Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Nick F]

It appears extensive cloud cover and consequent lack of sunshine, compared to Sunday, has suppressed strong convection today resulting in a distinct dearth of storms so far.

Tomorrow looks more promising though, with less frontal interference as low pressure moves over the UK plus more CAPE showing on both ECMWF and GFS.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Nick F

[The PIT]

Well I'm back at work which may do the trick but not expecting anything. Light rain continues here.

[Nick L]

26 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Temperatures effect cape do they not???

Yep, CAPE is a function of both temperature and moisture profiles.

[alexisj9]

The low cloud is clearing and see slower moving altocumulus some quite big above them, along with cas, and AC cas. If this develops then there will be storms, not related to durinul heating.

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

The low cloud is clearing and see slower moving altocumulus some quite big above them, along with cas, and AC cas. If this develops then there will be storms, not related to durinul heating.

You can't make an assumption it will thunder just from a cloud type I'm afraid.

[alexisj9]

Just now, William Grimsley said:

You can't make an assumption it will thunder just from a cloud type I'm afraid.

That's why I said if.

[Greeny]

Sun is comng out now as suggested by Norwich skew-t forecast for this time. Tomorrows skew-t for cloud cover looks more promising with RH (relative humidity) being low throughout the troposphere until it become saturated again at 18Z. Hopefully it will be a long enough window for the sun to do its work.

[Chris W]

I'm on a train south of Peterborough (heading south), cloud gaps are appearing and there is strong-looking convection to the west with blue skies ahead of it.  May be a chance of something yet.

[BA Baracus]

Been pouring down here for last 2 hours under that thin band of rain. It's just stopped over here and doesn't appear to be moving anywhere!

[William Grimsley]

1 hour ago, alexisj9 said:

That's why I said if.

Yes, but even if the cloud developed, it may still not mean thunderstorms...

[Paul1968]

Chucking it down here at the moment naff all thunder though unlike yesterday.

[matty40s]

Interesting looking clouds to the NE of Daventry. Quite cool though and no heat available now.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 14 Jun 2016 - 05:59 UTC Wed 15 Jun 2016

ISSUED 19:03 UTC Mon 13 Jun 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough continues to sit over the British Isles, while on Tuesday a surface low will slide eastwards from the Irish Sea to the Midlands. Once again, old frontal boundaries will continue to provide a messy mix of dynamic precipitation and excessive cloud cover, rotating around the area of low pressure. However, they also provide useful convergence zones which, with the help of daytime heating, could generate deep convection with the potential for heavy, slow-moving showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Forecast profiles remain fairly saturated and hence it is questionable as to how much lightning activity there will actually be - despite better instability to be found across north Wales / north Midlands towards The Wash, slightly drier profiles are signalled across southern England and so it may be here that has the true best potential for lightning. Considered a marginal/low-end SLGT for now, but with perhaps relatively better potential compared with Monday. In either case, wind shear is fairly weak and so cell organisation is unlikely, and the threat of severe weather is low aside from the ongoing risk of temporary local flash flooding.

Low cloud bases around convergence zones will bring the risk of a few funnels or even a weak tornado. Parts of central Ireland have the potential to be upgraded to SLGT, but for now concerns over extent of cloud cover preclude an upgrade at this time.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-06-14

[alexisj9]

44 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Yes, but even if the cloud developed, it may still not mean thunderstorms...

True so far just heavy showers 4 of them in a row now.

[William Grimsley]

Interesting risk tomorrow extending into Somerset, but simply cannot risk having another bust in the middle of Somerset, especially after the really intense torrential downpours of the past 2 days.

Tempting to chase, but most likely won't.

Edited June 13, 2016 by William Grimsley

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

12 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Interesting risk tomorrow extending into Somerset, but simply cannot risk having another bust in the middle of Somerset, especially after the really intense torrential downpours of the past 2 days.

Tempting to chase, but most likely won't.

In my eyes, if you aren't willing to chase, then it would be silly to moan if your area sees nothing. 

Yesterday I chased over 50-60 miles and back. Had I have stayed at mine though, I'd have seen not a single thing. Was worth every drop of fuel for what I witnessed! 

[Nick L]

Never chased in the UK before, the poor road network has always put me off...and the cost of fuel!

[Darren Bown]

Bit of a 'dud' today, but still 2 days more of chances. I think tomorrow is a better chance for round here, though I may be a bit north?

