0 were in the top 5 .................................. ......................... 1 was in the bottom 5

 

The total downward correction this April was -0.3C, from 7.76C to 7.46C, with 21 days seeing drops, 8 increases and 1 day with no change.

[Nouska]

32 minutes ago, Don said:

There we have it.  1st month of 2016 to return a colder than 1961-90 average figure.

That's even lower than the analogues were pointing to ( high sevens to low eights).

What do they suggest for May? Less clear cut as some thirteens in there but on balance, more in the high tens and low elevens.

[North-Easterly Blast]

A colder than average April confirmed, of which there have been very few of since 1989, and the first below average month since September 2015.  The coldest April of recent times was 2012 with 7.2*C, which we were still not able to beat this year and see the coldest April in 27 years.

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

A colder than average April confirmed, of which there have been very few of since 1989, and the first below average month since September 2015.  The coldest April of recent times was 2012 with 7.2*C, which we were still not able to beat this year and see the coldest April in 27 years.

Wasn't March below average? 

[The PIT]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Wasn't March below average? 

Average.

[Weather-history]

1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Average.

0.5C below the 1971-2000 average

So it lies in what average you use.

[Weather-history]

On 20 April 2016 at 10:03 AM, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

Top 20 coldest last weeks:

1808: 4.5

1857: 4.5

1782: 5.0

1906: 5.0

1826: 5.1

1877: 5.5

1829: 5.5

1813: 5.6

1919: 5.6

1941: 5.7

1887: 5.8

1908: 5.8

1799: 6.0

1838: 6.0

1922: 6.0

1989: 6.1

1981: 6.1

1848: 6.2

1927: 6.2

1803: 6.4

Looks like the coldest last week to April for almost a century

[BornFromTheVoid]

March (5.8C) was 0.1C above the 61-90 average, and 0.8C below the 81-10 average.

Last September was 1.0C below the 61-90 average, and we have to go back to March 2013 for the next month at least 1.0C below. However, since March 2013 there have been 18 months at least 1.0C above the 61-90 average, with 6 of those at least 2C above.

[J10]

Scores

Monthly -> As previously mentioned, AderynCoch and simshady both got it spot on.

Seasonal -> The top 3 is  Roger J Smith, The PIT and seaside 60, while seaside 60 would be in the lead without the 10pt late entry penalty this month.

Overall -> The top 3 is Roger J Smith, Don and Evening thunder, with Evening thunder having 20pts deducted due to late entries.

Documents ->

April 2016 CET New.xlsx

April 2016 CET New.pdf

Edited May 2, 2016 by J10

[BornFromTheVoid]

Edit: wrong thread!
 

Edited May 2, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Weather-history]

Strong El Niños and the following Aprils

1958: 7.4

1966: 7.2

1973: 7.0

1983: 6.8

1998: 7.7

2016: 7.5

The question for me is why? A statistical quirk? The Marches and Mays of those years were a mixture.