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Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

Harry

By Harry
in Storms & Severe Weather

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MattTarrant Aficionado

MattTarrant

Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
Posted

Lightning is still going, actually improving but probably temporary though! Still there is gonna be a lot of rain for some southern and south eastern coastal areas.

Blue area is where any electrical activity may just about sustain itself.

 

lightning.PNG

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Dean E Community Regular

Dean E

Posted
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
  • Location: Emsworth, Hampshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, paul_montague said:

That fog been a pain all afternoon here.

 

We've escaped it until around an hour ago and its just came straight in... The cheek! :rofl:

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<<Ryan>> Aficionado

<<Ryan>>

Posted
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
Posted (edited)

Left for the coast and the strike rates were 100+ per minute, got down here and I see its let up a lot. 45 minutes of not seeing a thing and I've finally seen a couple flashes!

I also notice that as soon as the light rain hit land our side it intensified a little, I wonder if it will continue to do so? :-) 

I'm in Hastings looking southeast by the way.

Edit: starting to hear very distant rumbles every few minutes now. Not expecting much, but a few flashes and rumbles is better than nothing.. Right? :-D 

Edited by <<Ryan>>
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

Looks like the Hastings area might actually experience a thunderstorm from France, tonight! Incredible!

Edited by William Grimsley
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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted (edited)

I posted this is my FB group earlier..
 

Quote

 

I dunno but the hi-res NMM forecast model has a small area of reasonable mixed layer CAPE for the night time hours in the southeast and east with an area of the most precipitable water falling inline with some convective precipitation in the forecast chart. Lapse rates not the best however we are under a plume of high theta-w and some decent theta-e readings also. I've noticed some reasonable DLS will be present at this time also that could help the not so encouraging lapse rates. I'm no night time storm expert so its just some thoughts based on a chart I don't usually use smile.

Storm track will be moving west southwest by the looks of things moving inland (if indeed anything does happen). See in the earlier timeline for todays convective forecast.

 

MLCAPE.pngpwat 11-05 - 12-05.pngconvective precip.pngDLS 1112-05-16.pngtheta-w 1112-05-16.jpgTheta-E 11-05-16 - 12-05-16.png

00Z - The remnant MLCAPE doesn't need surface heating and we have high theta-W values in the mix. The hope is that the cold surface waters wouldnt affect this energy and allow it to continue until UK landfall. The location of the convective precipitation isn't far wrong from the chart although is a much larger area. I was hoping that it would be moving a little bit north too as it seems to be heading due west or near. I think theres still time for nocturnal cooling to take effect and theres now a small band of heavy precip appearing more north to the main band. The energy does wain throughout the night. I don't usually use the NMM as I'm more inclined to take GFS's lower readings certainly for MLCAPE and DLS but you never know.

Edited by Greenday
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

We have initiation in Bruges that might wet the appertite in Kent:)

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted (edited)

Fresh strikes showing over Ostend west of Bruges.

Edit: funnily enough in that fresh cell I mentioned earlier.

Edited by Greenday
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Buckster Enthusiast

Buckster

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Essex and Kent had some fantastic May storms a few years back that came in from a near Easterly direction

so fingers crossed

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

What the hell!..

NMM PREV.pngNMM current.png

Huge difference between the previous NMM run to the current one! How did that happen?

 

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted
2 minutes ago, Greenday said:

What the hell!..

NMM PREV.pngNMM current.png

Huge difference between the previous NMM run to the current one! How did that happen?

 

Ignore that, we've had a data error on the hires Netwx (NMM) on the 12z. The lores is ok, but the hires on this run is all for the bin!!

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted
2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Ignore that, we've had a data error on the hires Netwx (NMM) on the 12z. The lores is ok, but the hires on this run is all for the bin!!

Ah ok so the the 06Z run is more the one to go by?

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Sferic activity has died unfortunately, although as expected. Nevertheless, orographical lifting of the downs would be the best bet of sparking something back up if there's a straw left to clutch. Either way, Sussex is now going to get a deluge! 

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<<Ryan>> Aficionado

<<Ryan>>

Posted
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
  • Weather Preferences: All weather extremes
  • Location: Hawkhurst (TN18) Kent
Posted

It's very dark, but as the heavy rain is approaching I can make out a very defined shelf cloud on this thing! Very windy from being completely still just now. 

No more lightning now however.

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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted

I understand fully, the lores looks more like it thanks for the info Paul.

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
Posted
4 minutes ago, Greenday said:

I understand fully, the lores looks more like it thanks for the info Paul.

No problem, we've rolled back now so it's only the 6z showing. 18z will load as normal later on. 

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Milocation Community Regular

Milocation

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, Buckster said:

Essex and Kent had some fantastic May storms a few years back that came in from a near Easterly direction

so fingers crossed

remember a storm 4 years ago in may, lightning struck 3 doors down, caused all the alarms in the local area to go off, the brightest fork and the loudest thunder I had ever seen and heard!!!

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Author
Posted

Nice! Some heavier looking precip developing too towards E Kent near Canterbury/Ramsgate - some tentative signs therefore that this rain may reintrnsify as it moves over land

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

Looks like the outflow from the decaying MCS is triggering some new convection / updrafts on its northern edge across Kent and Sussex, whether they will be strong enough for charge separation and much in the way of lightning remains to be seen, though strike detected near Eastbourne.

Like others have said, despite decent CAPE today, poor lapse rates created by the saturated atmosphere have meant cloud tops not really accelerating quick enough to a decent height for lightning.

Edited by Nick F
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Greeny Aficionado

Greeny

Posted
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny, stormy and I don't dislike rain only cold
  • Location: Norwich, Norfolk, East Anglia
Posted
1 hour ago, <<Ryan>> said:

It's very dark, but as the heavy rain is approaching I can make out a very defined shelf cloud on this thing! Very windy from being completely still just now. 

No more lightning now however.

I personally think even without lightning, a feature like a well defined shelf cloud is a winner in my book :) time for sleep for me. Good luck to those that could see something and will stay up to watch developments.

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

I don't think there's anything worth staying up for- it's weakening as was modelled, and will continue do so unfortunately.

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