Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Windblade]

I used to be terrified of them when I was a kid, but since my teens the fear turned into fascination. Now I love 'em!

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2016-06-13 08:59:38

Valid: 13/06/2016 06z to 14/06/2016 06z

CONVECTIVE / STORM FORECAST - MON 13TH-JUNE-2016

Synopsis

A slack cyclonic westerly flow upper flow covers the UK on Monday between an upper low over the mid-N Atlantic and upper low over NE Europe. A broad surface low pressure system extends from the mid-N Atlantic across UK/EIRE and east across Benelux and N Germany, low pressure circulations within this system moving east, one slowly-moving across Ireland today.

... EIRE/N. IRELAND, E WALES, S ENGLAND, E ANGLIA, MIDLANDS, N ENGLAND and SW SCOTLAND...

Like Sunday, Monday morning will see extensive cloud cover and showery dynamic rainfall from a frontal system moving through NEward. Following clearance of the front, cloud breaks will develop to allow surface heating of fairly moist airmass (PWAT values of around an inch) ... yielding 300-800 j/kg CAPE across the above areas. Water vapour imagery indicates a shortwave trough with associated drier mid-level air (darker stripe) and lobe of vorticity moving east across Ireland and SW UK this morning ... large scale ascent and steepening lapse rates from this feature combined with localised surface convergence and surface heating this afternoon should trigger scattered heavy showers and some thunderstorms.

Vertical wind shear looks to be rather weak again (20knts or less), so storms will struggle to organise and have much longevity. However, during the more stronger stages of storms, large rainfall totals in a short space of time are possible (15-25mm per/hr) ... leading to a risk of flash flooding ... particularly across northern and eastern parts of the area depicted for thunderstorms in the forecast map - where have highlighted a MARGINAL risk for severe weather, because storms will likely be slow-moving here .. with lighter winds aloft. Storms may also produce hail, gusty winds and occasionally frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.

Storms will be diurnally-driven, so should fade by late evening.

Issued by: Nick Finnis

[The PIT]

Oh we're in the marginal area. Nick you need to draw a circle round Sheffield and a red blob over Chesterfield as Chesterfield nicks all our storms just sucks them there.

[Harry]

18 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

When it comes to storms, I love the lightning but hate the sound, always have been the same. 

Thunder is my favourite aspect (and the bit that terrified me the most as a youngster). If it's all lightning and no peeling thunder, it's a bit of a disappointment for me. I'd rather 5 flashes and good peels than 50 flashes and all crackly boringness 

[Windblade]

Thanks for the forecast Nick. Its gently raining here at the moment (in brixton today). Hopefully it clears and we get some surface heating going!

[Windblade]

29 minutes ago, Harry said:

Thunder is my favourite aspect (and the bit that terrified me the most as a youngster). If it's all lightning and no peeling thunder, it's a bit of a disappointment for me. I'd rather 5 flashes and good peels than 50 flashes and all crackly boringness 

My favourite part is the calm before the storm. Everything goes absolutely quiet, the wind drops to nothing, birds stop singing and you're looking at the dark clouds approaching in the distance. You can literally sense the electricity building in the air...and then you hear it. A distant rumble of thunder, and another one getting louder and louder and more frequent. Then you see the first bolt of lightning streak across the sky and you know you're in for a treat. I love it.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Windblade

[BrickFielder]

Very similar modelling outlook to yesterday except NMM model  is not suggesting anything unusual.

Much more in the way of low level convergence zones suggested over the UK but not always in the regions of best instability.

Southern areas are much closer to the jet aloft so deep layer wind shear is a little better here.

Trawling through a number of forecast skewT's suggest a little low level veering of winds in places although there is not the marked difference between surface an cloud base wind speeds. More detailed modelling suggests perhaps a little strong winds at 925hpa so will be taking the forecast skewts with a pinch of salt.

Mid level humidity charts clearly suggest storm development behind the clearing frontal system, however looking closely at satellite pictures (EUMetsat seems to have a problem this morning) there is a suggestion that breaks in the cloud will be more widespread than yesterday.

Modelling also suggests storm development may continue into the evening a little longer than yesterday.

Main risks again are localized flooding.

 

 

[Pursuer of Storms]

Knowing my luck the storms will arrive just as I sit down for dinner again!  

[Emz by the Thames]

Just about in the marginal zone today, will rig up the camera. Last few days have been a let down but we live in hope!

Fear of thunder and lightning is has several names - brontophobia being one. I know this because my grandmother had it so bad. She used to turn the TV up loud, then hide in the under-stairs cupboard until the storm had passed. I had a phobia of it when I was little and couldn't bear to be alone during a storm, I'd wake the whole family up. It wqs strange really as I was a well-travelled, intrepid little tomboy, not really fearful so I don't know if the fear was innate or learned. It isn't normal asking your Dad if you can sleep inside a Faraday cage!!I still don't know if fear to T&S is nature or nurture. Surely we must be programmed to escape wide open spaces in a storm. It all changed a few years ago when me and my partner went to a county show. We encountered rain on the journey and parked miles away as the car park was full.  While walking over fields towards the arena, my partner turned to me and there was a look of horror on his face. 'What is happening to you hair?!' he said and snapped it on his phone to show me. I looked at the phone, my hair was stood upright with static. We were at least 2 minutes fast running time from the arena below....but we ran like hell!  Boom of thunder shortly afterwards left me shaking...but in a twisted way, addicted..Since then, I'd been addicted to the adrenaline rush of storms. 

