Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[Ben Sainsbury]

Those lightning strikes in channel, could be anvil crawlerssss?

[Milocation]

YOU CAN MAKE IT!

[Spikecollie]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 12 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Fri 13 May 2016

ISSUED 18:53 UTC Wed 11 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Remnant convection will likely be ongoing across S / SW England first thing on Thursday morning, this clearing westwards to give sufficient insolation to develop isolated showers, more especially late afternoon into the early evening where low-level convergence (onshore flow plus topographical forcing) aids development. Forecast profiles suggest drying and warming aloft from the east through the day, therefore limiting depth of convection and resulting with the deepest instability becoming increasingly confined to the far SW. 

Lapse rates are once again fairly poor, despite high CAPE values forecast given relatively high dewpoints, and hence lightning will be fairly isolated (generally sub-SLGT criteria) with the main threat being local flash flooding from slow-moving heavy downpours in a high PWAT environment (high 20s mm). The strongest cells may perhaps produce hail up to 1.0cm in diameter, while relatively low LCLs and low-level convergence could once again produce a couple of funnels / weak tornadoes. Isolated elevated convection may affect parts of SE England on Thursday night.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-12

Nice! I'm flying back to the UK tomorrow and it could be a nice cloudscape. Wish it was an afternoon/evening flight as it would be even an better one.

[Speedway Slider]

Well, they've made it for a swim.....!!

[Bolt from the Blue]

Any webcams in Kent looking South?

[Spikecollie]

1 minute ago, Speedway Slider said:

Well, they've made it for a swim.....!!

The bunnies is going for it! Flotation devices deployed - check! I hope so.

Someone should be able to see strikes or at least CBs over the channel. Give the poor mites some credit for getting that far...

[Harry]

Bit concerning its all sweeping increasingly west. All very frustrating 

Edited May 11, 2016 by Harry

[paul_montague]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

Bit concerning its all sweeping increasingly west. All very frustrating 

Could still be a nice light show over the channel though. If only the fog would do one

[Cableguy]

Probably the only time this summer we'll see storms tracking east to west out of France. Although to be fair it is going to forecast so far.

[Mapantz]

Our Grimmers may get luck tomorrow - eh @William Grimsley?   

  

Edited May 11, 2016 by Mapantz

[Wet'n'Dry]

3 minutes ago, paul_montague said:

Could still be a nice light show over the channel though. If only the fog would do one

I think that is very unlikely. The 4 distinct storms exiting France and Belgium have decayed by more than 50% in the last hour.

Moving from over land to sea has killed the potential energy they're able to harvest and it's in my opinion a dead duck from here on!!

 

[Hector the Convector]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Our Grimmers may get luck tomorrow - eh @William Grimsley?   

  

Yeah looks like he may do well! Very heavy shower near his location now by the looks of it..

[Ellozee]

Can't see much looking S/E of here, just hazy with some darker cloud just on the horizon. Think if the storms make it across the channel they will still track south of me on the east Kent coast. Further along the south coast may get lucky though, but the further along you go the more water they have to cross. Hey, it's only May! Best storms I remember are usually not until late June to early Sept.

[Weatherbimbo]

It has gone very very misty here. Can not even see to the end of the road....

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Channel doing the norm and sucking the energy out of those storms..

 

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Channel doing the norm and sucking the energy out of those storms..

 

which, to be fair, is the expected thing for surface based storms this early in the season.....our time will come 

[Ellozee]

If only I had a tower of a few hundred feet, I could probably see them. Not going to trek up the cliffs now though, I'll just wait a few weeks until our first proper summer heat. Think this northerly and supposed cool patch has scared off the fun stuff this eve. At least it's not going to attempt to snow this weekend.

[William Grimsley]

Yeah, looks quite good for here, tomorrow! Anyway, me and Evening thunder have just been out driving through those torrential downpours! There was lots of surface water flooding both on the A30 and the M5, which along with the torrential downpours, was quite interesting to drive through! However, there wasn't a single flash of lightning! Very surprising to say the least!

Edited May 11, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Paul]

Can we drop the political/immigration stuff please, I know it started as a light hearted comment but lots of people prefer to stay clear of politics and the like so lets not take this thread down that road. 

[Cornishdave]

5 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Yeah, looks quite good for here, tomorrow! Me and Evening thunder have just been out driving along the A30 up to Fenny Bridges and then up the M5 to Cullompton Services and back through those torrential downpours! There was lots of surface water flooding both on the A30 and the M5, which along with the torrential rain, was quite interesting to drive through! However, there wasn't a single flash of lightning! Very surprising to say the least!

Yep it's raining heavy in Exeter, though I'm not surprised there's no lightning, I don't think the right mix of ingredients are there, earlier plent of dark clouds went up but not very far up, far enough for heavy rain but not thunder clouds, people getting over excited on here, wait til June when we get a week of real hot weather with a plume the end, oh I can dream, however good luck and I hope some will see storms :-) 

Edited May 11, 2016 by Cornishdave
Miss spell!

[stevofunnelcl]

the activity may be waning, but still, a good distant show for those on the south coast

every so often, the lightning detector goes crazy in that area

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, Cornishdave said:

Yep it's raining heavy in Exeter, though I'm not surprised there's no lightning, I don't think the right mix of ingredients are there, earlier plent of dark clouds went up but not very far up, far enough for heavy rain but not thunder clouds, people getting over excited on here, wait til June when we get a week of real hot weather with a plume the end, oh I can dream, however good luck and I hope some will see storms :-) 

I wouldn't say it was due to the height of the clouds but mainly to do with the conditions which were similar to yesterday (too much high level cloud).

[stainesbloke]

2 hours ago, chapmanslade said:

You should read the thread on here about storm types. Surface based storms in the Spring always struggle to cross the cold Channel. Later in the year is easier but the best imports are MCS or high based storms with no or little surface influence

Sounds interesting, I'll give that a read. Remembering back the best storms that crossed the Channel were in Summer proper, so I take it the water is too chilly still, for surface based storms especially. I still think it's odd that we seem to be under a storm-drought in the UK this last decade or so. No idea why, can only suggest the jet stream!

[Dean E]

Was hoping to get up to Butser or Portsdown Hill to see some distance strikes tonight, however, the sea fog has decided to pay a visit! 

[paul_montague]

That fog been a pain all afternoon here.