[Norfolk Sheep]

4 hours ago, Greeny said:

Sun is comng out now as suggested by Norwich skew-t forecast for this time. Tomorrows skew-t for cloud cover looks more promising with RH (relative humidity) being low throughout the troposphere until it become saturated again at 18Z. Hopefully it will be a long enough window for the sun to do its work.

Loving your optimism 

[Greeny]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Never chased in the UK before, the poor road network has always put me off...and the cost of fuel!

I tend to keep local when it comes to chasing, a lot of the time its not worth driving too far. I have gone a few more miles than just local but when I get back I think was it worth the time and fuel. Quite a lot of the time I think not although I know what a great storm is like as I've seen a few! That would definitely not be a waste of time and fuel however! If I was in the states with the potential they get then I would be doing a lot of miles chasing no problem cause the reward is likely to be a lot more. If a storm is in the vicinity then its a bonus and I like the atmosphere regardless of the intensity.

The roads round Norfolk ain't too bad the only thing is it doesn't open up for views enough and there are a lot of trees and hedges that can get in the way unlike the fens so it can get a little frustrating. Its good to map out the viewing spots and luckily enough there is one close to me overlooking Norwich airport and I've seen a few storms come through there include the low end supercell (I reckon) that arrived 11th of October 2014.

I have decided as of late to only go the extra mile when the potential is decent for possible severe weather. However a lot of the time the decision is made on the day.

Thanks Norfolk Sheep, I know its not been a good year so far but its always good to take 1 potential day at a time. Its a pity that shear has been weak so many convective days we could do with something stronger in general over the UK.

 

[Supacell]

1 hour ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

In my eyes, if you aren't willing to chase, then it would be silly to moan if your area sees nothing. 

Yesterday I chased over 50-60 miles and back. Had I have stayed at mine though, I'd have seen not a single thing. Was worth every drop of fuel for what I witnessed! 

Same here. Other than some distant thunder last Friday afternoon there have been no thunderstorms over Derby as yet during this thundery spell. However, I have seen lots of thunderstorms and some absolute belters, all of which are from chasing. I have done some horrendous miles in the last month, including an overnight stay sleeping in the car and a 2am get home last night before waking up at 6am for work. All worth it though, the videos I have recorded are now there for me to look back on at anytime. I can happily spend an entire evening just watching thunderstorms and chase footage I have filmed over the last 12/13 years.

[matty40s]

30 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Never chased in the UK before, the poor road network has always put me off...and the cost of fuel!

i chase a couple of times a year when I know the East Midlands is going to be ripe for storms, I know the back roads and viewpoints very well and can follow the terrain which gives rise to the best storm development.

It is torrential rain now here from the long rain front that has developed from Wales, through Birmingham and into Northamptonshire, indicated earlier by the picture i took - a few hours earlier and it could have given rise to T&L.

Tommorrow should be good as there is so much moisture in the ground already.

[William Grimsley]

I agree with everyone here, like I've said recently, I don't want to start driving over about 40 miles from home for thunderstorms even if they are going to be incredibly severe, as you say money isn't exactly plentiful for fuel at my age either...

It's incredibly difficult to work out whether to chase or not, but if you don't and you miss something, you kick yourself for not going and the only negative really of chasing and not seeing anything is wasting fuel but you still manage to get out and explore the countryside!

Edited June 13, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, matty40s said:

i chase a couple of times a year when I know the East Midlands is going to be ripe for storms, I know the back roads and viewpoints very well and can follow the terrain which gives rise to the best storm development.

It is torrential rain now here from the long rain front that has developed from Wales, through Birmingham and into Northamptonshire, indicated earlier by the picture i took - a few hours earlier and it could have given rise to T&L.

Tommorrow should be good as there is so much moisture in the ground already.

If you know the roads well it's not so bad. It would be much better if we had the 1 mile gridded, deserted roads of the plains

I'll be sleeping between night shifts tomorrow so no doubt we'll get some storms to disturb me...

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I agree with everyone here, like I've said recently, I don't want to start driving over about 40 miles from home for thunderstorms even if they are going to be incredibly severe, as you say money isn't exactly plentiful for fuel at my age either...

Buy a Tesla, make your own conductor to go on the roof, and hopefully some lightning will charge the batteries!