Edited June 13, 2016 by Team Squirrel

[Darren Bown]

It's been pouring for the last 90 mins here. Very little wind, and the air is humid still.

[NUT]

Looks like some wetter weather about to hit here again. We have had some rain last few days but mostly been light and none of it thundery

[Windblade]

15 minutes ago, Team Squirrel said:

Just about in the marginal zone today, will rig up the camera. Last few days have been a let down but we live in hope!

Fear of thunder and lightning is has several names - brontophobia being one. I know this because my grandmother had it so bad. She used to turn the TV up loud, then hide in the under-stairs cupboard until the storm had passed. I had a phobia of it when I was little and couldn't bear to be alone during a storm, I'd wake the whole family up. It wqs strange really as I was a well-travelled, intrepid little tomboy, not really fearful so I don't know if the fear was innate or learned. It isn't normal asking your Dad if you can sleep inside a Faraday cage!!I still don't know if fear to T&S is nature or nurture. Surely we must be programmed to escape wide open spaces in a storm. It all changed a few years ago when me and my partner went to a county show. We encountered rain on the journey and parked miles away as the car park was full.  While walking over fields towards the arena, my partner turned to me and there was a look of horror on his face. 'What is happening to you hair?!' he said and snapped it on his phone to show me. I looked at the phone, my hair was stood upright with static. We were at least 2 minutes fast running time from the arena below....but we ran like hell!  Boom of thunder shortly afterwards left me shaking...but in a twisted way, addicted..Since then, I'd been addicted to the adrenaline rush of storms. 

When I was a kid I used to hide on the stairs in my old house. There were walls on every side and no windows so I felt safest there. Also if I saw a storm coming when I was at school I used to fake illness so I could go home and hide. Love storms now, but I remember what it was like to be frightened back then.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Windblade

[Chris.R]

 Obviously nothing is going to happen here today again, I'm not even going to bother looking out for it. I've said many times that if there's not enough southerly component to the steering flow then Merseyside can forget it. I'd love to be proven wrong. Just a bit of drizzle again this morning which is only now getting a bit heavier. Only 4.2 mm of rain...this month!

[William Grimsley]

@ajpoolshark, sorry to go off topic but I really want to help Gordon, I have my anxieties and the best way I tend to get over stuff (and it's what most people that help with this kind of thing recommend too) is to go out there and experience it. I have to agree with @Flash bang flash bang etc here, but Gordon I really don't mind you being afraid of them, but please try and not continuously post on the forum about it as it does start to turn the thread into a bit of a mish mash, I hope people understand where I'm coming from.

Anyway, back on topic, very cloudy here today with no sign of any torrential downpours though not really expecting anything myself.

Having said that, just looked at @BrickFielder's post and may chase today, what do you think, @BrickFielder?

Edited June 13, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Windblade said:

When I was a kid I used to hide on the stairs in my old house. There were walls on every side and no windows so I felt safest there. Also if I saw a storm coming when I was at school I used to fake illness so I could go home and hide. Love storms now, but I remember what it was like to be frightened back then.

I used to fake a sudden need to visit the little boys' room, so that I could watch the lightning.

[Summer Sun]

Warnings are out for today, tomorrow and Wednesday

Issued at:1033 on Mon 13 Jun 2016

Valid from:1200 on Mon 13 Jun 2016

Valid to:2100 on Mon 13 Jun 2016

Scattered heavy thundery showers are expected to develop, and will once again lead to slow-moving downpours across the warning area. Some parts will inevitably miss most, or all, of the heavier rain. Please be aware of possible localised flooding and disruption to travel. This is an update to the warning to slightly shrink the yellow area.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Low cloud will slowly break allowing temperatures to rise, triggering some heavy and slow-moving downpours. 15-25 mm could fall within an hour in scattered locations, bringing the risk of flooding, especially if across urban areas.

Issued at:1046 on Mon 13 Jun 2016

Valid from:1000 on Tue 14 Jun 2016

Valid to:2100 on Tue 14 Jun 2016

Scattered heavy, thundery showers are expected to develop again on Tuesday, and will lead to slow-moving downpours across the warning area. Many locations will miss these, but where they do occur, please be aware of possible localised flooding and disruption to travel.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

As with recent days, temperatures will rise on Tuesday and trigger some heavy downpours. These may locally produce 15 to 25 mm rainfall in an hour where they become slow-moving, bringing the risk of flooding, especially if across urban areas.

