Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[stainesbloke]

36 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Kent clipper on the cards then. Definitely too far west here

Yep, yet again! The modern day plume seems to barely affect the UK anymore, shame.

[Mapantz]

The risk is certainly there, if it all comes together as w09 says..

I'm quite looking forward to seeing what happens even though i'm too far West. It's always an eye opener!

 

[Cableguy]

Yet another Kent clipper at best, been woeful in these parts this year

[Speedway Slider]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

We could be in for a few humdingers, if that comes off. Welcome to Royal Tunbridge Wells On-Sea!

Sorry, you've really put the kybosh on it now!!!

Why did you have to go and use the word "Humdingers"

Nice and quiet day expected tomorrow now........

[Harry]

Where has this Kent Clipper doom and gloom come from?

Have seen nothing that consigns it the KC bin (new term - Kent Clipper bin)

Defo some eastward shift on the WRF-NMM 06z but close enough to revise back westwards.

[Cableguy]

Nudging further east on every run and if this continues then even Kent will miss out, was always going to be a close run thing in the first place, knowledgable posters on other sites seemingly ruling out anything at all for the UK

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Anyone seen net weather high res? The free version dam, it's been on the morning booze 

[weather09]

5 minutes ago, Cableguy said:

Nudging further east on every run and if this continues then even Kent will miss out, was always going to be a close run thing in the first place, knowledgable posters on other sites seemingly ruling out anything at all for the UK

Be good to know the names of these 'knowledgeable' posters. They seem to crop up each year. Names would be handy, then I can ask them why they are ruling out storms affecting the UK at all.

[Harry]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Anyone seen net weather high res? The free version dam, it's been on the morning booze 

All I can say is I soooooooooooooo wish I was able to go down the Kent coast tomorrow night...to cap it off, am in solid meetings all day on Thursday so will miss any home growns.

[Ben Sainsbury]

GFS 12z rolling out, looks like central areas seeing a storm or two tomorrow, wednesday night into thursday looks the same.

[Greeny]

Certainly when storms are more organised unlike the recent convective period where storms were pulsing in nature, they can go on for much longer as the updrafts are separated from the downdrafts so no downdraft choking off the updrafts. With supercells these storms can go on for hours and travel a very long way. With DLS in the mix, these next couple of days are a different kettle of fish.

[stainesbloke]

52 minutes ago, Harry said:

Where has this Kent Clipper doom and gloom come from?

Have seen nothing that consigns it the KC bin (new term - Kent Clipper bin)

Defo some eastward shift on the WRF-NMM 06z but close enough to revise back westwards.

Hmm, it'll take quite a shift westwards to be of any interest for me. I fully expect a cloudy humid day with drizzle here with the near continent baking in lovely hot sun then battered by massive storms. Of course, it could all move westwards but the very slight but continual shunting east doesn't bode well. Just my humble opinion and would love to be wrong.

[alexisj9]

Is anything supposed to happen today, as I have some interesting clouds about now. May be it's just tomorrow instability arriving. 

[Stormyking]

It hasn't been tracking further and further east, if anything its been the same position for the last 4/5 runs, Looks as though a wave of Elevated Showers/Storms reaches the South Coast and South East coast in the Evening, Anywhere from the Isle of Wight Eastwards. Then the MCS area then moves up across the same areas, though where I am for the 2nd wave maybe a little too far west, but from Bognor Regis. I really dont think this is just a Kent clipper and in my opinion from what iv'e been seeing the majority of the South East is in with a very decent shout of seeing something. Still time for things to change with 24 hours to get even!

[Tom Jarvis]

Anyone in Sussex area thinking of chasing will be willing to join anyone after work on Thursday. I finish at 4:30 

[William Grimsley]

Unstable looking skies here in Cornwall, good luck SE!

[Mapantz]

I've been mooching at some off the lesser known models (which have come up trumps a fair few times) they have things starting out a touch further West than the main ones, not by much, but very similar to the NetWx SR model. It would suggest some heavy rain, with the core of the action reserved for the SE still. It's an open goal still..

[Costa Del Fal]

If the current GFS comes off, could be more slow moving thundery downpours this Friday-Sunday. This area could do without the heavy rain after last weeks floods but potential there for a very similar story to last week for some. One to watch. So much to clear up in the local nature reserve here which has seen devastation in parts and lots of conservation efforts which need to begin again.

[weather09]

Latest Met synoptic output has cold front oriented SW-NE from IOW to the Wash 12z Thurs.  Along and to the E of the boundary potential for severe thunderstorms, initially potential elevated storm clusters/MCS surging NE over SE/EA Weds evening and into early Thurs:

 

...then more heightened risk of severe convective weather during daytime with heating of very moist boundary layer air mass - 12z Euro4 modeling a 18C dewpoint for midday Thurs around London. 

Might be potential for squall line/line segments in association with CF given strong deep layer shear, heightening large hail and strong downdraft wind risk. Supercell risk dependent on discrete storm development, but a bit more uncertain. If the positioning/timing of cold front remains unchanged between now and period in question, anyone who thinks there's no risk at all would be wise to provide reasoning.  

Sure enough, might be last minute alterations which sees main push of WAA barely clip our shores... but ain't seeing that on current outputs.

Edited June 21, 2016 by weather09

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, weather09 said:

anyone who thinks there's no risk at all would be wise to provide reasoning.  

What did I miss? Someone said there's no risk? lol

[A.J]

personally, I'd take Nick F, Brickfielder, W09 & Dan's (Staplehurst) forecasts over other 'mystery' knowledgeable members from  other forums every day of the week......but hey, that's just my opinion 

[stainesbloke]

39 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

It hasn't been tracking further and further east, if anything its been the same position for the last 4/5 runs, Looks as though a wave of Elevated Showers/Storms reaches the South Coast and South East coast in the Evening, Anywhere from the Isle of Wight Eastwards. Then the MCS area then moves up across the same areas, though where I am for the 2nd wave maybe a little too far west, but from Bognor Regis. I really dont think this is just a Kent clipper and in my opinion from what iv'e been seeing the majority of the South East is in with a very decent shout of seeing something. Still time for things to change with 24 hours to get even!

GFS has been shifting storm potential eastwards every run (to my very amateur eyes), only by 25 miles or so each time but it all adds up. Not long to wait to see what actually happens; pretty certain some places will see some quite nasty storms, I just think it will be the other side of the water, as has been the usual form in recent years. Again: happy to be wrong!

[A.J]

NMM hi-res modelling infers that it's own output would have to be quite badly wrong for there not to be a plethora of elevated thunderstorms tomorrow night for parts of the SE quarter in the form of a mcs

        

     

 

[weather09]

Thing is, storms may very well stay over the continent come the time, but the fact is all current outputs are showing storms tracking across SE/EA during Weds evening/early Thurs, then further sfc based risk during Thursday afternoon.  So you can say that the UK will end up getting no storms, but either then provide actual reasoning as to why you think that is more likely, or let me know where you purchased your crystal ball. 

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, weather09 said:

Thing is, storms may very well stay over the continent come the time, but the fact is all current outputs are showing storms tracking across SE/EA during Weds evening/early Thurs, then further sfc based risk during Thursday afternoon.  So you can say that the UK will end up getting no storms, but either then provide actual reasoning as to why you think that is more likely, or let me know where you purchased your crystal ball. 

you talking to me?