April 2016 C.E.T. forecasts

[Singularity]

I want to go for something interesting, but there's too much pointing towards the jet tending to be in the vicinity of the UK but not stuck on any particular side. In other words, temperatures varying around the average - but of course with a lot more unsettled weather than usual. Perhaps 'April Showers' kicked up a few gears. The risk of it being alarmingly similar to 2012 after a March that has also displayed a few similarities - but I'm hoping that the balance of warmer and colder weather turns out to be fairly even, as is the (vague, approximate) message I am gathering from the various indicators.

So I'll go for a drearily dull 8.7*C please 

[Roger J Smith]

Table of entries is posted in the competition thread here:

 

(edit on 1st April at 9:15 pm) ... now 69 entries so far, median value is 8.3 C.

Edited April 1, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[J10]

I should get a slapped wrist, me missing the deadline of  this competition.

Considering that a warm start to April is under way, I'll go for an above average score, which has not of yet been guesstimated .

9.1c

[crucible72]

Sorry it's a bit late, I'll go for 7.7

[seaside 60]

Not been about so late.

Will go for 7.8c please.

[Evening thunder]

Forgot! doh.. 8.0C please

 

[Summer Sun]

6.1c to the 1st

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

*81 to 10 stats unavailable at the time of posting*

[Duncan McAlister]

Whoops! 7.6 please.

[Roger J Smith]

April CET extremes and 1981-2010 averages

DATE ___ MAX yr _________ MIN yr ___________ CET _____ CET (cum to date)

01 Apr ... 13.3 (1995) ........ -0.2 (1917) __________ 8.3 _______ 8.3
02 Apr ... 13.9 (1835) ........ -0.5 (1917) __________ 8.1 _______ 8.2

03 Apr ... 15.0 (1926,1946) .... -0.5 (1799) _______ 7.4 _______ 7.9
04 Apr ... 15.6 (1946)......... 1.0 (1809&1830) _____ 7.1 _______ 7.7
05 Apr ... 13.3 (1857) ......... 0.4 (1911) __________ 7.1 _______ 7.6

06 Apr ... 15.1 (2011) ......... 0.8 (1911) __________ 7.5 _______ 7.6
07 Apr ... 14.7 (1859) ......... 1.0 (1839) __________ 7.3 _______ 7.5
08 Apr ... 12.5 (1798) ......... 2.4 (1780) __________ 7.2 _______ 7.5
09 Apr ... 13.5 (1778) ......... 1.4 (1812) __________ 7.5 _______ 7.5
10 Apr ... 13.5 (1928) ......... 0.5 (1837) __________ 8.2 _______ 7.6

11 Apr ... 16.0 (1869) ......... 1.3 (1978) _____ will edit in 11-30 later today
12 Apr ... 14.4 (1939) ......... 1.1 (1879)
13 Apr ... 14.6 (1792) ......... 1.1 (1816)
14 Apr ... 16.1 (1869) ......... 0.5 (1966)
15 Apr ... 16.3 (1945) ......... 1.4 (1966)

16 Apr ... 17.0 (1945) ......... 2.0 (1892)
17 Apr ... 14.9 (1865) ......... 2.1 (1793&1812)
18 Apr ... 14.5 (1945) ......... 1.7 (1807)
19 Apr ... 15.4 (1870) ......... -0.2 (1772)
20 Apr ... 16.6 (1893) ......... 2.3 (1849)

21 Apr ... 16.1 (1893) ......... 2.4 (1936)
22 Apr ... 15.4 (2011) ......... 3.4 (1778)
23 Apr ... 15.9 (1874) ......... 2.6 (1908)
24 Apr ... 15.3 (2007) ......... 0.5 (1908)
25 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 1.8 (1908)

26 Apr ... 16.1 (1928) ......... 3.3 (1981)
27 Apr ... 16.5 (1866) ......... 2.7 (1919)
28 Apr ... 16.9 (1775) ......... 3.0 (1826)
29 Apr ... 19.7 (1775) ......... 0.7 (1856)
30 Apr ... 17.4 (1775) ......... 2.6 (1945)

[Roger J Smith]

Any mod can delete the previous post, I am really having a lot of trouble with the edit function in this new format.

April CET extremes and 1981-2010 averages

DATE ___ MAX yr _________ MIN yr ___________ CET _____ CET (cum to date)

01 Apr ... 13.3 (1995) ........ -0.2 (1917) __________ 8.3 _______ 8.3
02 Apr ... 13.9 (1835) ........ -0.5 (1917) __________ 8.1 _______ 8.2

03 Apr ... 15.0 (1926,1946) .... -0.5 (1799) _______ 7.4 _______ 7.9
04 Apr ... 15.6 (1946)......... 1.0 (1809&1830) _____ 7.1 _______ 7.7
05 Apr ... 13.3 (1857) ......... 0.4 (1911) __________ 7.1 _______ 7.6

06 Apr ... 15.1 (2011) ......... 0.8 (1911) __________ 7.5 _______ 7.6
07 Apr ... 14.7 (1859) ......... 1.0 (1839) __________ 7.3 _______ 7.5
08 Apr ... 12.5 (1798) ......... 2.4 (1780) __________ 7.2 _______ 7.5
09 Apr ... 13.5 (1778) ......... 1.4 (1812) __________ 7.5 _______ 7.5
10 Apr ... 13.5 (1928) ......... 0.5 (1837) __________ 8.2 _______ 7.6