Issued at:1051 on Mon 13 Jun 2016

Valid from:1000 on Wed 15 Jun 2016

Valid to:2100 on Wed 15 Jun 2016

Scattered heavy, thundery showers are expected to develop yet again on Wednesday, and will lead to slow-moving downpours across the warning area. As on preceding days, some locations will miss these downpours, but please be aware of possible localised flooding and disruption to travel where they do occur.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

As on preceding days, the atmosphere will remain unstable such that the daily rise in temperature will trigger slow-moving heavy showers and thunderstorms. Once again, 15-25 mm could fall within an hour in scattered locations, bringing the risk of flooding, especially if across urban areas.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Warnings_Rain&tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1465772400&regionName=uk

 

Edited June 13, 2016 by Summer Sun

[William Grimsley]

Just seen there's an early warning out for torrential downpours on Wednesday around here!

[cheese]

18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I used to fake a sudden need to visit the little boys' room, so that I could watch the lightning.

I remember one day when I was in secondary school, some girl mentioned that the weather forecast earlier in the morning said there would be thunderstorms later that afternoon, and sure enough, we got a thunderstorm. It was during break so a lot of people got soaking wet. When classes started, most of us just went to the window and watched as it started hailing, lol.

Good times. I think one of the reasons I love thunderstorms so much is because I have so many memories of being absolutely captivated by them as a child. I would often take the living room chair, shove it against the window and watch it all unfold.

Edited June 13, 2016 by cheese

[Supacell]

Looks like I am well placed today. I am at work though so i won't be chasing again. I am a bit wiped out too after yesterday. It would be nice to get one come to me today, but hold off until after 6pm.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Supacell

[Windblade]

Just stopped raining here and looking brighter. Come on sun! Burn through the crud and heat that surface!

[Windblade]

7 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Looks like I am well placed today. I am at work though so i won't be chasing again. I am a bit wiped out too after yesterday. It would be nice to get one come to me today, but hold off until after 6pm.

I used to chase years about 16 years ago on my first bike - a 50cc derestricted moped (top speed 60+mph!)! It was all I had at the time and was able to skirt around traffic and other obstacles that would otherwise slow me down if I were in a car. These days with the congestion and bad roads in this country, coupled with the relentless speed humps, speed cameras and abundance of traffic lights its pretty much impossible to chase in a car in northern kent, and getting my new bike blasted by hail (and the general danger of riding around in high winds and storms) does not appeal, so instead of calling myself a chaser I now refer to myself as a "storm spotter" and prefer to wait for storms to come to my area. If it looks as though there is going to be a good area not too far from me heading further into kent where the roads are a little less congested I might be persuaded to give it a go in the car (I chased the northern lights in the isle of grain last year - about 25 miles away from me), but otherwise although I know its cutting down on my chances, I'm happy to wait and see if anything comes to me.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Windblade

[Frosty hollows]

2 hours ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I think William has a valid point. I understand what it's like to be afraid of storms as I used to be terrified, and yes you get a little obsessive about where and when they might occur so a forum like this is an ideal place to get that information, but posts saying how much you hope they won't happen aren't really what this forum is about - and the only way I got over my thunderphobia (or whatever it's officially called) was to sit out with my dad on a hill in Ireland and watch a storm approach. It was fascinating and changed they way I thought about severe weather and just wishing the storms away wouldn't have done that.

however, everyone is different and if you don't like storms and just don't want them to happen then fair enough but please consider that this is an enthusiast's forum so please only moan if you missed a good storm, not if you got one or there's one heading towards you cos that in itself offends all the people on here who like them! ;-)

I do understand how Gordon feels...I'm like it about high winds since I had a very near miss with an advertising hoarding! I do try to get as much info about impending high winds, but I try to keep away from people who love it and will ramp up events 20 days in advance as it just causes undue stress. Keep gathering information if helps , Gordon, but being surrounded by enthusiasts mightn't be the best place to get it (or at least skim past the specualtive posts). I was also terrified of storms as a kid and exposure worked for me. I now look forward to storms, though they seem a rarity round here! Now, if only I could get over my fear of flying!

[Mapantz]

I'd be quite interested to see what rainfall totals some of you folks have recorded during this period of convectivity?! I have seen one station at around 80mm for the month so far, but when broken down over the last four or five days, most of it has fallen within five to six hours. 

Just a piddly 4.8mm here. lol

Edited June 13, 2016 by Mapantz

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'd be quite interested to see what rainfall totals some of you folks have recorded during this period of convectivity?! I have seen one station at around 80mm for the month so far, but when broken down over the last four or five days, most of it has fallen within five to six hours. 

Just a piddly 4.8mm here. lol

Not a lot 31.9mm for the month so far. 19.4mm came last night. So no great shakes considering the amounts not far away from here.

[Windblade]

I welcome Gordons posts, I have no issue with him or his fear of storms at all. Just be aware though Gordon that you are on a storms enthusiasts forum so as others have pointed out you'll have to be mindful that most people on here will be looking forward to getting storms!

Edited June 13, 2016 by Windblade