11 Apr ... 16.0 (1869) ......... 1.3 (1978) __________ 8.0 _______ 7.6

12 Apr ... 14.4 (1939) ......... 1.1 (1879) __________ 7.8 _______ 7.6
13 Apr ... 14.6 (1792) ......... 1.1 (1816) __________ 7.5 _______ 7.6
14 Apr ... 16.1 (1869) ......... 0.5 (1966) __________ 8.0 _______ 7.7
15 Apr ... 16.3 (1945) ......... 1.4 (1966) __________ 8.3 _______ 7.7

16 Apr ... 17.0 (1945) ......... 2.0 (1892) __________ 8.5 _______ 7.7
17 Apr ... 14.9 (1865) ......... 2.1 (1793&1812) _____ 8.4 _______ 7.8
18 Apr ... 14.5 (1945) ......... 1.7 (1807) __________ 8.1 _______ 7.8
19 Apr ... 15.4 (1870) ......... -0.2 (1772) __________8.1 _______ 7.8
20 Apr ... 16.6 (1893) ......... 2.3 (1849) __________ 8.4 _______ 7.8

21 Apr ... 16.4 (1893) ......... 2.4 (1936) __________ 9.2 _______ 7.9
22 Apr ... 15.4 (2011) ......... 3.4 (1778) __________ 9.4 _______ 8.0
23 Apr ... 15.9 (1874) ......... 2.6 (1908) __________ 9.7 _______ 8.1
24 Apr ... 15.3 (2007) ......... 0.5 (1908) __________ 9.7 _______ 8.1
25 Apr ... 15.9 (1821) ......... 1.8 (1908) _________ 10.1 _______ 8.2

26 Apr ... 16.1 (1928) ......... 3.3 (1981) _________ 10.1 _______ 8.3
27 Apr ... 16.5 (1866) ......... 2.7 (1919) _________ 10.1 _______ 8.3
28 Apr ... 16.9 (1775) ......... 3.0 (1826) __________ 9.9 _______ 8.4
29 Apr ... 19.7 (1775) ......... 0.7 (1856) __________ 9.9 _______ 8.4
30 Apr ... 17.4 (1775) ......... 2.6 (1945) _________ 10.5 _______ 8.5

[Summer Sun]

8.0c to the 2nd

1.7c above the 61 to 90 average

0.2c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 5.3C, while maxima look like reaching the mid to high 13s, so an increase to about 8.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

8.8C to the 4th (9.8: +2.7)
8.7C to the 5th (8.4: +1.3)
8.4C to the 6th (7.0: -0.5)
8.2C to the 7th (7.0: -0.3)
7.9C to the 8th (5.5: -1.7)
7.5C to the 9th (4.0: -3.5)
7.4C to the 10th (6.5: -1.7)
7.5C to the 11th (9.2: +1.1)
7.8C to the 12th (10.3: + 2.5)

Pretty variable over the next while, and likely to be within 0.5C on the 81-10 average after the first 1/3 of the month.
 

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 3rd

2.2c above the 61 to 90 average

0.6c above the 81 to 10 average

[Roger J Smith]

It's odd that the rolling CET goes down for the first week of April and we don't get back to the values of the first two days until almost the end of the month. It's also odd that both March and April have such warm endings in a year back in the 1770s (March 1777 and April 1775). The climate must have been a bit more variable back then (the end of January 1776 produced six consecutive record cold days).

Given how much warmer the period 1981-2010 was in April than other portions of the record, it's not like records were tumbling, I only see two (1st and 24th) in the period, then two more in the record warm month of April 2011.

What has changed, I gather, is that wintry cold is nowadays almost absent from April stats. The last record low in April was back in 1978 (11th). Two consecutive days in 1966 (14th-15th) are the only other ones since 1945.

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 4th

2.4c above the 61 to 90 average

0.9c above the 81 to 10 average

[damianslaw]

CET should take a tumble in the days ahead, and we are likely to be close to the 61-90 average come mid month, if the synoptics shown by the models come off.

[Summer Sun]

8.7c to the 5th

2.3c above the 61 to 90 average

1.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 8C which considering it's early April will be above average.

[iapennell]

Based on my Spring 2016 prediction, the synoptic patterns now predicted broadly agree with my early April 2016 prognosis, and my expectation of warm sunny days mid-month (but cold nights) and a possible very cold finish I will plump for a CET of 8.0C which is slightly below the long-term (1981 to 2010) April average.

[Summer Sun]

8.6c to the 6th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 4.3C, while maxima look like reaching the high 10s, so a drop to 8.4C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

8.3C to the 8th (7.8: +0.6)
8.2C to the 9th (6.9: -0.7)
7.9C to the 10th (5.1: -3.1)
7.8C to the 11th (7.5: -0.5)
7.9C to the 12th (8.8: +1.0)
8.1C to the 13th (10.4: +2.9)
8.3C to the 14th (10.5: +2.5)
8.4C to the 15th (9.7: +1.4)
8.5C to the 16th (11.1: +2.6)

The current forecast has things warming up during mid month, but no extremes forecast at all.
If the month was equal to the 81-10 average after the 16th, we'd finish on 8.9C before corrections.

An April cooler than the previous December is looking quite likely now too. This has occurred 7 times previously, most recently in 1988/89. The coolest April relative to the previous December occurred in 1921/22, when December 1921 had a CET of 6.5 and April 1922 was 5.5C. There is a reasonable chance of beating that this year.
On the other end of the scale, the mildest April relative to the previous December occurred (not surprisingly) in 2010/11, with a December of -0.7C and an April of 11.8C.

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 7th

2.0c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

8.5c to the 8th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[DAVID SNOW]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

8.5c to the 8th

2.1c above the 61 to 90 average

1.0c above the 81 to 10 average

It will all come out in the wash, but their figure looks too high to me

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7.8C would have been higher but we didn't quite as high temps further south.